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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV


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I think this is for real, the MJO signal, not the cyclone...couple that with a strengthening Niña, and you get some interesting late season activity in full throttle...at least two weeks of serious fun, IMO.

Yeah. I agree. The MJO signal continues day after day and that is encouraging. We need a pattern change and just perhaps we will finally get one...

post-32-0-41947300-1317304533.gif

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Can someone interpret the new Euro. Is it showing quick possibly subtropical development heading towards Florida or the Eastern Gulf?

Hard to tell w/ 24 hour time steps.

It's tropical. The genesis is in the SW Caribbean (Carla Cradle). The other noteworthy item is the continued advertising of a robust EPAC land falling Hurricane and another approaching trough.

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It's tropical. The genesis is in the SW Caribbean (Carla Cradle). The other noteworthy item is the continued advertising of a robust EPAC land falling Hurricane and another approaching trough.

It's not completely tropical, the SW Carib energy gets entrained, but it's origin is subtropical.

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It does seem like we have the chance of a few more storms, perhaps something more home brewed in the next couple of weeks. Seems like some of the CHI progs support this too. GFS op starting to hint at some storms in fantasy time which may be a signal.

Home-brewed would be a welcome change after all these craptastic African systems. And climatologically, we're just on time for some brews in the W end of the basin.

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philippe looking better

Got caught by the SE portion of the strong ridge left in the wake of Ophelia. That ridge, plus the strong convection blowup helped turn Phillipe more to the left, and ameliorated the shear. It's a deep ridge, but it's stronger the higher up you go, so if Phillipe can stay deep or deepen even more, that would help it vs shear (sort of an egg-chicken thing), and turn even farther to the left (south of west). I'm about 50/50 now about it getting to hurricane status sometime.

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So, it's October.

Contrary to common perceptions, the sexy part of the hurricane season doesn't end with September. Powerful 'canes often occur in October-- and while the sexiest ones tend to happen deep in the Caribbean, there are exceptions. The USA has had more than a few devastating October hits.

Following are all of the major (Cat-3+) hurricanes that have hit the USA in October, since 1851:

1873 No. 5 (07 Oct) - FL(SW) - Cat 3 (959 mb/100 kt)

1877 No. 4 (03 Oct) - FL(NW) - Cat 3 (955 mb/100 kt)

1886 No. 10 (12 Oct) - LA - Cat 3 (950 mb/105 kt)

1893 No. 10 (Chenier Caminanda) (02 Oct) - LA - Cat 4 (948 mb/115 kt)

1893 No. 9 (13 Oct) - SC - Cat 3 (955 mb/105 kt)

1894 No. 5 (09 Oct) - FL(NW) - Cat 3 (950 mb/105 kt)

1898 No. 7 (02 Oct) - GA - Cat 4 (938 mb/115 kt)

1906 No. 8 (18 Oct) - FL(SW,SE) - Cat 3 (953 mb/105 kt)

1909 No. 11 (11 Oct) - FL(SW,SE) - Cat 3 (957 mb/100 kt)

1921 No. 6 (Tampa Bay) (25 Oct) - FL(SW) - Cat 3 (958 mb/100 kt)

1944 No. 13 (18 Oct) - FL(SW) - Cat 3 (949 mb/105 kt)

1949 No. 11 (04 Oct) - TX(N) - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt)

1950 King (18 Oct) - FL(SE) - Cat 3 (955 mb/110 kt)

1954 Hazel (15 Oct) - NC - Cat 4 (938 mb/115 kt)

1964 Hilda (04 Oct) - LA - Cat 3 (950 mb/-- kt)

1995 Opal (04 Oct) - FL(NW) - Cat 3 (942 mb/100 kt)

2005 Wilma (24 Oct) - FL(SW) - Cat 3 (950 mb/105 kt)

Some interesting points:

* There have been 17 major (Cat-3+) October landfalls in the USA since 1851-- approx. 1 per decade.

* Of the 17, there were 3 low-end Cat 4s (115 kt). The rest were Cat 3s.

* Major October landfalls in the USA haven't been too common in recent decades-- but notice that a whopping 5 such events occurred in just 13 years late in the 19th century (1886-1898)-- including 4 in 6 years (1893-1898) and 2 in 1 year (1893)!

* There were no October hurricane landfalls (of any category) in the USA in the 1930s and the 1970s. (However, there was a November landfall in FL in 1935.)

* Major October landfalls in the USA usually occur in FL, with that state accounting for 59% of all such events. LA and the SE States (GA/SC/NC) each account for another 18%.

* Contrary to common mythology, TX can get a major late in the season-- as evidenced by the recently reanalyzed 1949 'cane.

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The 12z GFS brings Philippe back towards the SE coast after it performs a cyclonic loop in the central Atlantic, It could become Rina if Philippe dissipates. There is a distinct disturbance down in the Bahamas as well with a marked pattern shift over the Eastern conus that would allow for something to threaten the SE Coast. I'm thinking October will be more interesting than September.

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The 12z GFS brings Philippe back towards the SE coast after it performs a cyclonic loop in the central Atlantic, It could become Rina if Philippe dissipates. There is a distinct disturbance down in the Bahamas as well with a marked pattern shift over the Eastern conus that would allow for something to threaten the SE Coast. I'm thinking October will be more interesting than September.

October can't be duller than September, can it?

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