40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Freaking Hilarious! Not a peep out of Will tonight, hope he's alright. The split system is a real bugger. The NAM is a goofy model, it gets to its solution in crazy abstract ways, but it had the right idea for 2 days and got CRUCIFIED by so many. Is Matt Noyes bashing the Euro now too? To be fair, you have killed the NAM as often as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Total QPF through 48hr is paltry. Worse than the GFS. North and West CT is 0.25-0.5 QPF, points south are 0.5-0.75 , extreme SE CT is 0.75-1.0. BOS is 0.5-0.75. 0.75-1.0 on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Barry Burbank absolutely NAILED this storm. Congrats to him Didnt he say it was going out to sea or did he adjust his forecast since then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, EPIC cancel....this winter is not there, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's been taken down a number of times this winter. I was certainly rooting for it this time, but I don't think it's so mighty anymore. Yes it has, all models have had their very bad times. That's why I didn't get the Euro support crowd when the meso models were more likely to pick up on critical features. Barry Burbank absolutely NAILED this storm. Congrats to him yes and he hoisted the euro by it's sack. He referred to it and it alone in saying he just didn't see it turning the corner like was modeled. 30+ years of these events, he didn't need the forum, all our high tech tools...just a simple 500mb map and all that experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is just too weird.. If all plays out, wasnt it the goofus that was first to id the ots trend a couple of days ago when we all bashed it and said its on crack, and DT called it the worst model ever, etc, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Didnt he say it was going out to sea or did he adjust his forecast since then? Nope. He's been going with a brush the whole time and went with 3-6 in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 AKWE - As Kevin Wasn't Expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Total QPF through 48hr is paltry. Worse than the GFS. North and West CT is 0.25-0.5 QPF, points south are 0.5-0.75 , extreme SE CT is 0.75-1.0. BOS is 0.5-0.75. 0.75-1.0 on the Cape. HA! that's a great storm down here....you guys are spoiled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Euro started with a cutter to ALB a week ago and has been slowly falling apart ever since - in stops and starts. We were commenting on the Upstate thread that today's 7 day prog. has a low to western NY. That will probably end up near the SNE Benchmark by the time we get there. LOL he It gives me about 3.5" of snow....just like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HA! that's a great storm down here....you guys are spoiled! You still lost our bet, last night. lol I'll sleep throught this one, tmw night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 BDR, on 26 January 2011 - 01:03 AM, said:Total QPF through 48hr is paltry. Worse than the GFS. North and West CT is 0.25-0.5 QPF, points south are 0.5-0.75 , extreme SE CT is 0.75-1.0. BOS is 0.5-0.75. 0.75-1.0 on the Cape. HA! that's a great storm down here....you guys are spoiled! Your right, its not like the whole shebang went out to sea with nary a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And this is why I never move off my4-8 until day of event it allows me to adjust up or down if need be ,atleast this is what I will tell the plowers in the morning.The question is will i be close to 4 or 8.I pay close attention to messanger and his mapping abilities, early on he mentioned multiple lows and imediately came to mind a ragged disorganized mess. or what we like to call a raggady annie storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is just too weird.. If all plays out, wasnt it the goofus that was first to id the ots trend a couple of days ago when we all bashed it and said its on crack, and DT called it the worst model ever, etc, etc? It was the NAM that first indicated a day or so ago that we'd see a big moisture split off the Carolinas. As it came into focus the RGEM jumped on board and eventually the GGEM too. By this morning it was only the UK and EURO that were stiill hanging on, but the Euro had backed down from the HECS from last night. The NAM has moved around some, but it's been steadfast in this being a storm for SNE. The Meso's appear to have done pretty well based on all this, the globals lost so far. The NAM had the right idea, but not always the right expression of the idea.....in the end drying, multiple s/w's and therefore an elongated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ECMWF has been dethroned. there is no longer a 1" qpf contour over SNE...cuts across MVy 0.5" qpf contour goes from HPN-HFD-BOS. good prediction on the EC. qpf lines almost what you said they would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If the 00z ec verifies verbatim, it's still a low end warning event for most folks along a bdl-bos corridor which is nothing to shake a stick at. I would have died for a 5-7" storm after jan 3rd last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I said that I reserved the right to ammend my fisrt call of 8-16", after the 00z EURO; Final call: 2-5". Phil, Ek and Messenger were right...I was 110% wrong. Climo FTW.....should have stuck to my initial gut. 3' snowpacks just do not happen, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 KBED: 0.45" KBOS: 0.54" KFMH: 1.00" KORH: 0.41" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I said that I reserved the right to ammend my fisrt call of 8-16", after the 00z EURO; Final call: 2-5". Phil, Ek and Messenger were right...I was 110% wrong. Climo FTW.....should have stuck to my initial gut. 3' snowpacks just do not happen, here. I still think you can get 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I said that I reserved the right to ammend my fisrt call of 8-16", after the 00z EURO; Final call: 2-5". Phil, Ek and Messenger were right...I was 110% wrong. Climo FTW.....should have stuck to my initial gut. 3' snowpacks just do not happen, here. I was even worse... I was bashing on Burbank pretty badly and it turned out the man nailed the storm. 5-8 on the Euro now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this even drop down to 3-6 in the city into MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is The euro cold enough around Otis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Somewhere right now, Matt Noyes is having a very bad night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ECMWF has been dethroned. there is no longer a 1" qpf contour over SNE...cuts across MVy 0.5" qpf contour goes from HPN-HFD-BOS. Did I hallucinate that you first posted the .5 contour as ACY-ISP-PWM? Made my heart stop for a moment. Thanks for the play-by-play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I still think you can get 6-8. Yea.....it sounds ridiculous to say this now, but it could still tick back nw a hair.....we'll see. Maybe 3-8" is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If the 00z ec verifies verbatim, it's still a low end warning event for most folks along a bdl-bos corridor which is nothing to shake a stick at. I would have died for a 5-7" storm after jan 3rd last winter. Id be thrilled with 5-7 low end warning criteria stuff after the roller coaster weve been on tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 KBED: 0.45" KBOS: 0.54" KFMH: 1.00" KORH: 0.41" Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Somewhere right now, Matt Noyes is having a very bad night. He really must be regretting holding the line for a foot. Tomorrow AM his radio forecast will still be calling for a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wonder what Noyes is thinking right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I was even worse... I was bashing on Burbank pretty badly and it turned out the man nailed the storm. 5-8 on the Euro now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this even drop down to 3-6 in the city into MBY You really do need to chill with your pounding of him....even if he didn't nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 KBED: 0.45" KBOS: 0.54" KFMH: 1.00" KORH: 0.41" Thanks! These are so helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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