December 14th and onward discussion thread

[eyewall]

Hopefully won't have to go far if this pans out... Granted, would rather stay here and get dumped on, but living in the Coastal Plain of NC, I have come to terms with the fact travel is often necessary to see a good SN-storm.

Yeah very true although I miss the days where we had more consistent weather with RDU when it came to snow (early 2000s - very east-west based). At least that is how winters went when I first came to NC. What I really need to do though is move back to snow country.

[WeatherNC]

18z ens mean, should be some interesting members once they come out on Allan's site. Clips the MA after this, but wide right for NE and OTS

[neatlburbwthrguy]

does the northern third of ga stand a chance to receive any snow or sleet on wed? im not seeing much mention if it on here but the local mets are acting like it maybe a big deal? thoughts please...

[DopplerWx]

18z ens mean, should be some interesting members once they come out on Allan's site. Clips the MA after this, but wide right for NE and OTS

Looks good to my with it being 5 days out. Plenty of time for a westward trend and for temps to trend colder over the next few days.

[dsaur]

does the northern third of ga stand a chance to receive any snow or sleet on wed? im not seeing much mention if it on here but the local mets are acting like it maybe a big deal? thoughts please...

My point forecast says it starts with freezing rain, and warms up into rain. The whole forecast up through the weekend cold rain seems reasonable to me due to it's Dec. and climo says mostly no in Ga. But we've already seen flakes as far south as me, and it is colder tonight probably than it was all last year for me...so stay tuned..all we want it to be on the bleeding edge with at least a chance to fall over onto the good side. Some of my best storms started off as cold rain, and it all went crazy from there It's Ga..... can't be holding your breath. T

[kanc2001]

Looks good to my with it being 5 days out. Plenty of time for a westward trend and for temps to trend colder over the next few days.

we dont want a westward trend for flakes on the coast, low is in a good spot, need colder 850s though

[lilj4425]

we dont want a westward trend for flakes on the coast, low is in a good spot, need colder 850s though

I don't live on the coast though. Westward trend commence just as long as the 850s stay cold enough. Bring that heavy qpf this way. Hopefully in the end though, we all get nailed with 6+ inches.

[Poimen]

Looks good to my with it being 5 days out. Plenty of time for a westward trend and for temps to trend colder over the next few days.

Actually, it's 6 days out on that map...but yes the genesis of the storm is inside of 5 days, and I suppose that counts for something. Gonna be one of those weeks, hopefully it turns out well for most everyone in the SE!

[buckeyefan1]

My point forecast says it starts with freezing rain, and warms up into rain. The whole forecast up through the weekend cold rain seems reasonable to me due to it's Dec. and climo says mostly no in Ga. But we've already seen flakes as far south as me, and it is colder tonight probably than it was all last year for me...so stay tuned..all we want it to be on the bleeding edge with at least a chance to fall over onto the good side. Some of my best storms started off as cold rain, and it all went crazy from there It's Ga..... can't be holding your breath. T

Since yesterday, it's just been good old plain rain for me About .20 for Thursday and close to .50 for the weekend

[DopplerWx]

we dont want a westward trend for flakes on the coast, low is in a good spot, need colder 850s though

Ill be heading home(hartsville, sc) this weds so I wont be in chas during (hopefully) this storm. ill be pulling for some snow on the coast though.

[Gastonwxman]

18z ens mean, should be some interesting members once they come out on Allan's site. Clips the MA after this, but wide right for NE and OTS

Looking good. Now to just slightly adjust this in our favor in the later runs, and we'll be golden.

Looks like members n001 and n005 are good. Not sure about p005.

[RevDodd]

I don't live on the coast though. Westward trend commence just as long as the 850s stay cold enough. Bring that heavy qpf this way. Hopefully in the end though, we all get nailed with 6+ inches.

Using the same run but 12 hours earlier, the low position isn't the enemy. Lack of cold air in place is. Looks like the moisture comes to the upstate, but the line hasn't arrived yet. Pushing the low further west just creates the likelihood of warmth pushing ahead for folks who'd otherwise enjoy what could be an amazing bounty of snow.

If we could indeed push the cold in a half-day earlier, there'd be a mess of snow from Dalton up toward Danville.

[DopplerWx]

Using the same run but 12 hours earlier, the low position isn't the enemy. Lack of cold air in place is. Looks like the moisture comes to the upstate, but the line hasn't arrived yet. Pushing the low further west just creates the likelihood of warmth pushing ahead for folks who'd otherwise enjoy what could be an amazing bounty of snow.

If we could indeed push the cold in a half-day earlier, there'd be a mess of snow from Dalton up toward Danville.

Interesting...so in essence we should hope for the low to stay the way it is and just hope for colder temps? What's the liklihood of us getting those cold temps we will need? Ugh id hate to be sitting in rain at 35 degrees

[DLI4SCwx]

When time does the GGEM come out next? I think the one ealier today, had the weekend storm and it was a decent hit for us in the SE.

