yankeex777 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not done either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The northern stream wave actually kicks out this southern stream 500 mb low eastward and doesn't clobber SNE as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 any mets care to chime in??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sim radar at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 amazing 1"+ i-95 wide and the majority of it has to be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hey guys laying in bed on my phone, how does abe look? much thanks! Snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This storm is gonna keep trending a bit further west imho. I wouldn't want to be in the jackpot just yet, about 24hrs before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not done either. Is it done by 54? on mobile cant check ncep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All of NJ, New york tri-state region, Philly area is at least over .75 inches with most places approaching and exceeding 1 in qpf. Highest qpf is southern jersey in maryland and delaware with over 1.25 inches qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 any mets care to chime in??? One solution out of the 25 different ones we have had the past two days. I think we're converging on the location of the low, but the models generally do not do well with dynamic cooling situations (CCB's as well). Namely, they have a tendency to put out a huge blob of precip instead of pinpointing the band location (due to resolution and convective issues). I find it unlikely that you see a solid blob of 1"+ like that, because there will be areas of subsidence due to banding caused by the CCB. At the same time, the models can also under-do precipitation falling as a result of the band itself. It's something to think about, and we'll see what the rest of the guidance tonight looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Pretty much a borderline MECS for I-95 here, after the first part takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This storm is gonna keep trending a bit further west imho. I wouldn't want to be in the jackpot just yet, about 24hrs before the storm. I think we're in wobble territory, no "trends" at this point. The whole structure of storm formation (if the nam is to be believed) is more in question than any "trend" east or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z nam text data for ABE shows 0.73" liquid with temps in mid to upper 20's through event. Maybe decent ratios even, all levels easily cold enough. 1.24" qpf for PHL, looks to be all snow, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One solution out of the 25 different ones we have had the past two days. I think we're converging on the location of the low, but the models generally do not do well with dynamic cooling situations. Namely, they have a tendency to put out a huge blob of precip instead of pinpointing the band location (due to resolution and convective issues). I find it unlikely that you see a solid blob of 1"+ like that, because there will be areas of subsidence due to banding caused by the CCB. At the same time, the models can also under-do precipitation falling as a result of the band itself. It's something to think about, and we'll see what the rest of the guidance tonight looks like. thanks........i was just wondering since we are now supposedly in "NAM range" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 still feel NAM is on the easterly edge of the guidance solutions but its coming to the center pretty quickly. Look at the beginning panel and the jet punching into this thing that gets the ccb started in the south. its absolutely classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nam develops a great northerly wind north of the cities and keep temps below 32. This run is very cold. NAM soundings suggest this is all snow even at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All of NJ, New york tri-state region, Philly area is at least over .75 inches with most places approaching and exceeding 1 in qpf. Highest qpf is southern jersey in maryland and delaware with over 1.25 inches qpf. Big change up here at KSWF. 12z run had us at 0.00 with QPF. Now thru 60 we are at 0.37 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Indeed. Somehow it just doesn't seem to want to get up this way. No way, no how. No matter what, the end result is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM hasn't been very consistent with this system so I would not trust this solution. But it is a good sign to have heavy qpf and relatively cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This storm is gonna keep trending a bit further west imho. I wouldn't want to be in the jackpot just yet, about 24hrs before the storm. I agree with this 100 % ..NAM is nowhere near its time frame yet with this system and has alot of time to go. Has been the slow outlier since 12 Z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It has probably been mentioned before but worth noting again that this will be another early (very early) morning storm that should be making its exit (at least for NYC and points west) by the Thursday morning commute. Impact should be high nonetheless if QPF verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM soundings suggest this is all snow even at JFK Yep. The Nam is very cold all the way to KJFK. Taken verbatim, this a perfect track for most of the I-95 area and places just west. Of course this NAM and it should not be taken totally verbatim. It has been shifting northwest. Just have to watch the models and not take them at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM looks alot like the 18Z GFS, I think we got another one. If the GFS has a better handle on storm intensity, then PHL to NYC will see possible blizzard conditions tommorow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM hasn't been very consistent with this system so I would not trust this solution. But it is a good sign to have heavy qpf and relatively cold temperatures. The Nam has support from the RGEM,GGEM ( to an extent ),GFS,GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Time to split the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is the winter is that keeps on giving for the I-95 corridor. As long it doesn't continue to tick northwest and create mixing issues, the I-95 corridor looks to be in for another winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM looks alot like the 18Z GFS, I think we got another one. If the GFS has a better handle on storm intensity, then PHL to NYC will see possible blizzard conditions tommorow night. Mitchel, Tomorrow night or Wed night? Think you mean Wed night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOW~DAZE Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM looks alot like the 18Z GFS, I think we got another one. If the GFS has a better handle on storm intensity, then PHL to NYC will see possible blizzard conditions tommorow night. day after tomorrow night actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With 36.1" snowfall to date, New York City currently has the 6th highest October-January figure. Should 3.9" or more fall, NYC will reach 40" or more snowfall before February for only the fifth time. The 10 highest figures are: 1. 44.9", 1947-48 2. 41.1", 1872-73 3. 40.5", 1904-05 and 1995-96 5. 37.1", 2003-04 6. 36.1", 2010-11 7. 35.3", 1960-61 8. 33.5", 1876-77 and 1922-23 10. 32.8", 1883-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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