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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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Initial totals from the NWS:

DCA: 5.0" (total 8.8" for the season) ...1.52" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.2")

IAD: 5.1" (total 8.9" for the season) ...1.31" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.54")

BWI: 7.8" (daily record broken by 0.9". total 12.1" for the season) ...1.82" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.49")

NOTE: IAD snow total has to be underdone... METAR was reporting as much as 9" of snow on the ground, with SNINCR reports of at least 6"

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Initial totals from the NWS:

DCA: 5.0" (total 8.8" for the season) ...1.52" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.2")

IAD: 5.1" (total 8.9" for the season) ...1.31" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.54")

BWI: 7.8" (daily record broken by 0.9". total 12.1" for the season) ...1.82" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.49")

NOTE: IAD now totals has to be underdone... METAR was reporting as much as 9" of snow on the ground, with SNINCR reports of at least 6"

BWI should be over 8" and I think over 9". They reported SNINCR for 2" in the morning and then the same for 6" in the evening. But I think it should have been 7":

METAR KBWI 270154Z 34009KT 3/4SM R10/3500V4500FT -TSSN BR OVC003 01/00 A2961 RMK AO2 TSB51 SLP028 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD MOV NE SNINCR 2/6 P0028 T00060000 $

SPECI KBWI 270218Z 34012G17KT 1SM R10/4500V6000FT -SN BR BKN005 OVC009 01/00 A2962 RMK AO2 TSE18 TS MOV NE P0008 $

METAR KBWI 270254Z 33011G16KT 2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC012 01/00 A2963 RMK AO2 TSE18 SLP035 TS MOV NE SNINCR 1/6 P0013 60068 T00060000 53019 $

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BWI should be over 8" and I think over 9". They reported SNINCR for 2" in the morning and then the same for 6" in the evening. But I think it should have been 7":

METAR KBWI 270154Z 34009KT 3/4SM R10/3500V4500FT -TSSN BR OVC003 01/00 A2961 RMK AO2 TSB51 SLP028 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD MOV NE SNINCR 2/6 P0028 T00060000 $

SPECI KBWI 270218Z 34012G17KT 1SM R10/4500V6000FT -SN BR BKN005 OVC009 01/00 A2962 RMK AO2 TSE18 TS MOV NE P0008 $

METAR KBWI 270254Z 33011G16KT 2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC012 01/00 A2963 RMK AO2 TSE18 SLP035 TS MOV NE SNINCR 1/6 P0013 60068 T00060000 53019 $

They also have a 4/009 for 9" of SNOG this morning... there was no 4/ report yesterday, so all of that has to be new.

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Initial totals from the NWS:

DCA: 5.0" (total 8.8" for the season) ...1.52" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.2")

IAD: 5.1" (total 8.9" for the season) ...1.31" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.54")

BWI: 7.8" (daily record broken by 0.9". total 12.1" for the season) ...1.82" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.49")

NOTE: IAD snow total has to be underdone... METAR was reporting as much as 9" of snow on the ground, with SNINCR reports of at least 6"

I live just a couple of miles from IAD and have way more than 5.1". Maybe they had an idling jet engine blowing on the snow plate ;)

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Snowfall totals map... some shady numbers (low end)... probably just never updated from the first batch:

I think some of those totals are including the morning, some are just the morning, and some are just the evening. There are several totals near me in eastern Howard County that are very comparable for the evening snow only (~7.5").

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Came up with unofficially 2.6" for round one and 8.8" for round 2 on east side of Columbia.

Got me beat, Herb. I went to bed with 7.5" for round 2 and that's what I have this morning. So, maybe had a little more and it compacted, but I'm going to go with 10.5" on the day.

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I just can't see how traffic would have been any less snarled if there were more prompt warnings sent out.

It's DC. Traffic gets backed up for miles if someone in San Diego sneezes too hard.

Eh...warnings that sounded the alarm as to what the problem was likely to be earlier might have helped. The issue was the extremely heavy snowfall in a short period of time. That went up VERY late from LWX comparatively, and not really at all from local tv personnel. The lag time wasn't enough for it to filter into the consciousness of a lot of decision makers re: letting people out early enough to avoid it. I know we were clued in on this board, but, then again, we're all kinda crazy weather zealots. For the 99.9% of the world that isn't, I can see how this snuck up on folks and I do think it led to the issues we saw.

And, for the record, it wasn't just DC, Baltimore's traffic last night was horriffic. Simply atrocious. People were caught unawares, bottom line. Of course they own their own responsibility for that in some part, but for those who HAD to be at work because their bosses wouldn't let them go, hard for me to blame them.

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It's a catch 22 for this area. Give a warning, people panic and traffic gets flubbed. Don't give a warning, and people are surprised (which don't know how they possibly could be), and traffic gets flubbed. Either way you combine people petrified of driving in bad weather, and drive like idiots. And the ones thinking they're invincible in 4wd and drive like idiots. No one wins.

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Initial totals from the NWS:

DCA: 5.0" (total 8.8" for the season) ...1.52" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.2")

IAD: 5.1" (total 8.9" for the season) ...1.31" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.54")

BWI: 7.8" (daily record broken by 0.9". total 12.1" for the season) ...1.82" liquid (daily record beaten by 0.49")

NOTE: IAD snow total has to be underdone... METAR was reporting as much as 9" of snow on the ground, with SNINCR reports of at least 6"

Can anyone link me to a good key for how to read METAR reports?