[RevDodd]

Interesting...so in essence we should hope for the low to stay the way it is and just hope for colder temps? What's the liklihood of us getting those cold temps we will need? Ugh id hate to be sitting in rain at 35 degrees

My understanding (and Lord knows, one of the mets PLEASE jump in if I'm in error!) is the strength of the low climbing the coast is a double-edged sword. Unless colder temps are in place, the warmer moisture it throws ahead essentially pushed the snow line further inland. So the key is getting the low lined up according to its strength. W weak low 200 150 miles offshore doesn't really help anyone, but a potent low moving along the shore could push the snow far inland. That's part of determining where the sweet spot for a coastal storm would fall.

With cold air in place, the sweet spot wouldn't change much, but a lot of folks who'd otherwise be disappointed can share in the snow.

[DLI4SCwx]

Since yesterday, it's just been good old plain rain for me About .20 for Thursday and close to .50 for the weekend

Also Breezy as heck too!!! Wind still swirling outside at my place.

[HKY_WX]

http://raleighwx.ame...zthickf060.html

GFS ensemble members all look more like the nam to me than the op gfs(midweek storm).

[Gastonwxman]

http://raleighwx.ame...zthickf060.html

GFS ensemble members all look more like the nam to me than the op gfs(midweek storm).

That sounds about right. I was thinking of that when I saw the NAM earlier. Light QPF and the 850 line heading northward throughout the day.

[eyewall]

18z and the energy needed for our coastal:

Note on the image above the shortwave in Idaho with its associated vort max. Also note the energy in the southern stream in West TX at this point. These are the pieces needed to come together to spawn the coastal storm.

Northern stream catching up with the southern stream piece

Phasing occurs here near the MO/AR line.

First two pieces phased and our cyclone is impacting NC. Trough begins its negative tilt. Note another shot of energy coming out of the upper midwest.

This energy joins the party to some degree and we have a bomb impacting the northern MA and NE.

The previous run has the phase occurring very late almost at the coast which is why the dog is weak and out to sea (along with weak ampification). This is the key to watch in future runs for consistency especially once the wave is sampled in the RAOBS network.

[Cold Rain]

Interesting...so in essence we should hope for the low to stay the way it is and just hope for colder temps? What's the liklihood of us getting those cold temps we will need? Ugh id hate to be sitting in rain at 35 degrees

1) Yes, but I'm afraid hoping is going to yield disappointment unless a High appears in future runs.

2) Very unlikely.

3) If a westward trend commences, you won't have to worry about rain at 35 degrees. Temps will be balmy in the 40s.

[superjames1992]

http://raleighwx.ame...zthickf060.html

GFS ensemble members all look more like the nam to me than the op gfs(midweek storm).

Well, that's good news!

[burgertime]

18z and the energy needed for our coastal:

Note on the image above the shortwave in Idaho with its associated vort max. Also note the energy in the southern stream in West TX at this point. These are the pieces needed to come together to spawn the coastal storm.

Pics are broken links.

[DopplerWx]

NAM @ 60, perhaps a little colder?

[eyewall]

Pics are broken links.

THat is strange they work on my end. Is everyone having the same issue?

[DopplerWx]

THat is strange they work on my end. Is everyone having the same issue?

Yea I cant see them either.

[NEGa]

THat is strange they work on my end. Is everyone having the same issue?

They are showing up fine on this end. Great maps, btw thanks for posting. The explanation goes well with the images. Its very clear

Ps. The imaged worked in the original post, and i can also see it in burgers reply

[eyewall]

Ok let me try this again with attachments for those who can't see 'em in the original post. Basically what I am saying is the 18z run has a shortwave coming out of ID to phase with energy over the AR/MO line. This yields our storm and the pattern amplifies eventually tilting negative as another piece of energy dives south out of the upper midwest. The storm bombs out as it then impacts the northern MA and Northeast. The 12z run has this phase occurring late near the coast and thus little amplification and a weaker low out to sea. So we need to see how this evolves especially once the NW wave enters the RAOBS network and when we know what kind of cold air we have to work with.

[tnweathernut]

sure does seem like this run is a little colder and further south and east with the main precip band. The cooler might be because of this.

[DopplerWx]

Ok let me try this again with attachments for those who can't see 'em in the original post. Basically what I am saying is the 18z run has a shortwave coming out of ID to phase with energy over the AR/MO line. This yields our storm and the pattern amplifies eventually tilting negative as another piece of energy dives south out of the upper midwest. The storm bombs out as it then impacts the northern MA and Northeast. The 12z run has this phase occurring late near the coast and thus little amplification and a weaker low out to sea. So we need to see how this evolves especially once the NW wave enters the RAOBS network and when we know what kind of cold air we have to work with.

Now I can see them. Nice write-up as well.

[DopplerWx]

sure does seem like this run is a little colder and further south and east with the main precip band. The cooler might be because of this.

i agree. it sure looks a heck of a lot better than last nights runs.(cue my inner weenie) this could be the start of a trend!