mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 went to bed as disastah GFS was coming in. After reading the overnight thread I think we have bottomed out and it can only get better from here. In truth it is a beautiful scene out there. We got close to 2 inches yesterday and it has coated the trees lightly. The morning cloud cover is creating a bluish color. Totally winter scene. And like almost 0. Where is the warm air from the retreating high? If I get another couple of inches, oh well. And what's up with the radar? enchanced echoes are getting into CT already. Big Winter INcoming ONgoing CoT FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some are acting like we're getting an inch or two. It won't be an HECS...those are rare and all the ingredients have to come together. This never had the vibe. This will be a good snow event for many in sne. esp near and se of a LWM-ORH-HFD line. There still looks like we could see some great banding that will probably dump on somebody, pretty hard. It's difficult to determine but it could be se mass or all the way back to ORH. Nothing wrong with a warning event. I thought 6-12 yesterday for BOS and I'll be happy if we make 6-10. Lets how the trends look today. The NAM and GFS both increased qpf at 06z. The soundings look pretty darn good for snow growth...there's actually a pretty unstable layer in the 500mb region later tonight so I wouldn't be shocked if we saw convective snow in those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm leaving for Long Island momentarily. It doesn't look like anything much accumulates there until days end. I have to get records in two courthouses so gonna go and hope for the best. According to the models I'll drive out of anything going north to here. I'll be out of there by 4 PM I hope. yeah, glad to see that. My 24-36" call is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Didn't see that...who bad mouthed me? No one bad mouthed you - quite the opposite. I think a few ppl were looking for some redemption after being bashed pretty hard (by many - not by you) for calling out a trend - ie the dual lobe precip structure versus the consolidated low with a consolidated precip shield. Anyways, 00z was horrible, cut Qpf by a huge amount across the board, kinda like having the rug swept out from under you. But even in those early 3 hr and 6 hr panels there were already starting to be some slight differences in terms of the extent of the precip n and w. still hopeful for a good 6-10" around boston with potential upside with good banding. In addition Matt Noyes stuck to his guns and left the huge accum forecast despite every model majorly shifting south and east. Meanwhile all the other mets slashed their totals and said snow wouldn't start until after the evening rush. Last night people were already claiming winners simply based on models. I'm with will in thinking the 00z was an over-shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The soundings look pretty darn good for snow growth...there's actually a pretty unstable layer in the 500mb region later tonight so I wouldn't be shocked if we saw convective snow in those bands. Saturated to 300mb. That looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm leaving for Long Island momentarily. It doesn't look like anything much accumulates there until days end. I have to get records in two courthouses so gonna go and hope for the best. According to the models I'll drive out of anything going north to here. I'll be out of there by 4 PM I hope. At this point I'd look at radar no models. Might wanna gander a peek at the moderate snow moving up into NYC LI and CT as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No one bad mouthed you - quite the opposite. I think a few ppl were looking for some redemption after being bashed pretty hard for calling out a trend - ie the dual lobe precip structure versus the consolidated low with a consolidated precip shield. Anyways, 00z was horrible, cut Qpf by a huge amount across the board, kinda like having the rug swept out from under you. But even in those early 3 hr and 6 hr panels there were already starting to be some slight differences in terms of the extent of the precip n and w. still hopeful for a good 6-10" around boston with potential upside with good banding. In addition Matt Noyes stuck to his guns and left the huge accum forecast despite every model majorly shifting south and east. Meanwhile all the other mets slashed their totals and said snow wouldn't start until after the evening rush. Last night people were already claiming winners simply based on models. I'm with will in thinking the 00z was an over-shift. With the potential banding..some will get a nice surprise. I'm gonna have to take a look at things when I get in. I agree in that 00z may have trimmed the fat too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm leaving for Long Island momentarily. It doesn't look like anything much accumulates there until days end. I have to get records in two courthouses so gonna go and hope for the best. According to the models I'll drive out of anything going north to here. I'll be out of there by 4 PM I hope. Good luck. FYI, even an inch of snow can really make a mess of things in the metro NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looks like a 2 part storm one comming in early and then a 2-3 hour pause followed by the main event later..is this going to stay this way or consolidate into one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No one bad mouthed you - quite the opposite. I think a few ppl were looking for some redemption after being bashed pretty hard for calling out a trend - ie the dual lobe