Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,530
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    northernriwx
    Newest Member
    northernriwx
    Joined

Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 957
  • Created
  • Last Reply

"...ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR CONTINUITY ASSESSMENT IS THAT ONLY THE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAD ACCESS TO ADDITIONAL DATA FROM WSR

TARGETING RECON FLIGHTS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC..."

Trust me- it matters ;)

I agree that it matters, but I don't think the current model struggling can be pegged all on it. If it was all up to the data input, we should see a more gradual convergence toward a consensus as more and more of the feature is sampled throughout the last few days, and saved through the initialization scheme. All the model runs have been very erratic however.

Again, I agree that it matters, but I think it's much more situational than you make it out to be sometimes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, at least they are slower and further nw than the op. Looks like it goes over the BM as a weak low, and then develops and moves northeast. The weaker low depiction might be due to the spread? First low is a miss.

Yeah looks that way to me. More members then not probably have good weenie solutions but there's plenty of spread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the recon mission plan btw:


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT SAT 26 MARCH 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
        VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MARCH 2011
        WSPOD NUMBER.....10-115

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
      A. P16/ DROP 8 (40.0N 164.0W)/ 28/0000Z
      B. NOAA9 46WSC TRACK16
      C. 27/2000Z
      D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
      E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 28/0600Z

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  POSSIBLE
      P16/ DROP 8 (40.0N 164.0W)/ 29/0000Z
   3. REMARK:  G-IV WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED IN
      WSPOD 10-114 IS NOW CHANGED TO P23/ DROP 8
      (47.0N 175.0W)/ 27/0000Z WITH 18 DROPS ON TRACK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree that it matters, but I don't think the current model struggling can be pegged all on it. If it was all up to the data input, we should see a more gradual convergence toward a consensus as more and more of the feature is sampled throughout the last few days, and saved through the initialization scheme. All the model runs have been very erratic however.

Again, I agree that it matters, but I think it's much more situational than you make it out to be sometimes.

Consensus of the Met community disagrees.... so take it how you want/will.

Even NCEP says the 12z runs were effected by the fact that unlike the 00z, they did not benefit from the inputs...

"but I think it's much more situational than you make it out to be sometimes." - this statement means nothing. These models do not operate from the starting point of a vacuum. It absolutely matters, and that is the ONLY situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Consensus of the Met community disagrees.... so take it how you want/will.

Even NCEP says the 12z runs were effected by the fact that unlike the 00z, they did not benefit from the inputs...

"but I think it's much more situational than you make it out to be sometimes." - this statement means nothing. These models do not operate from the starting point of a vacuum. It absolutely matters, and that is the ONLY situation.

NCEP also observed that the 00z runs didn't even benefit from the additional data, as seen by the significant spread of the model guidance. And so if model forecasts are so dependent on the data input, why is it we didn't see convergence in the 00z runs, considering the data was even specifically targeted to sample the feature in question?

What I meant by situational is that there'll be cases in the evolution of the atmosphere where there's a number of bifurcation points present with significant divergence of possible reality, and then there'll be situations with few bifurcation points that do not diverge as much, such that predictability is much greater. This is obviously a situation where predictability is minimal, probably associated with numerous bifurcation points in the evolution of the atmosphere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty big difference in the ensembles and op. The ensembles are def further nw with the second low, but they are also kind of robust with the 1st low. We don't want the 1st low to be too powerful, or else it takes the good baroclinicity with it and kicks it out further east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty big difference in the ensembles and op. The ensembles are def further nw with the second low, but they are also kind of robust with the 1st low. We don't want the 1st low to be too powerful, or else it takes the good baroclinicity with it and kicks it out further east.

I feel better that the ensembles aren't centered so far west like they've been the last few days (Ohio, DC, etc.) But, yeah, that first shortwave could muck things up. At this juncture, I'm still more concerned for rain than a miss.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel better that the ensembles aren't centered so far west like they've been the last few days (Ohio, DC, etc.) But, yeah, that first shortwave could muck things up. At this juncture, I'm still more concerned for rain than a miss.

Yeah I share those thoughts as well. FWIW the Canadian ensembles have a ton of spread as well, but looks like the mean goes over the Cape.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WOW

what a beautiful day!!

stellar afternoon with light winds full , strong march sun!! As expected forecasted high of 42 was not even close, got up to 47 now settled back to 45 but felt a lot better than that.......hope everyone actually got outside to enjoy it!

