shawnmov Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 One thing to remember.... Some of us would have killed for a 4-8" storm last year. Just sayin'. At a bare minimum... we get to cover up all the brown snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This might end up being one of the more interesting nowcast events of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 meteorologists are really earning their money this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 First call: 4-8'' Final call: 2-4'' Bailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I do not think the NW trend or suprises with this system are over..looks very funky this morning already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any of this going to make it into Bow,NH? Hopefully after 5pm if it does. yesterday I was thinking 6" for CON. today I am thinking 4" at CON. most of it coming over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nowcasting frequently reveals surprises. Hopefully we get a bone tossed our way. I'd reverse it and say "surprises frequently result in now-casting." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This might end up being one of the more interesting nowcast events of the winter. Seriously. All sorts of elements to consider and guidance doing a horrendous job on the details right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This might end up being one of the more interesting nowcast events of the winter. I was just about to say we may be banging the RUC today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seriously. All sorts of elements to consider and guidance doing a horrendous job on the details right now. We were just saying how the 06z models are off big time with the NYC stuff. This guy will have some surprises..people shouldn't write it off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's all about expectations for me. I don't expect 10" as shown but if I do end up getting that, it's all the better. I don't like to play the over-hype game like Kevin does with his 18-24"/12-18". I go low and move up from there. I'd think 6-12 is the best call for you, probably Boston providence too...probably will and keV as well. But let's see what shakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seriously. All sorts of elements to consider and guidance doing a horrendous job on the details right now. They totally whiffed on the stuff in E PA right now...they were way too far E with it. What that means for later? Not sure, but its probably more NW rather than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It has begun The State Of The Union storm has started, tiny flakes for about the last 5 minutes, public expects snow mainly after 3, this should be fun. Radar looks great and obs coming in from nyc metro are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How can anyone vilify the NAM? In my opinion it has been pretty rock solid all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Flurries beginning here in Greenwich CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I was just about to say we may be banging the RUC today. The RUC brings that stuff up later this afternoon and then congeals it with the CCB as it nears us...its a monster hit. But the RUC is usually horrible outside of 6h, however, it has kept showing a good tick NW on the parts inside of 6h now that were outside of 6h a few runs ago. So we'll see if it has any merit. The RUC did a pretty good job in the little fluff bomb we had a few days ago when the last second guidance backed off a bit...RUC said it was wrong and we'd see a big hit (relatively) over eastern areas and that's exactly what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 One thing to remember.... Some of us would have killed for a 4-8" storm last year. Just sayin'. At a bare minimum... we get to cover up all the brown snow! Who's got brown snow????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Changes are happening, lets see if the 12Z NAM adjusts things soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 1003mb low passed just west of Hatteras... wind went from south to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I was just about to say we may be banging the RUC today. Can you please start a new thread? You didn't start this one and now the storm is screwed up. Please start a new thread so we can get back our 12"+. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 1003mb low passed just west of Hatteras... wind went from south to west. Well that's def west of this 06z GFS forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How can anyone vilify the NAM? In my opinion it has been pretty rock solid all winter. It has jumped around and did so again at 06z. It may have been correct with a little convective low, but if that is weaker than depicted or the low forms further west near the coast, then all bets are off. The nrn stream kicker also probably has the biggest say out of anything with this. Those nrn and srn systems gave been battling it out. These srn systems are just notorious for coming nw..srn systems are known for that. Whether it happens remains to be seen, but already there are indications that it could be possible. Like Will said. nowcasting will be big today. 12z NAM should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 1003mb low passed just west of Hatteras... wind went from south to west. As modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 As modeled? nope...west of modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think I still get 6" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 nope...west of modeled. Hopefully that's very good news for us in GC., and hopefully doesn't mean much in the way of taint for the coastal plain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 They totally whiffed on the stuff in E PA right now...they were way too far E with it. What that means for later? Not sure, but its probably more NW rather than the other way around. not if that kicker is strong (Osu) and just pushes stuff out as it comes out. probably more of a concern for me than sne though. Thanks for the answer on why no phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It has jumped around and did so again at 06z. It may have been correct with a little convective low, but if that is weaker than depicted or the low forms further west near the coast, then all bets are off. The nrn stream kicker also probably has the biggest say out of anything with this. Those nrn and srn systems gave been battling it out. These srn systems are just notorious for coming nw..srn systems are known for that. Whether it happens remains to be seen, but already there are indications that is could be possible. Like Will said. nowcasting will be big today. 12z NAM should be interesting. I appreciate those thoughts. Let's await the 12Z suite before picking winners and losers. We are obviously in a state of flux. I just was reacting to the posts from late last night before the Euro came out that the NAM was garbage when in fact it is most quickly diagnosing key shifts...whether or not that means it best predicts the outcome remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can you please start a new thread? You didn't start this one and now the storm is screwed up. Please start a new thread so we can get back our 12"+. TIA done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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