snowwoman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Freezing Mist and sleet has turned to snow again light that it is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hitting steady light sn in kittery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ginx, I hope you and Jerry get rocked. I think I'll get at least a little love here, it's snowing hard currently. Been out of touch all day and just finished tuning skis for MRG in the morning. Seems like this thing could have a little pop to it. Do you think there are any that still don't believe? Turn the music up! cranking I mean cranking Aerosmith right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 New RUC not backing down out thru 4 hrs. It should start ripping in CT by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have 5-9 out for here...but I'm afraid of a bust in either direction. Starting to look like if it busts though it will probably be in the fun direction. I think we'll make the 5. If you can send some of that "fun" about 15 miles north, there might be a beer waitng for you at Funkys Wind is picking up. Any comments on WCVBs Futurecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes, I third the freezing mist changing over somewhat again thing. Right on schedule. Everything looks fantastic as the radar is blossoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 First off my pants are not in a bunch but are filled with snow to my knees, second here is the GFS 3 hour, dead nuts. Give it time. I will not lose any sleep over this, wait I will being up for the death band, its all good but I still do not understand your original post. The point was it moved east along the border of NC for a few hours! It's everyone else that took issue with what was a correct statement and drew all sorts of conclusions from it. It's an obs/discussion thread I threw out an ob with a loop. Pretty well supported by the GFS/NAM/RUC/SPC analysis/forecasts it did tick east for a few hours. One of those deals where everyone went off on tangents after that. The truth in all of it is that it's probably somewhere between the 18zGFS and 12z GFS, but def north of the 12z GFS. It's also a tighter spiral than was modeled. How much does it matter? We'll soon find out. FWIW, the 1h RUC won't get the 540 above the DE border...unlike both the 18z american models. That's a fair summary. I'm not trying to ruffle any feathers, I just am holding out that the east movement from radar returns is more pronounced than what most everyone in NE is giving it credit for at this point and that the northern stream is playing a significant blocking roll that was not picked up well for whatever reason in the 18z suite... Also, P.S., I dont know if it's just on weathertap radar or not, but the back end drying rapidly in central PA has me worried as well that dry is really moving in in earnest...question is I guess whether that dry air will force the storm on a more northerly track or will it shunt the moisture more easterly. Only time will tell but as of now I like the easterly trend more than most. I think it's too early to jump to conclusions but we talk about the m/l all th time, the 18z models expanded/shifted it N and that may have been at least a partial over-correction. 0z UA can confirm, sometimes it looks different than it is to the eye, SPC UA and RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If you can send some of that "fun" about 15 miles north, there might be a beer waitng for you at Funkys Wind is picking up. Any comments on WCVBs Futurecast? Yes, I'm very concerned by it and the RUC...and the 18z GFS for that matter. I have 5-9 BTW up by your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basinbaker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 quote name='Ginx' timestamp='1296083424' post='373254' RED FLAG now i know everyone gets upset when this is pointed out . human nature. but another red flag was box shifting totals SE....they saw something that led them to do this. It's now cast. and ML center movement is key. Coastalwx do you verify what messenger said about the ML's ....answer it imagining you won't have to answer 30 other questions if you agree. lol i mean the ML's closing off and the track is the key for us right. looked this has been progged to roll East for a while as it consolidates, closed off then pivot NE. I do not understand why he thinks that is a surprise or not modelled. IDK believe what you want but watch the shindig unfold. Did I say it was a surprise? It's an obs thread, as usual everyone has their panties in a bunch if any comment can be misconstrued as taking away their snow --- the thread was locked/so it's muffed up the reply/quote/blocked it. cpicket- Well it's supposed to be wandering ENE eventually, it's a powerhouse so wobbles are normal. But they can be critical later. I don't know why BOX shifted SE, I'm actually really, really worried about the temp spike right now. That's why I haven't come off the 4-8 here, but thankful as all heck I don't have to put out a forecast like the poor tv guys/noaa. It's a tough tough call. The RUC? It would rain over a lot of eastern MA in the jackpot areas first ='40/70 Benchmark' - The truth may be right over your house. Basinbaker' This keeps up warmth may be an issue. I'm getting concerned. messenger i will keep you posted! Currently 33.6F Wind 10-15 nne big flakes. If my wind goes due east temps start to rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Loop this and tell me what way it is moving http://www.spc.noaa....=19&parm=500mb# Looks to me like that's heading for DXR-BDL-ORH jackpot .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Oh, it's misting here now. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lots of melting going on outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Impressive convection off the nj coast. OKX just put out a SWS ...........snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour with these cells and lightning. Going to be a crazy night, if you love weather this is your storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yes, I'm very concerned by it and the RUC...and the 18z GFS for that matter. I have 5-9 BTW up by your area. Beers for you and Ginx by me 0.5" here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Noyes still uber-cautious on this thing for any points north of hartford - providence line. significant bust potential..he actually answered my question regarding concern for the drying trend in central PA and agrees that it is an area of concern to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks to me like that's heading for DXR-BDL-ORH jackpot .... thats my call, said it at 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Dead Zone Anything going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 thats my call, said it at 3 pm. Not sure why BOX revised the map so far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Oh, it's misting here now. Awesome. Soctt just said the same thing over the phone....passed the cf right near the cneter of town...it was snowing on the N side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 BOX radar seems to be filling in: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=box&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Dead Zone Anything going on? Snowin there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 heavy band going through DC now, looks like it will be over within an hour. Philly looks like it could be in a CCB for awhile, perhaps 3-4 more hours before it shuts off. Major pivot point may be setting up in central jersey to far southern CT. North of there, unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Thunderstorm heading into NYC.....hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 lots of melting going on outside where the hell are you? I have 30.4 degrees with fine flakes Somebody needs to explain icicles to me. It snows I get icicles, it freezes hard then warms up a little no icicles, snows, pete repete/ has to have something to do with new snow layer melting. FYI we got roof warnings on our pagers late this afternoon from Homeland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If the RUC is right, someone is going to get absolutely smoked with 2-3" per hour type stuff. In addition to the ML frontogenesis, its putting SNE in the left exit region of a 120 kt jet at H3 that it curls around the ULL to enhance the lift more. Should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 where the hell are you? I have 30.4 degrees with fine flakes Somebody needs to explain icicles to me. It snows I get icicles, it freezes hard then warms up a little no icicles, snows, pete repete/ has to have something to do with new snow layer melting. FYI we got roof warnings on our pagers late this afternoon from Homeland. storrs, have dripping like crazy coming down off the top of the apartment building. Thought it was from the lights, it's not. Sidewalks are also just wet. Odd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 .5" here from that first band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Any updated thoughts as to the northern extent of the storm? Any chance at all this gets up more into Southern VT than originally thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Moderate snow here in hampton... slowing down. Road getting covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have 5-9 out for here...but I'm afraid of a bust in either direction. Starting to look like if it busts though it will probably be in the fun direction. I think we'll make the 5. Whisper dirty things to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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