Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,530
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    northernriwx
    Newest Member
    northernriwx
    Joined

Tulip Trouncer Threat - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 957
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Another reality however is that each solution has a different probability of verifying, and of those 95 that blow, about 90 of them are highly unlikely ... IMO at least.

I'm speaking more to the balance btwn the two shortwaves, not whether we are going to get an amplification...IOW, high likely we get a good system, but whether it's snow is the big issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recon has been flying missions there starting yesterday evening.

We always hear of how these recon missions are going to be our savior w respect to garnering viable data over the n Pac, but time and time again any great epiphany experienced by the pantheon of guidance is enjoyed after those "crucial" missions...not during; IOW, they never seem mean a damn thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We always hear of how these recon missions are going to be our savior w respect to garnering viable data over the n Pac, but time and time again any great epiphany experienced by the pantheon of guidance is enjoyed after those "crucial" missions...not during; IOW, they never seem mean a damn thing.

I've always wondered how valuable those missions are.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We always hear of how these recon missions are going to be our savior w respect to garnering viable data over the n Pac, but time and time again any great epiphany experienced by the pantheon of guidance is enjoyed after those "crucial" missions; IOW, they never seem mean a damn thing.

Okay fine, but if they don't mean a thing, then a feature being within a data sparse region shouldn't make any difference either

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a guess, but I think more data ... and data that is specifically placed to sample the feature in question ... is probably better than no data at all

My honest take is that they don't hurt, but they don't provide a dense enough sampling to make a real significant difference, thus you have to wonder whether the trivial benefit is worth the cost of running them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a guess but I think more data ... and data that is specifically placed to sample the feature in question ... is probably better than no data at all

Well if the government wants to start slashing the budget for the NWS..instead of cutting programs and personal....they can start saving thousands of dollars by not having these flights. We have plenty of trans oceanic flight coming from Asia which can be aided by satellite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, read my last post; you have missed my point.

that's fair. Actually not entirely sure why I suddenly jumped up in defense of the recon missions lol

My original point ... lol ... was that we can't blame data sparseness for the current model performance, because the features are getting sampled with the recon missions. It's simply a sensitive situation, and oh yeah, it's still past 120hrs!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that's fair. Actually not entirely sure why I suddenly jumped up in defense of the recon missions lol

My original point ... lol ... was that we can't blame data sparseness for the current model performance, because the features are getting sampled with the recon missions. It's simply a sensitive situation, and oh yeah, it's still past 120hrs!

Wait till Tip sees this. You're dead

And there is some merit to data sparseness..which NCEP has admitted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that's fair. Actually not entirely sure why I suddenly jumped up in defense of the recon missions lol

My original point ... lol ... was that we can't blame data sparseness for the current model performance. It's simply a sensitive situation, and oh yeah, it's still past 120hrs!

I think that data sparseness is most defintely a detriment to model performance in this particular time frame, but I just don't view recon missions as a very cost effective manner of combating the issue.

The only way to entirely alleviate the problem is to extend the continent to the s of Alaska. lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wait till Tip sees this. You're dead

And there is some merit to data sparseness..which NCEP has admitted

I know, he's in bed with blaming data sparse regions for everything. And I used to think it had merit, but now I don't think it's always the ultimate limiting factor in forecasting ability as he makes it out be sometimes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know, he's in bed with blaming data sparse regions for everything. And I used to think it had merit, but now I don't think it's always the ultimate limiting factor in forecasting ability as he makes it out be sometimes.

The unltimate factor is the extent of chaos present in the Earth's atmosphere, which deems it impossible to sample often enough and extensively enough; however the dearth of data available to us over the n pac is most assuredly a problem.....just not the problem.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that data sparseness is most defintely a detriment to model performance in this particular time frame, but I just don't view recon missions as a very cost effective manner of combating the issue.

The only way to can entirely alleviate the dilemma is to extend the continent to the s of Alaska. lol

I think it also depends on the circumstances too. If a Cat 4 is moving just off the nrn Antilles, then I can understand if the atmosphere out ahead of it, is to be sampled better. However, we have a potential nor'easter moving up the coast. It's not necessarily a life threatening situation. Again, I'm just thinking of the costs. If the benefits are really there and worth it..then go for it. I admittedly don't know the stats..just going by memory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it also depends on the circumstances too. If a Cat 4 is moving just off the nrn Antilles, then I can understand if the atmosphere out ahead of it, is to be sampled better. However, we have a potential nor'easter moving up the coast. It's not necessarily a life threatening situation. Again, I'm just thinking of the costs. If the benefits are really there and worth it..then go for it. I admittedly don't know the stats..just going by memory.

Yes, in that case ANY benefit at all is worth it; however in the case of a potential condo crusher, we could do without the small benefit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man this is a really impressive airmass. Skies are completely clear, with a strong late March sun beating down, and we haven't hit freezing yet

Enjoy the cold it's the only cold you've got

Put the frisbees , wristbands ,and TEVA's away

Tuck the ponytail under the beret, put the hackeysack away

Winter for another month

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...