50+ next 3 days.....just heaven.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thx, Scott....@ the risk of many a crude pun being strewn upon me, she's 69.

lol

I have to say....I've met her a year ago...and she is in very good shape for a 69 yo. Hope she and your family celebrates this fine day with her with thanks for good times today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WOW

what a beautiful day!!

stellar afternoon with light winds full , strong march sun!! As expected forecasted high of 42 was not even close, got up to 47 now settled back to 45 but felt a lot better than that.......hope everyone actually got outside to enjoy it!

50+ next 3 days.....just heaven.

Are you just copying and pasting this post over and over? This is like the same thing you've been posting 5x a day the last 30 days

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile....hit 49 degrees here with a dewpoint of -1! That's nuts

I think data scarcity matters less when we have many individual s/w then when we have one stronger one in a data poor area. There were many times this winter when seemingly critical components moved by hundreds of miles but the ultimate solution moved little. I think in the Nina type pattern there are so many ingredients in play it doesn't matter as much as it does usually.

So dry outside if you run really fast your balls will burst into flames.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you just copying and pasting this post over and over? This is like the same thing you've been posting 5x a day the last 30 days

1-2 ft? more building collapses than all the snow this winter put together LOL, are you serious, no I am actually just posting about what a beautiful day it is, and how it was warmer than forecast. But I guess I could sit around and make moronic posts how we are going to get 1-2 ft of snow, and how buildings are going to collapse, I guess each to there own?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1-2 ft? more building collapses than all the snow this winter put together LOL, are you serious, no I am actually just posting about what a beautiful day it is, and how it was warmer than forecast. But I guess I could sit around and make moronic posts how we are going to get 1-2 ft of snow, and how buildings are going to collapse, I guess each to there own?

It's like 40F out, it's cold, why do we keep having to pretend it's spring when temperatures are paralleling mid-February?

And some of us have actually had some in February and March, Joe...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1-2 ft? more building collapses than all the snow this winter put together LOL, are you serious, no I am actually just posting about what a beautiful day it is, and how it was warmer than forecast. But I guess I could sit around and make moronic posts how we are going to get 1-2 ft of snow, and how buildings are going to collapse, I guess each to there own?

I don't think anyone has a problem with your observations. I'm surprised that temps got as high/normal here today too. Cold night incoming though.

So you don't think bridges will be collapsing from the weight of snow this week?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's like 40F out, it's cold, why do we keep having to pretend it's spring when temperatures are paralleling mid-February?

And some of us have actually had some in February and March, Joe...

its 45 here zukie, and actually 45 at bdr too, and it got up into the upper 40s with brilliant sunshine, am i supposed to sit inside and get depressed? Or go out and enjoy the weather............sorry tube socks, but winter ended here on Feb 1st, I have had 5.7 inches of snow in 55 days.........just the way it is, I try not to live in denial, if I lived in the berks at 1.5k plus it would be different, but I dont.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49? Unlikely. FMH hit 45 or 46, CQX 45, TAN 45 and PVC 44.

Meanwhile....hit 49 degrees here with a dewpoint of -1! That's nuts

I think data scarcity matters less when we have many individual s/w then when we have one stronger one in a data poor area. There were many times this winter when seemingly critical components moved by hundreds of miles but the ultimate solution moved little. I think in the Nina type pattern there are so many ingredients in play it doesn't matter as much as it does usually.

So dry outside if you run really fast your balls will burst into flames.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's like 40F out, it's cold, why do we keep having to pretend it's spring when temperatures are paralleling mid-February?

And some of us have actually had some in February and March, Joe...

Maybe I am bitter because I miss CTHEAT trolling how hot it is, its a seemless transition between snow/cold trolling to heat/drought trolling, except this year, and I miss it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

its 45 here zukie, and actually 45 at bdr too, and it got up into the upper 40s with brilliant sunshine, am i supposed to sit inside and get depressed? Or go out and enjoy the weather............sorry tube socks, but winter ended here on Feb 1st, I have had 5.7 inches of snow in 55 days.........just the way it is, I try not to live in denial, if I lived in the berks at 1.5k plus it would be different, but I dont.

I love temps hovering in the low 40s with 30mph NW winds when it's supposed to be 55F...

Too bad your area is a snow hole, I've had over a foot of snow in Feb/March with more coming this Wednesday if 12z Euro and 18z NAM are correct. Sucks when you live in the swamp...

And yes, it's getting time for a drive up north...Snowman.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...