HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just watching TWC, they had this event pretty much out of most of SNE around 5AM except southeastern Mass/Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Huge temp drop on my drive from bos to con. 28 by ray. And 10 in con less than an hour later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just throwing it out there, ETauntonMA should start a new thread we're jinxed for 0z runs Violently agree, Keep starting them until he phails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I suspect this was posted in the dark recesses of the other thread. But, I found the ALY AFD a really good read. And, at one point, it does point to my one last glimmer of hope here in GC. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH COULD ACTUALLY BACK THE HEIGHT UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WHILE CONVECTIVE HEIGHTS COULD INDUCE A RIDGE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. IF EITHER OR TWO OF THESE THINGS HAPPEN...THE STORM WOULD HAVE A FREE RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH. THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE "SURPRISE" SNOWSTORM OFF JANUARY 25TH 2000 (11 YEARS AGO TO THE DATE). THE THUS FAR...HOWEVER...THE H20 LP INDICATES NEITHER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IS HAPPENING...BUT THE STORM IS STILL A WAYS OFF. IN THE 2000 STORM SETUP...THE UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKED MORE PRONOUNCED AND WAS ORIENTED MORE NORTH/SOUTH. THE OTHER CONCERN ABOUT THIS STORM IS THAT THE UPPER AIR LOW PORTION OF THE STORM HAS REMAINED BIFURCATED FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 12Z NAM INDICATED THESE FEATURES REMAIN BIFURCATED UNTIL THEY DRIFT TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...THE SURFACE STORM DOES NOT REALLY "TIGHTEN" UP...BUT REMAINS MORE DIFFUSE (NEVERTHELESS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN) QUITE A BIT...DOWN AROUND 980 MBS BUT NOT UNTIL THE UPPER LOW "CAPTURES" THE SURFACE STORM...WELL TO OUR EAST). THIS WHOLE SETUP LOOKS MORE OF WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STORMS LAST YEAR...STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY QPF SOMEWHERE...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SOUTHWARD. WE STILL CANNOT CLOSE THE DOOR ON IT...BUT FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just watching TWC, they had this event pretty much out of most of SNE around 5AM except southeastern Mass/Cape Now that is what I would call Dead Zone Desperation. Or have they improved in the 10 years since I last watched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Now that is what I would call Dead Zone Desperation. Or have they improved in the 10 years since I last watched? They've def improved over the last year or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Man did Noyes just tear the NAM apart in that video lol..Called it crap and messed in the head..and garbage. He said it is totally unusable I was laughing when he said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Man did Noyes just tear the NAM apart in that video lol..Called it crap and messed in the head..and garbage. He said it is totally unusable My favorite line was that "it has not been well outside of 36 hrs"....like it's a mental patient undergoing "episodes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can't get it to delete the other image, same name problem. The weak meso west of florida moves up overnight east of the carolinas, ends up near the X at 12z and then bounces around east of the "parent" low off DE. So this IMO is where the big difference is....it's either a fake micro spinup that will wash out, or it may be that the meso's were on to something....it's a feature that's there now but that doesn't mean it's there later. The globals mostly obliterate the low coming up from the eastern GOM after 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Huge temp drop on my drive from bos to con. 28 by ray. And 10 in con less than an hour later My HI was 26* and it's currently 14.9\11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just watching TWC, they had this event pretty much out of most of SNE around 5AM except southeastern Mass/Cape When you rip and read American guidance garbage that is what happens. it will still be snowing in Boston at noon thursday. See Scooter's Euro weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This system looks like it may be the first shot of a jackpot SE of the I-95 corridor of the last few systems this past month. Every system previously ended up tracking near Nantucket to the Cape. Finally, a solution that may actually cross the Benchmark. New Haven, Suffolk, LI, to E. CT, RI, Eastern Mass- Essex County to Boston to the Canal special this time around. It will be interesting to see how fast the column cools this time tomorrow night. Coastal frontogenesis should get a kick in the ass to the SE around midnight tomorrow. Looking like CCB could set up I-95 Corridor SE CT to Newburyport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hi 12.4F Right now 1F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saber Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 my call my by.....could make more with a garden hose ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My favorite line was that "it has not been well outside of 36 hrs"....like it's a mental patient undergoing "episodes". We really would have 100% better forecasts in the met community if we did away entirely with the GFS and NAM..if we just had foreign guidance there would never ever have been any doubt this storm was gonna be a big hit. GGEM.UKIE/Euro all have shown varying degrees of big hits for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 When you rip and read American guidance garbage that is what happens. it will still be snowing in Boston at noon thursday. See Scooter's Euro weenie maps And mdt to heavy snow in NYC at 6 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Now that is what I would call Dead Zone Desperation. Or have they improved in the 10 years since I last watched? Just passing the time while my daughter was taking a bath. Just before Little Bear I never really watch it other than for radar for the most part. Florida looks great attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The problem is also that the NAM and GFS are the most "accessible", so we see a lot of forecasts relying on their output with zero consideration of the foreign models, or even GEFS. Not saying everyone, and most mets know better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So how many think that the SREF's and the NAM come NW at 0z? Do they tic NW or take a bigger jump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 We really would have 100% better forecasts in the met community if we did away entirely with the GFS and NAM..if we just had foreign guidance there would never ever have been any doubt this storm was gonna be a big hit. GGEM.UKIE/Euro all have shown varying degrees of big hits for a week Kevin, just got in from skiing. What's the low down (NPI). Little kick NW at 18z? looks like a 4-8" here right now but 2nd Maxima? Nice 4-6" snowfall around here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Phils web site has first call for you SE guys, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Kevin, just got in from skiing. What's the low down (NPI). Little kick NW at 18z? looks like a 4-8" here right now but 2nd Maxima? Nice 4-6" snowfall around here this morning. I think you guys are in the 2nd maxima zone. I would have you in the 8-14 inch zone..with the caveat there could be more if the banding sits over you which it typically loves to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Phils web site has first call for you SE guys, nice I think he should do one for all of SNE on here. Would be cool to see it graphically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think you guys are in the 2nd maxima zone. I would have you in the 8-14 inch zone..with the caveat there could be more if the banding sits over you which it typically loves to do You made a map?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You made a map?? Nah no maps..just verbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Per water vapor, looks like the northern stream s/w is a little west of prog, and maybe slightly more amplified. The s/w sweeping through SNE is a little to the southwest of prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hi 12.4F Right now 1F People were worried about a cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well I'm getting some sleep tonight.. Tomorrow night will be tough to get more than 4-5 hrs. Here's to the Euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 People were worried about a cutter! Not into this airmass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The problem is also that the NAM and GFS are the most "accessible", so we see a lot of forecasts relying on their output with zero consideration of the foreign models, or even GEFS. Not saying everyone, and most mets know better that's a great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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