Amped Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Still looks like what goes around will come around with the MJO wave3. The weekend early next week storm looks like crap but the threat in the carribien may become real in 9-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Going against climo, and even after Ed think his team won't make it to playoffs, there's some real possibility for a NW Carib-W GOM action in the long range... teleconnections favor a continued W coast trough which would pump the SE ridge in the 8-16 day period... in this timeframe the W carib might pop a tropical low. And it looks like the MJO is going nuts in some favorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Going against climo, and even after Ed think his team won't make it to playoffs, there's some real possibility for a NW Carib-W GOM action in the long range... teleconnections favor a continued W coast trough which would pump the SE ridge in the 8-16 day period... in this timeframe the W carib might pop a tropical low. And it looks like the MJO is going nuts in some favorable phases. October 4th was the latest my team ever played in the league championship series, and except for the drought, I'd rather see a major hit Florida than a Jerry halfacane hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Going against climo, and even after Ed think his team won't make it to playoffs, there's some real possibility for a NW Carib-W GOM action in the long range... teleconnections favor a continued W coast trough which would pump the SE ridge in the 8-16 day period... in this timeframe the W carib might pop a tropical low. And it looks like the MJO is going nuts in some favorable phases. Admit it. You have been peaking at the 384 hr teasers and waited until it became under 300 hr teasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Astounding agreement about the big MJO wave in our side of the world Euro Ensembles Ukie and ensembles GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Admit it. You have been peaking at the 384 hr teasers and waited until it became under 300 hr teasers. Damn, you got me! But seriously, even if probability is low, and is against climo, the synoptic setup in the long range looks good for 1) an active Caribbean and 2) higher than normal heights in the S/SE CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Last 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent 18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11 00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11 06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11 18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10 00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall) 06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10 Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun times for some of us for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Someone accidentally deleted my post about even if the Super Bowl III Jets freak TC in mid-October in the NW Gulf happened, OHC is low and dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Yep this MJO wave means business... its nice to see a coherent signal again! As I mentioned a week or so ago, all aboard mid-October for tropical action, although how strong or well developed is obviously the biggest mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Last 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent 18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11 00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11 06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11 18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10 00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall) 06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10 Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun times for some of us for a change! The 12Z Euro is staying consistent with its prior runs. So, we have the GFS (E of FL last 8 runs ) vs. Euro (W of FL last 5 runs) in a classic battle of the titan models. I can't recall a previous situation all that similar to this. At another BB, it is U_Thant (who posts there under another name) vs. the tropical met. from Houston, "57". U_Thant thinks it will ride up W of FL or near the W coast while "57" thinks it will do this just E of FL. So, to those in the know about the models' biases/strengths/weaknesses and are following this closely, which of the GFS and Euro is likely to verify more closely? Do you expect the surface low to ride up E of FL, W of FL, or neither? Subtropical, subtropical going to tropical, pure tropical, or no closed surface low? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The 12Z Euro is staying consistent with its prior runs. So, we have the GFS (E of FL last 8 runs ) vs. Euro (W of FL last 5 runs) in a classic battle of the titan models. I can't recall a previous situation all that similar to this. At another BB, it is U_Thant (who posts there under another name) vs. the tropical met. from Houston, "57". U_Thant thinks it will ride up W of FL or near the W coast while "57" thinks it will do this just E of FL. So, to those in the know about the models' biases/strengths/weaknesses and are following this closely, which of the GFS and Euro is likely to verify more closely? Do you expect the surface low to ride up E of FL, W of FL, or neither? Subtropical, subtropical going to tropical, pure tropical, or no closed surface low? TIA I don't know the answer but do think that the 12Z euro surface low has a strong tilt between the surface and 500mb. The sfc low is actually west of the 500 circulation which usually doesn't happen since the best upper level divergence is typically on the eastern side of an upper system. Still even the euro moves the low across northern FL and then up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The 12Z Euro is staying consistent with its prior runs. So, we have the GFS (E of FL last 8 runs ) vs. Euro (W of FL last 5 runs) in a classic battle of the titan models. I can't recall a previous situation all that similar to this. At another BB, it is U_Thant (who posts there under another name) vs. the tropical met. from Houston, "57". U_Thant thinks it will ride up W of FL or near the W coast while "57" thinks