HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 You're right, that's a bad analog. What about this one?: Nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I see some of the mainstream douchbags have infiltrated this thread. they have now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 No, I do not, I was taken back that a professional met said it was easy once you had gotten the hang of it. yeah I don't get it.. you almost never see cockyness in a tropical met it's hard and everyone has a swing and a miss once in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 This must be exciting to you guys: Look how close the 850 line is to the Northeast. SnowNH, check it out, man, that's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Is shear responsible for this being sorta raggedly looking and weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 By the way, late October hurricane with snow in the New England mountains. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 By the way, late October hurricane with snow in the New England mountains. Book it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Hurricane_of_1804 la la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Wow Mattmo... Ohh, hey NE, how's it going. Pretty comfy temps tonight eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Is shear responsible for this being sorta raggedly looking and weaker? do you need me to take screen shots of the WV loop and draw arrows around the dry air??? It's dry air, damn you, SAL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 do you need me to take screen shots of the WV loop and draw arrows around the dry air??? It's dry air, damn you, SAL!!!! NHC thinks shear...i know squat about TCs Nice h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I just love watching y'all trying to wrap your cold, Yankee fingers around this one. Like a skeleton's death grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Am19psu guy in the other thread said he was sure of what would happen 10 daysvfrom now and said its easy. I questioned it, he threatened to ban me...so yes, people do in fact do that That's a misrepresentation of the discussion. am19psu is a first-rate mod and he did not threaten to ban you for disagreeing. Anyone can go read for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I just love watching y'all trying to wrap your cold, Yankee fingers around this one. Like a skeleton's death grip. Was Irene good for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That's a misrepresentation of the discussion. am19psu is a first-rate mod and he did not threaten to ban you for disagreeing. Anyone can go read for themselves. Uhhhh I said sarcastically "yeah making a forecast with certainty is something id do ten days out" and he said "are you asking to get banned?" To me it sounds like my opinion that a 10 day forecast with certainty was wrong was bannable, but whatever I don't really care honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Uhhhh I said sarcastically "yeah making a forecast with certainty is something id do ten days out" and he said "are you asking to get banned?" To me it sounds like my opinion that a 10 day forecast with certainty was wrong was bannable, but whatever I don't really care honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm not here to start fights, let it go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Was Irene good for you? Yeah, it was OK-- not what I fantasized about on the way there, but a good little* 'cane, with a solid eye and eyewall. *Little as in strength, not size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yeah, it was OK-- not what I fantasized about on the way there, but a good little* 'cane, with a solid eye and eyewall. *Little as in strength, not size. I need to catch up on the chase thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I just love watching y'all trying to wrap your cold, Yankee fingers around this one. Like a skeleton's death grip. Its a long shot dude. But it could be a Cape Cod special if it comes close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Donnie baseball to stiffen the weenie... At this time, I believe that Katia has weakened a little more from earlier this afternoon. I would not be surprised if the NHC has lowered its estimated maximum winds to 65 mph. An area of strengthening shear currently at 15-20 knots covers Katia's northern circulation. However, to its west, the shear has been relaxing. As Katia tracks generally west-northwestward overnight into tomorrow, it will gradually move into an environment that could become more favorable for restrengthening. Before then, some additional weakening might be possible overnight. Its lack of growth will likely limit any turn to the north in the near-term. That could translate into Katia's coming farther to the west. At this time, I still believe Katia has about a 60% chance of recurvature. However, the combination of its weaker strength and prospect that ridging will close the weakness for a time increases prospects of its tracking more to the West. Previously, I had thought that 65W-70W would be about as far as Katia gets before it recurves. Odds of its reaching at least 70W-75W have increased. In a worst-case scenario, Katia could continue to track mainly west to west-northwestward until it gets so far to the west that its turn to the north comes too late to avoid landfall. Floyd (1999) is an example of such a storm. Right now, I do not expect a Floyd-like outcome. But I can see Katia passing near 20.0N 57.6W, 25.0N 67.6W, and 30.0N 71.7W at this time. The first two positions would be about 50 and 210 miles west of the 9/1 5 pm NHC track. A delayed turn northward from a weaker Katia has raised prospects of such a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That ULL and ridging I mentioned yesterday causes Katia to be a tease on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 That ULL and ridging I mentioned yesterday causes Katia to me a tease on the GFS. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Some pretty impressive changes between 00z Euro last night and the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 What does this mean? Typo. It's still probably gonna be a blue ball type storm, but the uncertainty of the track is interesting. Also, NAM gives New Orleans 14" of rain and 50kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 That ULL and ridging I mentioned yesterday causes Katia to be a tease on the GFS. It managed to merge with that trough and try to get flung up the coast but the NW Atlantic ridging is still getting beat down and slips out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Ya gotta love the 06z GFS and the tease it is for the whole eastern seaboard. Nice hard right turn there. If that Katia can head W another 150-200m W before taking that hard right, eastern areas could be threatened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 All I can say is, stranger things have happened .. this storm crawls on the models Maybe this is one time we see a miracle track and upper air pattern..but I just can't see how this will hit the NE. Maybe m bias from previous storms like bill and Earl, Bearl I think it' good they ALL models are trending tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It managed to merge with that trough and try to get flung up the coast but the NW Atlantic ridging is still getting beat down and slips out to sea. Osu have you seen any discrepancies with models and the Atlantic Ridging? Stronger or weaker than moddelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It managed to merge with that trough and try to get flung up the coast but the NW Atlantic ridging is still getting beat down and slips out to sea. I think it manages to just be a tease, but it is interesting. If anything...maybe NC has the "biggest" threat? I put that in quotation marks because it obviously isn't much of a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Osu have you seen any discrepancies with models and the Atlantic Ridging? Stronger or weaker than moddelled? it keeps changing...but in general the zonal flow up in the Labrador area is hurting the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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