Predict the first widespread snow and/or ice event for the southeast

[Carvers Gap]

The first widespread Winter event of the SE will be from a southern tracking SW, spawning a surface low over northern MS. HP will be wedging down from east of the Apps. The surface low will track East, weaken, and transfer energy to a coastal, just off the northern SC coast. Light snow will break out in northern MS, AL, and most of TN, eventually extending into northern GA (north of Atlanta), where more of a wintry mix will be seen. It should be mainly snow or snow/sleet in the western NC Piedmont, with the Foothills and mountainsperhaps in the snow jackpot area, picking up between 6-10". The upstate of SC north of GSP and Columbia will see a snow, sleet, zr combo, but central sections of the area as well as the central part of NC might see a relative min in precip (wintry mix) as the coastal takes over. Eastern NC might see a short period of IP/ZR, but the p-type will be predominately rain. All in all, this should prompt WSWs and WWAs across many areas and will be a nice early winter event. The 19th/20th of December seems the most likely time for this to occur. A few areas may pick up some minor winter activity before this time period, but this should be the first major event of the season. And it won't be the last.

You didn't say how much we were going to get in the Tri-Cities, TN. What does the qpf on the long range Euro look like? I can' see it w/ my account. Just kidding of course.

You have the mojo for sure after the past few years. If you hit again this year, they may name their next weather model Cold Rain. On a side note, I'm just glad it's not 90+ degrees anymore - so glad for a break from that!

[Isopycnic]

How about a few rules:

1) Has to effect three or more states in the southeast. ---Not starting in NC and running up the coast.

2) Has to affect (at least some) areas below 2000 feet in each state. ---Sorry mountain people but you guys get snow with almost ever system starting in Dec.

3) There has to be a general consensus that this is a major event. ---Maybe winter storm warnings in the three or more states, below 2000 feet.

.

What do you guys think?

[jrips27]

January 11, 2012. Widespread 3-6" from Atlanta up I-85.

[dsaur]

The first widespread Winter event of the SE will be from a southern tracking SW, spawning a surface low over northern MS. HP will be wedging down from east of the Apps. The surface low will track East, weaken, and transfer energy to a coastal, just off the northern SC coast. Light snow will break out in northern MS, AL, and most of TN, eventually extending into northern GA (north of Atlanta), where more of a wintry mix will be seen. It should be mainly snow or snow/sleet in the western NC Piedmont, with the Foothills and mountainsperhaps in the snow jackpot area, picking up between 6-10". The upstate of SC north of GSP and Columbia will see a snow, sleet, zr combo, but central sections of the area as well as the central part of NC might see a relative min in precip (wintry mix) as the coastal takes over. Eastern NC might see a short period of IP/ZR, but the p-type will be predominately rain. All in all, this should prompt WSWs and WWAs across many areas and will be a nice early winter event. The 19th/20th of December seems the most likely time for this to occur. A few areas may pick up some minor winter activity before this time period, but this should be the first major event of the season. And it won't be the last.

Sir! Because of your track record, and the fact you reside in the Carolinas, I must request you revisit your definition of "wide spread". I can assure you that any mention of "wide spread" across the deep south must include at least light sleet/zrain down to the northern burbs of Macon, lol. Otherwise it is just another ordinary hit for those spoiled north Atl. folks And Psalm and I, and Fide and Candyman would all have to take umbrage, lol.

Thank you for your kind re-consideration! T

[Cold Rain]

You didn't say how much we were going to get in the Tri-Cities, TN. What does the qpf on the long range Euro look like? I can' see it w/ my account. Just kidding of course.

You have the mojo for sure after the past few years. If you hit again this year, they may name their next weather model Cold Rain. On a side note, I'm just glad it's not 90+ degrees anymore - so glad for a break from that!

Sorry! The Tri-Cities area should get a few inches. Main problem is, the ground will still be warm for the most part almost everywhere, so it'll probably melt quickly. But that's ok. You'll do better with the Jan. 2 storm!

