BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You really do need to chill with your pounding of him....even if he didn't nail it. Regardless, it will stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This could have been worse....this thing could have trended into a 50* rain storm at the last moment; we are still adding on a little, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wonder what Noyes is thinking right now... Feel bad for the guy, could see he was really sticking to his guns but at the same time knew his odds were fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This could have been worse....this thing could have trended into a 50* rain storm at the last moment; we are still adding on a little, here. I think 4-7 should do it at this point in Boston, no? Still solid if you think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 He really must be regretting holding the line for a foot. Tomorrow AM his radio forecast will still be calling for a foot! I was going to try to tune in but it just sounded like a bitchfest and I've learned this year..well bad move as he's finding out tonight. I wonder what Noyes is thinking right now... He's probably trying to get the Delorean fired up so he can go back in time to 8pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 AKWE - As Kevin Wasn't Expecting. that's a keeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Feel bad for the guy, could see he was really sticking to his guns but at the same time knew his odds were fading. I have friends and family that I am going to have to answer to.... I was telling folks at work to ignore the mets on TV....there were like "ok, you are usually more accurate than they are, so".... :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sorry Ray. This is probably a bigger blow to you and Will than anyone. At least off to the NW, we had no reason to expect more than 8" at the very most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think 4-7 should do it at this point in Boston, no? Still solid if you think about it My goal is 6"....you will likely make it...me, eh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If someone sees Will ask him if he thinks the split moisture will make a difference at this latitude? I hope he's alright...odd for him to vanish esp. as we rolled through this minefield of horrors tonight. I'm going to bed with the idea of 4-8/6-12 here but I'm also mindful of the meso models that totally whiff the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sorry Ray. This is probably a bigger blow to you and Will than anyone. At least off to the NW, we had no reason to expect more than 8" at the very most. Hey, like all adversity...it has facilitated growth and I'll be better for it. Scott, we have our diffs, but you are an absolute asset to this forum. Keep up the good work and I hope you and Phil make naked snow angels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Conventional wisdom, which has worked well in past storms this year, is that there will be a secondary max significantly northwest of where the heavier precip is modeled. Any reason to think that won't happen in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If someone sees Will ask him if he thinks the split moisture will make a difference at this latitude? I hope he's alright...odd for him to vanish esp. as we rolled through this minefield of horrors tonight. I'm going to bed with the idea of 4-8/6-12 here but I'm also mindful of the meso models that totally whiff the area. I know Will and he isn't one to dodge anyone.....I'm sure he will congratulate you once he is online. He prob had plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have friends and family that I am going to have to answer to.... I was telling folks at work to ignore the mets on TV....there were like "ok, you are usually more accurate than they are, so".... :arrowhead: AAhhhh! I hate when that happens lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Conventional wisdom, which has worked well in past storms this year, is that there will be a secondary max significantly northwest of where the heavier precip is modeled. Any reason to think that won't happen in this case? Yea, I could see someone like Will and I getting stuck under a band and grabbing 6-8"...like Mike suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Oddly I'm relived by the Euro going SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey, like all adversity...it has facilitated growth and I'll be better for it. Scott, we have our diffs, but you are an absolute asset to this forum. Keep up the good work and I hope you and Phil make naked snow angels. Ray I tihnk you've mostly got me figured out. I ask a lot of questions when I'm unsure of my own position/figure I'm missing something. OSU and Scott have been huge all day providing information. Will did answer on the meso v global deal too so I better understand why that argument was being made. The thing tonight asking about specific instances of feedback, IE, where is it by the book and nobody stepped up to point it out....maybe telling because as OSU pointed out there wasn't textbook feedback. I should know, a bunch of times early in the year I thought that was the problem and was wrong. One of the reasons I was pretty sure on the moisture split soon as I saw the s/w were real coming up the coast last night....I specifically remember 2 or 3 instances over the years when you and I sat there watching the water vapor look like crap as some poorly modeled feature on the ETA/models stole the moisture. The