Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Essentials to the synoptics can boil down to two glaringly unavoidable circumstances for me: 1) Fresh polar-arctic hybrid air mass loading into the lower tropospheric thickness' off the outflow from a robust enough E Ontario anticyclone. 2) Additionally, there is a strong lateral confluence in the orientation of two converging westerly cores: one from central Canada around SPV circulation, is impinging on the wrap around circulation from the transient SW Conus trough. 1+2 = cold result. The thermal gradient will be extreme roughly LI or LI Sound... Suspect a west east moderate band of snow on Tuesday deposes somewhere in the 4-6" range... Then we stay cloudy ...maybe a shot of sun very early Wednesday before rapid deterioration sets in. Route 2 (Mohawk Trail) in Mass to about RUT-MHT-PWM looks to jackpot snow somewhere in there, heaviest south. There will be a very tight gradient of mix where there is snow fighting IP in west east oriented band, and an abrupt introducition of ZR in CT/RI - that is the general overview of how I see P-Type in this. Snow amounts on the latter system is very difficult with that, because just about every guidance has a different idea on QPF totals. I rather like the NAM in this, however, because it is the most consistent, as well, all the player are squarely in the NAM's sounding domain. I suspect a primary gets to the latitude of Dayton Ohio ...somewhere eastern IL or in IN or OH, then confluence and arctic viscosity work together to drill it all east under the latitude of SNE - effectively keeping the west -east orient p-type transition zone locked... Everyone ends as light snow early Thursday. Signal is still there for additional storminess over late next weekend but we let's take this one at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Posted in the previous thread but can someone check to see if the flight recon data is introduced into 0z or if it was used at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I suspect a primary get to the latitude of Dayton Ohio ...somewhere eastern IL or in IN or OH, then confluence and arctic viscosity work together to drill it all east under the latitude of SNE - effectively keeping the west -east orient p-type transition zone locked... Everyone ends as light snow early Thursday. I was wondering what the chances are that the line sets up just a bit further south than that? I was thinking KY and southern OH and then heading east. That big high up north seems to want to "leak" a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 John you always amaze with such eloquence of writing. You could turn a thundershower into the next War and Peace. I imagine this thread will be garnered by many a soundings come the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sure if anyone posted this, but A.) isn't it a tad too soon to post a map? and B.) seems like Bouchard is balls to the wall for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow! Not sure if anyone posted this, but A.) isn't it a tad too soon to post a map? and B.) seems like Bouchard is balls to the wall for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sure if anyone posted this, but A.) isn't it a tad too soon to post a map? and B.) seems like Bouchard is balls to the wall for this storm I'd say "Yes" on both counts and his map is rather small for such a high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sure if anyone posted this, but A.) isn't it a tad too soon to post a map? and B.) seems like Bouchard is balls to the wall for this storm Can you blow that up a bit ,,,can't quite see it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow that's gutsy this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 John you always amaze with such eloquence of writing. You could turn a thundershower into the next War and Peace. I imagine this thread will be garnered by many a soundings come the time. Ha ha. I'm not trying to be dramatic, really - that's the way I see it... I could see 4-6" a lull, then almost a foot, for a dual event total of 16-18" where all snow, and I feel pretty highly confident of my tight gradient idea and where it snows, versus zr, ip and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can you blow that up a bit ,,,can't quite see it.... For some reason WHDH's website is being a pain so unfortunately when blowing it up the quality is really poor. http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ here is the site and the image is below his 7 day forecast image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Pete Bouchahhhd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sure if anyone posted this, but A.) isn't it a tad too soon to post a map? and B.) seems like Bouchard is balls to the wall for this storm LOL...knock those CT totals in half I'd say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TT, glad you started this thread. Epic juju, epic. WHDH map blown up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 For some reason WHDH's website is being a pain so unfortunately when blowing it up the quality is really poor. http://www1.whdh.com/weather/ here is the site and the image is below his 7 day forecast image wow - the guy agrees with me. Not sure I like that or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I rather like the NAM in this, however, because it is the most consistent, as well, all the player are squarely in the NAM's sounding domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hello Shovel the deck and roof yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TT, glad you started this thread. Epic juju, epic. WHDH map blown up... that was last weeks, to avoid any confusion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TT, glad you started this thread. Epic juju, epic. WHDH map blown up... that's not the right one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Pete Bouchahhhd. If that verified, it would be something..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just amazed by the trend this winter of TV Met's posting snow totals days before a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sure if anyone posted this, but A.) isn't it a tad too soon to post a map? and B.) seems like Bouchard is balls to the wall for this storm Holy crap. Gigantic bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have 3"-6" on Tuesday statewide. Not exactly a ballsy call lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ensembles still a little mild fwiw.That's been the theme over the last 24 hours, but I'm not sure they are good resolving the low level ooze of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Pete Bouchahhhd. That, I have to agree with. If your the station that can give out total potential first then you get big ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 that was last weeks, to avoid any confusion.. corrected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ensembles still a little mild fwiw.That's been the theme over the last 24 hours, but I'm not sure they are good resolving the low level ooze of cold. They are colder than 06z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Normally I'd think it's a bit too early for a map but this is just a rare case, we know that we are going to get crushed with something, the only issues is do parts of the region end up seeing more in the way of sleet/freezing rain than snow. Considering the potential impacts this storm will have and what we've dealt with so far this is a "special" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That, I have to agree with. If your the station that can give out total potential first then you get big ratings. Especially if your tossing out those numbers, will definitely make ears perk up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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