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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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Pattern Evolving

12Z GFS 11/24 Turkeyday looks very reasonable for a late November scenario for the weekend. Main system holds over the Lakes with rain & snow showers/flurries

behind it across southern Lakes. The GFS has been more consistent last few runs with dumping all its eggs /500 H&V/ in the north which is certianly more typical for this time of year. We are now leaving the later stages of Autumn development and a further south scenario Ohio Valley scenario is on the doorstep. I realistically like to see this kind of scenario with energy (at least) diving into the Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley this early as hopefully mom nature is paving the way for storm development. I can see the Pacific jet will be a friend/foe all winter and where the troughing gets settled will make all the difference in the world for east of the Miss. Our real key will be the interaction of the NAO/AO with the Pacif Jet. Too much and the storm track stays more south & east coast way, too little and she clobbers the Upper Midwest...just right and look out. One thing I do like besides this early "south" development is the wind maxs in the Pacific already rearing their stormy heads, could make for quite the storm for someone this winter with all that energy.

I have yet to see a winter where Mom-Nature didn't begin to expose some of her playing hand for the winter by Nov (and why I like to wait for my WO) and the scenario in my WO is beginning to play out with analogue pattern already teasing us (and the models).

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Pattern Evolving

12Z GFS 11/24 Turkeyday looks very reasonable for a late November scenario for the weekend. Main system holds over the Lakes with rain & snow showers/flurries

behind it across southern Lakes. The GFS has been more consistent last few runs with dumping all its eggs /500 H&V/ in the north which is certianly more typical for this time of year. We are now leaving the later stages of Autumn development and a further south scenario Ohio Valley scenario is on the doorstep. I realistically like to see this kind of scenario with energy (at least) diving into the Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley this early as hopefully mom nature is paving the way for storm development. I can see the Pacific jet will be a friend/foe all winter and where the troughing gets settled will make all the difference in the world for east of the Miss. Our real key will be the interaction of the NAO/AO with the Pacif Jet. Too much and the storm track stays more south & east coast way, too little and she clobbers the Upper Midwest...just right and look out. One thing I do like besides this early "south" development is the wind maxs in the Pacific already rearing their stormy heads, could make for quite the storm for someone this winter with all that energy.

I have yet to see a winter where Mom-Nature didn't begin to expose some of her playing hand for the winter by Nov (and why I like to wait for my WO) and the scenario in my WO is beginning to play out with analogue pattern already teasing us (and the models).

:thumbsup:

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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00z UKMET looks like it wants to cutoff at 72. Mercy.

Here is a 00z GFS/UKMET overlay. GFS is color shaded and UKMET is white lines. Hard to be more different than this at 72 hours.

post-14-0-28490400-1322197665.gif

FWIW, and probably not much, the 12z JMA and NOGAPS were leaving a lot of energy behind as well. American models against the world.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

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Here is a 00z GFS/UKMET overlay. GFS is color shaded and UKMET is white lines. Hard to be more different than this at 72 hours.

post-14-0-28490400-1322197665.gif

FWIW, and probably not much, the 12z JMA and NOGAPS were leaving a lot of energy behind as well. American models against the world.

And then this UKMET low slowly moves NNE from there, doesn't it? It did with the 12z run.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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Here is a 00z GFS/UKMET overlay. GFS is color shaded and UKMET is white lines. Hard to be more different than this at 72 hours.

FWIW, and probably not much, the 12z JMA and NOGAPS were leaving a lot of energy behind as well. American models against the world.

0z GGEM also cuts it off still too.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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Yep, new 12Z GFS back teasing SE MIch with deformation zone as the two jets interact. It ain't over till it's Dec on this storm, LOL If we could just see a phasing begin over the Eastern Lakes BEFORE she runs into Canada. At least the Jet core is far enough south in the southern stream but will the northern stream move fast enough to "mate" LOL!

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

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