precip structure versus the consolidated low with a consolidated precip shield. I will admit I definitely was wrong in how far north it would get like that. Some kudos has to be given to the NAM for being at least partially correct with its convective induced low. However, the track of the ULL is still by far the most important feature for heavy snow for all of us. If it tracks close, then at least eastern half will get >8" and possibly over 12" in spots. If it tracks yet even closer, then western areas should join in. We'll just have to watch it. Its a very tedious feature that is battling the northern stream kicker over MN/WI. 06z managed to get it a bit closer and increase the snow again after 00z backed off the most. And yes, I think 00z backed off too far SE and I think we'll see it nudge NW again. Water vapor looks pretty good out in N KY and S OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 First call: 7-12" Final call: 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 At this point I'd look at radar no models. Might wanna gander a peek at the moderate snow moving up into NYC LI and CT as I type. I don't think any of that is reaching the ground. Nearest snow to us here in NYC metro is across central and southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 10-16 looks like a very responsible call based on everything we have in front of us Go Rev,,,,take me back from this lost hope ledge....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can someone give the breakdown for QPF on the Euro in NH and ME? I specifically need to know just NW or Portland, ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Go Rev,,,,take me back from this lost hope ledge....lol.. Be careful moving to his ledge. It's 50% smaller than he says it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I like my forecast from upton,has me with a total of 6-11 and then states in their discussion that it looks like the heaviest axis of snow will set up over southern conn and those totals cold be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some are acting like we're getting an inch or two. It won't be an HECS...those are rare and all the ingredients have to come together. This never had the vibe. This will be a good snow event for many in sne. esp near and se of a LWM-ORH-HFD line. There still looks like we could see some great banding that will probably dump on somebody, pretty hard. It's difficult to determine but it could be se mass or all the way back to ORH. Nothing wrong with a warning event. I thought 6-12 yesterday for BOS and I'll be happy if we make 6-10. Lets how the trends look today. The NAM and GFS both increased qpf at 06z. No complaints here. It's gon sno! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Who in CT is snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can someone give the breakdown for QPF on the Euro in NH and ME? I specifically need to know just NW or Portland, ME? Minimal....maybe 0.15-0.2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Who in CT is snowing? not here in south central conn, the virga goes all the way back to northern nj south of LI as news ch 4 just stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't think any of that is reaching the ground. Nearest snow to us here in NYC metro is across central and southern NJ. Snow has started in Manhattan, Queens, Nassau...Staten Island accmulating, snowing in Newark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This system finally looks to bring SE areas that have been left out this winter's party into the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 FWIW the current RUC pops the main low right off the tip of delmarva at around 20Z - MD/DE border and the ULL in a similar position. Question is whether it moves more NNE, NE, or ENE, does this storm win out or does the northern stream dampen it too far south for us. Additionally once the main low pops, the RUC develops some nice precip out of the over-running precip that it progs to make it over our area. (i've been told RUC has a NW bias but just printing out generally where it takes things over the next few hours) I think it'll be fine for us out to worcester but gonna be a battle to get the ULL north for areas NW of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow has started in Manhattan, Queens, Nassau...Staten Island accmulating, snowing in Newark Thank you sir! That means it appears to come in early everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Minimal....maybe 0.15-0.2.. So sad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snow has started in Manhattan, Queens, Nassau...Staten Island accmulating, snowing in Newark Yeah that stuff is flying north. As of 7 AM obs there was nothing north of central NJ. I'm expecting at least flurries to begin here in the most SW'rn point in CT shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This system finally looks to bring SE areas that have been left out this winter's party into the house. Yup i have 2.7" on the ground and it is snowing nicely here . It was all because of your good wishes last night Jerry. I owe you a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 OT but the landscape looked awesome this AM from the freezing fog overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can someone give the breakdown for QPF on the Euro in NH and ME? I specifically need to know just NW or Portland, ME? 1" - 3" snow just NW of Portland. That's it. Watch for the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Who in CT is snowing? Not I, but it certainly looks threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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