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If u use liquid equivalents and assume 10 to 1 that would have been 15 inches of snow that fell from about 4 to 10, six hours. Wouldn't that have been the most snow by far DC has ever received in such a short amount of time or is that an impossible way to look at it???

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If u use liquid equivalents and assume 10 to 1 that would have been 15 inches of snow that fell from about 4 to 10, six hours. Wouldn't that have been the most snow by far DC has ever received in such a short amount of time or is that an impossible way to look at it???

This. Snowfall ratios were lower for most in the DC/BWI area. Likely close to 6-7:1.

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It's a catch 22 for this area. Give a warning, people panic and traffic gets flubbed. Don't give a warning, and people are surprised (which don't know how they possibly could be), and traffic gets flubbed. Either way you combine people petrified of driving in bad weather, and drive like idiots. And the ones thinking they're invincible in 4wd and drive like idiots. No one wins.

Smokey.....the bottom line is that LWX and the many of the local METS did a terrible job of preparing the general public for this storm. Hell, LWX didn't even upgrade the DC area until the last few hours before the storm and their SWS for heavy storm wasn't issued until a few hours prior. The people on this board are a fraction of the general public. Most people out there rely on NWS and their local Mets for forecasts, and they were sorely misled this time around. I don't think it is unfair to ask someone at LWX to offer an explanation for their piss poor forecasting job for this storm.

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Smokey.....the bottom line is that LWX and the many of the local METS did a terrible job of preparing the general public for this storm. Hell, LWX didn't even upgrade the DC area until the last few hours before the storm and their SWS for heavy storm wasn't issued until a few hours prior. The people on this board are a fraction of the general public. Most people out there rely on NWS and their local Mets for forecasts, and they were sorely misled this time around. I don't think it is unfair to ask someone at LWX to offer an explanation for their piss poor forecasting job for this storm.

I don't disagree. I just don't think their mistakes have much of an impact on the traffic during any kind of bad weather in the DC metro region.

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I don't disagree. I just don't think their mistakes have much of an impact on the traffic during any kind of bad weather in the DC metro region.

Over a million people traveling at 2:00pm under overcast skies or over a million people traveling at 3-5pm in heavy rain/sleet/snow.... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM...

Agree that people always suck at driving around here, but they're much better off without the inclement weather to add to it. Don't forget about all of the people who use public transportation that may have gotten stranded because they didn't get out a couple hours earlier.

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I haven't measured and I am surprised by the 8" reports in the LWX map for my area. no melting here and snow-covered roads.

does anyone know if Rt 9 in Jefferson County has been re-opened? it had been closed last night from the bridge to Blue Ridge Elementary.

I ilve off of about Rt 9 about a mile from the bridge, I havent been out yet, but traffic does seem to be moving

Final accumulation here was 10"

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Got me beat, Herb. I went to bed with 7.5" for round 2 and that's what I have this morning. So, maybe had a little more and it compacted, but I'm going to go with 10.5" on the day.

Yeah, it's basically a swag. But when I went out to measure last night just before shovelling, was coming up with 8" all over for Round 2, and then a little less than another inch between 8pm and the end. I figure if we're within an inch or so of each other (10.5 vs 11.4), that's a pretty darn good estimation on both sides for the area, especially considering the "compacting factor".

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Hey guys, don't mean to come in and get all OT on ya's, but is the power situation down there that bad off? I'm hearing upwards of 400,000 without power, and my Dad, who works for the local power company up here, just got put on standby to head down there later today. Just trying to give him a heads up of what he might be getting into.

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When I read the NWS statement for "rapidly deteriorating conditions" in the afternoon, I knew it was time to get out of DC -- left DC a little after noon, and had one of the easiest drives home in quite some time. Was back in Columbia 1pm.

But my awful morning commute more than balanced out the easy drive home.

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Hey guys, don't mean to come in and get all OT on ya's, but is the power situation down there that bad off? I'm hearing upwards of 400,000 without power, and my Dad, who works for the local power company up here, just got put on standby to head down there later today. Just trying to give him a heads up of what he might be getting into.

That number sounds about right from the peak of it this morning... With power being restored to areas I would imagine that it has dropped to about 380,000 by now.

Looks like it was over half a million at the peak based on some of the restoration numbers on the sites :yikes:

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Hey guys, don't mean to come in and get all OT on ya's, but is the power situation down there that bad off? I'm hearing upwards of 400,000 without power, and my Dad, who works for the local power company up here, just got put on standby to head down there later today. Just trying to give him a heads up of what he might be getting into.

lots of downed powerlines and trees all over the place

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Hey guys, don't mean to come in and get all OT on ya's, but is the power situation down there that bad off? I'm hearing upwards of 400,000 without power, and my Dad, who works for the local power company up here, just got put on standby to head down there later today. Just trying to give him a heads up of what he might be getting into.

About 91,000+ without power according to BGE.

Very pretty colors

BGE Outage Link

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IMO, warnings but also more info from TV and Radio Mets would have been way helpful. In fact, I really think the TV Mets are more to blame. Certain demographics (older people especially) seem to really rely on them solely. For example, until I told them yesterday morning, my in laws said the TV guys around here were calling for mostly rain and maybe 3-4 inches tops.

My boss let me go at 1 but I know other people stayed in the office till 4-430 right when the changeover started. There was only so much I could do warning them about un-drivable snowfall rates. I know several people that were stuck on I270 until 11PM or later. A friend in VA abandoned his car near Braddock Road.

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