NAM seems to be able to sniff these out pretty well right now, just like it was able to pin the tiny spin that became the last blizzard. It's messed at times, but it had the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 AAhhhh! I hate when that happens lol. It's fine....the best way to explain is is that "hey, I fooked the duck". I can be overbearing and annoying, but one thing I won't do is try to equivocate my way around admitting failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I said that I reserved the right to ammend my fisrt call of 8-16", after the 00z EURO;Final call: 2-5". Phil, Ek and Messenger were right...I was 110% wrong. Climo FTW.....should have stuck to my initial gut. 3' snowpacks just do not happen, here. It happened in 1717, we're overdue for it to happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I know Will and he isn't one to dodge anyone.....I'm sure he will congratulate you once he is online. He prob had plans. NBD, we win some we lose some. The AP was able to catch the action tonight as the Euro was dethroned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Feel bad for the guy, could see he was really sticking to his guns but at the same time knew his odds were fading. He seems very bullish with his calls..is he normally like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ray I tihnk you've mostly got me figured out. I ask a lot of questions when I'm unsure of my own position/figure I'm missing something. OSU and Scott have been huge all day providing information. Will did answer on the meso v global deal too so I better understand why that argument was being made. The thing tonight asking about specific instances of feedback, IE, where is it by the book and nobody stepped up to point it out....maybe telling because as OSU pointed out there wasn't textbook feedback. I should know, a bunch of times early in the year I thought that was the problem and was wrong. One of the reasons I was pretty sure on the moisture split soon as I saw the s/w were real coming up the coast last night....I specifically remember 2 or 3 instances over the years when you and I sat there watching the water vapor look like crap as some poorly modeled feature on the ETA/models stole the moisture. The NAM seems to be able to sniff these out pretty well right now, just like it was able to pin the tiny spin that became the last blizzard. It's messed at times, but it had the right idea. See, everyone is going to be wrong from time to time....it's what makes us human, but being wrong doesn't deem you reprehensible as long as can demonstrate that your position was supported by sound logic and Will did that.....I also did to a lesser extent. I don't have the met knowledge base to do so as extensively as he and some others have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok bed time: 1; Changes aren't done yet 2. There's probably some degree of feedback effecting QPF... 3. we'll need to watch, to see if the low does try to bomb earlier. 4. More than anything else, past performance is not indicative of future results. Situation to situation this year there's no real clear favorite model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Earthlight, 1 inch liquid in Falmouth. How much of this is frozen precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 See, everyone is going to be wrong from time to time....it's what makes us human, but being wrong doesn't deem you reprehensible as long as can demonstrate that your position was supported by sound logic and Will did that.....I also did to a lesser extent. I don't have the met knowledge base to do so as extensively as he and some others have. My thought was an extreme solution which for this winter was inside or well outside. Inside gradually went away, and we're running around the BM track which for this year is extreme/outside. I hope that's it... No being wrong is NBD...the best of the best are probably significantly right less than 60% of the time IMO. Ray I dont think this is done yet, the GFS trot fast is suspicious to me etc....lets see how it looks at dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ray, at least you won the best quote of the storm! Possibly of the month, but not set in stone yet. Definitely top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My thought was an extreme solution which for this winter was inside or well outside. Inside gradually went away, and we're running around the BM track which for this year is extreme/outside. I hope that's it... No being wrong is NBD...the best of the best are probably significantly right less than 60% of the time IMO. Ray I dont think this is done yet, the GFS trot fast is suspicious to me etc....lets see how it looks at dawn. Yep, in addition to supporting your assertions with logic, being able to own up to it is also a necessity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ray, at least you won the best quote of the storm! Possibly of the month, but not set in stone yet. Definitely top 10 Throw in you sig....Jerry's is old and no longer applicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So I'm going to bed thinking 4-8 from Ray southward to PYM and a swath of 8-12 from PYM out through a lot of the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Earthlight, 1 inch liquid in Falmouth. How much of this is frozen precip? I'd say at least half....mid levels are fine, but the surface is warm....though the 2m depiction on the EURO is likely too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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