And I'm with you on the 90s thing. I don't know if anyone else feels like this, but this year, for the first time in a good while, seems like Fall to me. I've kind of felt like for the past few years, like we've transitioned quickly from Summer to Winter with a very short period of Fall-like conditions. It just seems different this year. I like it!

[kanc2001]

Columbia is fastly becoming the new snow capital of SC, with that said I hope us coastal guys can cash in this winter. Im calling Jan 3-4 for first big region wide event. general 6-9" on the I-20 corridor from ATL to FLO on up the I-95 corridor to VA line. lesser Amounts west and east of that line

[Cold Rain]

Sir! Because of your track record, and the fact you reside in the Carolinas, I must request you revisit your definition of "wide spread". I can assure you that any mention of "wide spread" across the deep south must include at least light sleet/zrain down to the northern burbs of Macon, lol. Otherwise it is just another ordinary hit for those spoiled north Atl. folks And Psalm and I, and Fide and Candyman would all have to take umbrage, lol.

Thank you for your kind re-consideration! T

Fear not! This is just the FIRST storm of the season. Your good one comes later. If the wedge is strong enough, you might pick up a few IP at the onset but nothing to really get excited about....yet. Besides, I'm screwed too; I'll be in the dry slot!

[valkhorn]

Everyone's just posting mid-December for their area. This thread is garbage.

Mid December is quite reasonable for the Nashville/Knoxville area. Early December is more likely for the Cumberland Plateau or NE TN. If I was living above 4500' in TN or NC, I would have gone with mid to late November if it hasn't happened already.

I didn't put down mid December for areas south of TN though. I put down mid January. If you don't think that's reasonable, then I don't know what to tell you.

[DaculaWeather]

Snow in the Arctic in December.

Seriously, some places in Georgia will see an early dusting the last week of November.

[WXinCanton]

Dec 22nd, 1 to 2 inches north GA through the upstate

[tnweathernut]

How about a few rules:

1) Has to effect three or more states in the southeast. ---Not starting in NC and running up the coast.

2) Has to affect (at least some) areas below 2000 feet in each state. ---Sorry mountain people but you guys get snow with almost ever system starting in Dec.

3) There has to be a general consensus that this is a major event. ---Maybe winter storm warnings in the three or more states, below 2000 feet.

.

What do you guys think?

It's for a little gift card, not a new car. I think the guy giving the card away should make all the rules. haha

[dsaur]

Fear not! This is just the FIRST storm of the season. Your good one comes later. If the wedge is strong enough, you might pick up a few IP at the onset but nothing to really get excited about....yet. Besides, I'm screwed too; I'll be in the dry slot!

That you would fantasy predict yourself into a dry slot, shows your vast confidence in a stellar winter out ahead, thus I am content

I am however concerned that folks in other states, and even in Ga. (that's you, Justin) believe that Ga. ends at I 20, and below that line on the map are written the words, "here be monsters" T

[LithiaWx]

If anyone gets a decent winter in the southeast this year I'm putting my money on the mountains of TN and NC of course. Outside those areas I think this is the season for most of TN and KY. If I had to guess I'd go with January 15th - 17th in this general area which matches the area where I think has the best chance at a decent season.

[Lookout]

I'll say late december...although I'm hoping for an early surprise.

[valkhorn]

If anyone gets a decent winter in the southeast this year I'm putting my money on the mountains of TN and NC of course. Outside those areas I think this is the season for most of TN and KY. If I had to guess I'd go with January 15th - 17th in this general area which matches the area where I think has the best chance at a decent season.

Mt. Leconte averages about 80" a year. I'm pretty sure they'll have a decent season - they always do. Plus, the first upslope snow there has already happened. They'll probably get an upslope snow after at least every other cold front from late November until early March.

[LithiaWx]

Mt. Leconte averages about 80" a year. I'm pretty sure they'll have a decent season - they always do. Plus, the first upslope snow there has already happened. They'll probably get an upslope snow after at least every other cold front from late November until early March.

I don't know anything about snow being from Georgia so I will have to defer to your infinite wisdom on snowfall.

