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Threat Thread


ski MRG

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Man you're really down on any snow chances for us.. The early week system is looking good imo

What about the weekend system that you called for? I changed plans because you said heavy heavy snow, you wont be able to cut the tree down!

mega torch is here.

48

almost feels muggy

I hope its at least cold enough to get some early season pond hockey underway later next week.

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regardless of what transpires with respect to 5th/6th system or any follow up deal, this could be a good pattern for folks like Powderfreak and MRG. Nice cyclonic flow over the Northeast with a fair amount of moisture should lead to endless snowflakes for the Berks and Greens.

Could be one of those deals where Pete is posting picks of snow-covered roads every day from his truck while a lot of us are p. sunny and 36F. :lol:

I have to tell you that the prospect of this flow from the NW and all that unsettled weather is making everyone here very happy! Now if only we stay sane during this rain event the next day or so.

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It's just amazing the number of above-average months we've had here...looks like that string should end in December though, unless something really drastic occurs in the second half of the month.

I would never bet against a stable pattern, first two weeks look cold no doubt, after that we could be flooded with pac air if that jet crashes into the west, there has been some modeling hinting at that, like the gfs yesterday.

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I would never bet against a stable pattern, first two weeks look cold no doubt, after that we could be flooded with pac air if that jet crashes into the west, there has been some modeling hinting at that, like the gfs yesterday.

Nothing can be entirely ruled out, that's for sure. This time of year when you have pattern changes left and right with no set pattern in place and wavelengths beginning to transition models have a very, very difficult time trying to gander a handle on things, this is why it's pretty much useless to even try to look at models past 5 days out with great detail...all you really do is burn yourself out.

I think this makes 11 or 12 straight above normal months at BDL? Very impressive torch.

I was just wondering that myself, I think December of last year was the last month to come in below normal at BDL...could you imagine if Dec ended up coming in above...that would be every month for the entire year...wonder when the last time that occurred?

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Nothing can be entirely ruled out, that's for sure. This time of year when you have pattern changes left and right with no set pattern in place and wavelengths beginning to transition models have a very, very difficult time trying to gander a handle on things, this is why it's pretty much useless to even try to look at models past 5 days out with great detail...all you really do is burn yourself out.

But this is what we do. The 12z GFS will be zaprudered down to its bare bones. We're all interested in it, even though it is almost certainly not the final outcome.

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regardless of what transpires with respect to 5th/6th system or any follow up deal, this could be a good pattern for folks like Powderfreak and MRG. Nice cyclonic flow over the Northeast with a fair amount of moisture should lead to endless snowflakes for the Berks and Greens.

Could be one of those deals where Pete is posting picks of snow-covered roads every day from his truck while a lot of us are p. sunny and 36F. :lol:

I am definitely pretty excited about the prospects of a long-duration snow event here... even it it is just -SN/SHSN. It tends to add up over time, even if its just 2-3" of fluff each day. There seems to be a pretty good concensus on the GFS/GGEM/EURO of a mid and upper level low parking itself over the northeast with cyclonic flow ushering moisture into the upslope region (like you said).

Regardless of synoptic snow, I agree with you that the Greens and Berks could have a steady 2-3 day period of snow showers.

I really hope you guys get some snow out of this though down there outside of the upslope regions, because it'll get annoying if Pete, J.Spin, and I are continuously posting snow obs. I remember growing up in Albany and posting on WWBB... I always used to get annoyed when I was partly sunny and 35F while the Lake Effect guys and upslope zones were constantly posting snow obs and pics.

Have a good one guys.

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But this is what we do. The 12z GFS will be zaprudered down to its bare bones. We're all interested in it, even though it is almost certainly not the final outcome.

Well I should have added getting any sort of emotional involvement out of it is pretty useless, that's what is the most draining. Nothing wrong with doing it, but if you're going to get yourself all emotional you're going to be mentally dead by the time the threat comes around (if one happens to do so).

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I was just wondering that myself, I think December of last year was the last month to come in below normal at BDL...could you imagine if Dec ended up coming in above...that would be every month for the entire year...wonder when the last time that occurred?

I'm pretty sure that PWM is at 12 months and counting, to be a certain 13 at midnight (they're about +2 for Nov. 1-29), with Oct. 2009 the last subnormal month.

CAR is on the same warm run, with even more impressive departures (though June was just +0.02; change one reading by 1F and it's at 0.00 departure.)

Months and rank (records back thru 1939)

11/09...Mildest

12/09...#16

1/10.....#2

2/10.....#2

3/10....#2

4/10....Mildest

5/10.....#6

6/10...near normal (the exception)

7/10.....#4

8/10.....#4

9/10.....#6

10 and 11/10 Above normal but not in top 20.

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I'm pretty sure that PWM is at 12 months and counting, to be a certain 13 at midnight (they're about +2 for Nov. 1-29), with Oct. 2009 the last subnormal month.

CAR is on the same warm run, with even more impressive departures (though June was just +0.02; change one reading by 1F and it's at 0.00 departure.)

Months and rank (records back thru 1939)

11/09...Mildest

12/09...#16

1/10.....#2

2/10.....#2

3/10....#2

4/10....Mildest

5/10.....#6

6/10...near normal (the exception)

7/10.....#4

8/10.....#4

9/10.....#6

10 and 11/10 Above normal but not in top 20.

Impressive to say the least.

All done with a -nao for the last year....boggles the mind.

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Actually extreme NNE usually experiences above-average temperatures during -NAO winters...especially when the NAO is moderately to strongly negative!

That list of warmth is pretty darn impressive.

Last year was the exception rather than the rule, at least lets hope so, it was tough seeing c and nne become flooded with relatively warm maritime air while nyc south had incredible snows driven by unbelievable dynamics.

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Looking at the 500mb height anomalies on the 00z GGEM, they would still sugest the follow up system is still the big dog. The signal is strong for that than the Dec 5/6 time frame.

Actually looking at combined Ens members here there is a definite camp that wants to place a nice storm nearby CC

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_small_e.html?datecour=2010-11-30&dateprev=2010-12-06&heure=00&type=PN

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