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Autumn in NNE


tamarack

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Max 77.4, Min 52.5

Another beautiful, sunny, dry, top 10 day. The foliage has picked up quite a bit in the last 48hrs here as well.

I finally have the IR cloud sensor working. You can see the coolwx obs link in my sig. The 15-19z obs still estimate sky cover from the solar rad sensor, but everything after that is from the (IR sky temp - 2m temp) deltaT. So far so good...it's reporting clear. :weight_lift:

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Cooler than I expected this morning--down to 40F at the present & might even drop a bit more before sunrise. Speaking of cool...

I finally have the IR cloud sensor working. You can see the coolwx obs link in my sig. The 15-19z obs still estimate sky cover from the solar rad sensor, but everything after that is from the (IR sky temp - 2m temp) deltaT. So far so good...it's reporting clear. :weight_lift:

...very cool, man & nicely done. Gonna make one of those for all of us? ;)

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Wow, nice man. That's what ya call flat water, right there. Doesn't get any more still than that.

Kayak or canoe?

Yeah, those conditions persisted from before sunrise when I put in until I was done at 10:30. The only ripples were from anglers on other parts of the lake. Sure beats the week before when I was out in fog, wind and eventually rain. I use a kayak - get down close to the water.

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Nice shots, Jayhawk!

Low of 39F last night and heavy dew. It was a lot colder out than I expected when I left for work around 7:30. At that time it was 40F down in the village, and by the time I got up to the ski resort base at 1,500ft it was 47F. By the time I hit the top in the four wheeler around 8am, it was 50F at 3,600ft. Nice little inversion with the summit being 10F warmer than town. High down in town today was 68F.

Unfortunately this nice weather looks to be coming to an end... BTV has 60%< chances for rain every period starting Wednesday night and lasting through Saturday.

Wednesday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Rain. High near 62. East wind between 8 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 56. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday: Occasional showers, mainly after 8am. High near 67. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Here's a photo of the foliage in town...this rain coming up will likely take down a fair number of leaves.

Heavy dew this morning...it almost looks like a hard freeze/frost. 40F, clear, and dead calm.

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Just noticed MWN had a temp/dew of 50F/-38F for an RH of 1.7% at one point this morning. There's some very dry air in the mid-levels allowing for 125SM visibilities up there today.

The foliage is finally looking great here. Every day we seem to be 15-20% closer to peak and the vibrance is picking up as well. Hopefully we're at peak still a few days from now once the rains are gone.

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Just noticed MWN had a temp/dew of 50F/-38F for an RH of 1.7% at one point this morning. There's some very dry air in the mid-levels allowing for 125SM visibilities up there today.

The foliage is finally looking great here. Every day we seem to be 15-20% closer to peak and the vibrance is picking up as well. Hopefully we're at peak still a few days from now once the rains are gone.

Yeah the views from the top of Mansfield were spectacular today... especially this morning in the crisp, clear air. Mount Washington looked like it was right in front of us and the Presidentials were crystal clear.

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Scott et al.

Take a look at around 0z 10/16/11 thru maybe 14/16 z on 10/16/11. Thinking as that upper level trough moves in and drops 850s and midlevel temps/heights we'll see some snow across the higher terrain.

I can't see it well on my phone but I'll take your word for it. It would be nice to get a dusting at least up high.

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How low can a dewpoint theoretically go?

I believe the answer is 0K on the Kelvin scale,−273.15 °C on the Celsius scale, −459.67 °F on the Fahrenheit scale and 0 °R on the Rankine scale but I could be wrong. (assume absolute zero with no humidity). With the dewpoint unable to be higher than the air temp and the lowest recorded temp of -129F at Vostok we know the dew had to be at least that low. Vegas also had a day earlier this summer when it was 107f with a dew of -22 f.

http://www.accuweath...-a-dry-heat.asp

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Missed posting during the long weekend heat. I had 77, 80, 75 Sat-Mon, and that Sunday temp is the 1st time I've recorded an October day above 78 since moving to Maine in 1973. Fortunately things stayed dry, though the woodpile exacted a sweaty toll anyway.

Finally some reds showing up in the vicinity, though near the house it looks quite November-y. Not sure if my field trip to Aroostook will happen this Friday, as check-cruising the inventory crews (which includes note taking) will be difficult in a downpour.

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Today was peak day for 2011 in the Northern Lakes Region of NH. If we had had good weather for 3 or 4 more days the true peak would have been around Friday/Saturday but we are at about 75% color. Tomorrow and Fridays rain will bring down far more leaves than the remaining green turning color. Ended up being a pretty good year as color came on very fast the past 3 days. Wished the high pressure and light winds could have held on a bit longer. Okay ready for snow season now that hurricane, severe thunderstorm and foliage has now past!

Peak seems to be around October 13/14th in this area. One of the best years was 2003. Here is a picture I took on October 13th 2003 on Newfound Lake

post-268-0-59971000-1318462423.jpg

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Nice pic, wxeye!

I'm getting back into the swing of taking photos so here are a few more from the Stowe area....

I love morning inversions like we've been having lately with the high pressure. Someone was doing some burning down in town that got trapped under the inversion.

You can see the peak color down in the valley/village areas, with past peak now in the mid-elevations, while the high elevations (above 2,500ft or so) are just plain barren. It is stick season up on the upper mountain.

Mount Washington is the high point in the middle...

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Scott et al.

Take a look at around 0z 10/16/11 thru maybe 14/16 z on 10/16/11. Thinking as that upper level trough moves in and drops 850s and midlevel temps/heights we'll see some snow across the higher terrain.

I can't see it well on my phone but I'll take your word for it. It would be nice to get a dusting at least up high.

I haven’t looked at any of the maps, but Roger Hill hinted this morning that the next shot at snow could be the middle of next week.

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Dreary day... overcast and feels moist but it has been rather dry. Pavement and dirt roads have dried up from last night's rain. I was thinking today would be a washout but I guess not. Just cloudy and cool.

Leaves are dropping fast with whole trees seemingly going bare during the course of a day. Its amazing how fast the peak came this year and how fast it appears to be going past. Its also pretty funny how all of us on here seemed to peak at about the same time; noting very obvious color changes within days last week/weekend.

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I haven’t looked at any of the maps, but Roger Hill hinted this morning that the next shot at snow could be the middle of next week.

From BTV... it does look like we would see mountain snow showers, valley rain showers if this pans out like models show. Northern NY/Adirondacks have the best chance based on the track of that low around Tuesday/Wednesday, but we eventually cool enough over here by Thursday morning. That 7-10 day period (next Thursday-Saturday) looks quite chilly with scattered flurries and snow showers in a general cold, WNW flow regime.

BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOWN IN BOTH GFS/ECMWF WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -4C RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THICKNESSES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

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Headed north in about 15 minutes. Models & AFDs all show NE Aroostook getting a break in the steady rain tomorrow sunrise thru early aft, and that would fit well for our fieldwork, which will be on the large State-owned tract 10 miles W of PQI. I'm hoping the understory hardwoods haven't lost all their leaves, as their yellows tend to brighten things a bit under a full canopy, even (or especially) on a cloudy day.

Steady RA appears to have paused here in AUG, after about 3 hr and perhaps 0.20". Some really nice reds and red-orange along Route 27 south of its jct with Route 135; might be the last time I see them in full, as I'll be going past well after dark tomorrow and Saturday's wind may change things a lot.

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