[Cold Rain]

That you would fantasy predict yourself into a dry slot, shows your vast confidence in a stellar winter out ahead, thus I am content

I am however concerned that folks in other states, and even in Ga. (that's you, Justin) believe that Ga. ends at I 20, and below that line on the map are written the words, "here be monsters" T

If my prediction fails, it will fail confidently. I can guarantee you that! But the fact that we're not looking at a Winter pattern anytime soon, actually doesn't bode that badly for a better pattern come mid-December.....so we'll see!

[Brick Tamland]

December 28

[superjames1992]

Post your guesses here as to when you think the first widespread snow/ice event will occur for us here in the southeast. Be as specific or as vague as you like in your prediction. Just thought this would be fun. Besides, what else do we have to do while we wait on the pattern to flip? I will go first.

December 10-12th. General 3-6 inch snow event from north Alabama/Georgia, southeast Tennessee and into North Carolina. Will give DCA a few flurries before scooting out to sea. haha

February 12th, 2012.

Weenie suicides widespread during January.

Just kidding!

In all seriousness, I will say December 20th, but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a truly widespread event until January.

[valkhorn]

I don't know anything about snow being from Georgia so I will have to defer to your infinite wisdom on snowfall.

I take back the post you were referring to - besides it was meant in jest.

However, your last post didn't show you knew much about the climate of the higher elevations of the Apps..., so I just calls 'em like I sees 'em.

[LithiaWx]

I take back the post you were referring to - besides it was meant in jest.

However, your last post didn't show you knew much about the climate of the higher elevations of the Apps..., so I just calls 'em like I sees 'em.

Well that's nice, and I appreciate you reconsidering that comment.

The mountains of NC and TN do have below normal snowfall winters, to try and portray otherwise is wrong. A decent winter for Mount Leconte is like you said 80". They could end up with a 50" winter and still not have a decent one for them. I guess I just did not understand why you honed in on one line of my post and acted like I know nothing about mountain snows. Honestly you should just tone things down a notch and not assume everyone else on this board is an idiot when it comes to climate and weather. You are constantly butting heads with people and it's really a turn off.

[FallsLake]

It's for a little gift card, not a new car. I think the guy giving the card away should make all the rules. haha

I agree, and heck it's way to late now anyway.

[WeatherNC]

Dec 26th & 27th, month starts out cold, warms up a week before Christmas, and flips back to the freezer after a big storm ---> Disclaimer: Don't make ski reservations just yet

[jrips27]

That you would fantasy predict yourself into a dry slot, shows your vast confidence in a stellar winter out ahead, thus I am content

I am however concerned that folks in other states, and even in Ga. (that's you, Justin) believe that Ga. ends at I 20, and below that line on the map are written the words, "here be monsters" T

haha, I'm just saying thats where I think the main snowfall will be. Looking into my crystal ball, it says you'll get ~3" of IP from this same storm.

I see you smiling and jumping for joy.

[LithiaWx]

haha, I'm just saying thats where I think the main snowfall will be. Looking into my crystal ball, it says you'll get ~3" of IP from this same storm.

I see you smiling and jumping for joy.

lol

[dsaur]

haha, I'm just saying thats where I think the main snowfall will be. Looking into my crystal ball, it says you'll get ~3" of IP from this same storm.

I see you smiling and jumping for joy.

Lol! You are indeed prescient my young sir!! And may treasures fill your house T

[Shawn]

Feb. 12-13, 2012 for a widespread.

[Jon]

Ehhh without looking up anything, Dec 26th 1-3'

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The first widespread snowfall will be the week of December 12th. Cold air will be firmly entrenched and a strong low pressure will form in the Northern Gulf and bring widespread snowfall mostly along and south of I-20. Widespread 3-6" in a band from Jackson,MS to Atlanta GA and points south. The snow will fizzle out by the time it gets to the Carolinas leaving them high and dry.

[jrips27]

The first widespread snowfall will be the week of December 12th. Cold air will be firmly entrenched and a strong low pressure will form in the Northern Gulf and bring widespread snowfall mostly along and south of I-20. Widespread 3-6" in a band from Jackson,MS to Atlanta GA and points south. The snow will fizzle out by the time it gets to the Carolinas leaving them high and dry.

As if they didn't hate you already...