it will do this just E of FL. So, to those in the know about the models' biases/strengths/weaknesses and are following this closely, which of the GFS and Euro is likely to verify more closely? Do you expect the surface low to ride up E of FL, W of FL, or neither? Subtropical, subtropical going to tropical, pure tropical, or no closed surface low? TIA Can you PM with this other BB where these discussions are taking place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Big ole' lemon located near Florida now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Can you PM with this other BB where these discussions are taking place? U-Thant and 57 post at S2K, U_Thant is a dual tagger who used to have a sinking ship avatar, and his intials AJC (IIRC) were in his board name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Besides the current system that may develop near Fl..the ECM suggests another one around 216-240 hrs out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Last 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent 18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11 00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11 06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11 18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10 00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall) 06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11 12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10 Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun times for some of us for a change! Since I made the above post, the GFS had only one more run showing a SE coast TS hit. Ever since, it has been showing no more than a ST/more spread out storm. So, the GFS may be headed to a big fail on the TS idea. Is this even going to get strong enough to get a name? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Someone accidentally deleted my post about even if the Super Bowl III Jets freak TC in mid-October in the NW Gulf happened, OHC is low and dropping. Ocean temp doesn't mean everything. This from Wikipedia: Normally, an ocean temperature of 26.5°C (79.7°F) spanning through at least a 50-metre depth is one of the six requirements needed to maintain the special mesocyclone that is the tropical cyclone.[32] These warm waters are needed to maintain the warm core that fuels tropical systems. This value is well above 16.1 °C (60.9 °F), the long term global average surface temperature of the oceans.[33] However, this requirement can be considered only a general baseline because it assumes that the ambient atmospheric environment surrounding an area of disturbed weather presents average conditions. Tropical cyclones have intensified when SSTs were slightly below this standard temperature. NW Florida (Panama City Beach area) forecast from WTVY-4 in Dothan, Al shows a water temp of 78F, This is not going to kill a tropical cyclone too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Ocean temp doesn't mean everything. This from Wikipedia: Hey, thanks, I never heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Ocean temp doesn't mean everything. This from Wikipedia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 In happier news, the 12Z GFS starts something before the resolution chop that than goes on to affect Cuba beyond (Is there a Cuban consulate in Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo?), and has general support from the 0Z Euro. Today's non-tropical heavy rains have really put me in a glass half full mood. Euro would seem to suggest a passport and visa may not be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Our hybrid feature now has an INVEST assigned to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 The buoy off Cape Canaveral has been sustained tropical storm force since around 10 am this morning and just had a gust to 50knts......so even though this isnt a true tropical system ( at least not yet) there is plenty of wind along the coast, pretty nasty radar sig as well still doesnt quite look like a true tropical system quite yet http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Looking pretty intense on radar: Melbourne, FL Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Looking pretty intense on radar: Melbourne, FL Radar Radar shows possible circulation. I am JUST south of there in Port Saint Lucie with a bright moon overhead and never ending lightening just to the north. Surreal to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'm right on Melbourne Beach (vacation with 10 family members, fun!). It had been really windy all day, but then started getting pretty rough around 6 pm, with wind blowing water in through the bottom of the sliding doors and windows. We lost power for about an hour, but it's back (for now?). Can't believe I ended up here in the midst of this without any plans to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Still hints of Flrida excitement mid/late month. With that trough coming down, a sheared system or baroclinic enhancent and maximum fun? GFS also has a system developing near the chop, but that would appear Pacific in origin and crossing back into the SW Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Still hints of Flrida excitement mid/late month. With that trough coming down, a sheared system or baroclinic enhancent and maximum fun? GFS also has a system developing near the chop, but that would appear Pacific in origin and crossing back into the SW Caribbean. Just checked the internet, JB looks at the same models I do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Looks like Josh might not need to leave the country, just change basins... look for airfares PVR-CUN. Euro still on board with a W Carib cyclone moving W or WNW (or head to El Salvador) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Looks like Josh might not need to leave the country, just change basins... look for airfares PVR-CUN. Euro still on board with a W Carib cyclone moving W or WNW Or Guatemala? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 So far west of 80 in the Atlantic Basin this year, it has really been a struggle for storms to make it beyond TS status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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