bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS is probably too far east as its been all year, not by much by probably 50-75 miles. Yeah,I think so.I'll bet the best banding sets up along the western edge of it's heavier QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh, I'm not worried, just noting some of the guidance changes over the last few days. More cold, less qpf , weaker cyclone, and a much faster wake up Thurs morning to bright sunshine type of system (assuming the GFS and NAM have this nailed). hey I'll take my 6-10 and run with it, come bright sunshine or continued heavy snow thurs morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Like clockwork the GFS loses the mega-clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This event reminds me a lot of March 1999 event. Last minute changes in the ETA showed impressive CCB and it snowed like hell in the I-95 after most thought it would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOL would you expect something different based on how this winter has gone so far? Not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This seems like a much colder storm overall from the start to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah the storm has slowed up enough to allow the northern stream to get is a better position to deliver cold air. Wouldn't that make sense aren't northern streams in la nina's faster im probably completely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NOGAPS pretty much agrees with the NAM/GFS with regards to where the CCB sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Agreed. Since we are still 48 HR out, I think we see another 50-75 mile shift, either northwest or southeast. Do you think the GFS or the Euro thermal profiles will win out in the end? And what is going on with the 00z suite that's making the CCB so much more present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah,I think so.I'll bet the best banding sets up along the western edge of it's heavier QPF. Ensembles probably come in west of the OP once again. The best spot for the worst impacts still look to be just west of I-95. Hopefully Long Beach gets its 40th inch from this deal, would be pretty freakin' sweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This event reminds me a lot of March 1999 event. Last minute changes in the ETA showed impressive CCB and it snowed like hell in the I-95 after most thought it would be rain. Its very similar...the temps though in the BL are way colder this time, it got 48-50 that afternoon before the storm...I lost all hope by 5-6pm of anything happening and could not believe when it was down to 34-35 by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Dynamically, the precip should be in WV and western VA at hour 42 on the GFS (that's where the 700 low is and strong lift), but the low and main slug of WAA is east of there along the coast. The dynamics aren't caught up to the storm yet really, so it kind of makes sense that a lot of the precip associated with it is fairly weak, and that the heaviest stuff is near the upper low. But perhaps it's a feedback error of some sort, because there's still an impressive southerly fetch at the mid/lower levels to generate some precip. I would think the precip nearer to the coast is showery/lighter than the stuff over WV and VA at this time, but there should definitely be more of it further west based on these panels and the moist fetch, coupled with whatever upslope it can provide. Not to get weenie-ish, but wouldn't this mean more snow for people like me, Voyager, ptb, etc.? And if the GFS is too far east by 50-75mi, that could mean a worlds of difference for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do you think the GFS or the Euro thermal profiles will win out in the end? And what is going on with the 00z suite that's making the CCB so much more present? It's because the 500, 700, and 850mb lows are strengthening as they approach our area, and close off (allowing stronger lift and better circulation of moisture/dynamics towards us). That all creates a very strong area of heavy snow northwest of them as they pass by. It's key that they strengthen so much near us, since that's when the greatest lift takes place and thus, the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There's our next threat @ hour 144.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ensembles probably come in west of the OP once again. The best spot for the worst impacts still look to be just west of I-95. Hopefully Long Beach gets its 40th inch from this deal, would be pretty freakin' sweet!! This makes up for some of the long snow drought stretches between the big storms when I was growing up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its very similar...the temps though in the BL are way colder this time, it got 48-50 that afternoon before the storm...I lost all hope by 5-6pm of anything happening and could not believe when it was down to 34-35 by 8pm. Ptravel/WxOutlooks NAILED that storm. He used to post forecasts on AOL message board at the time. The night before, he came on ringing the bell saying "thunder with heavy snow...widespread 6+ and whiteouts." I always had so much faith in him. I remember that Sunday afternoon, my friends at my travel soccer game thought I was crazy saying no school on Monday. Sure enough, started as light rain and quickly went to SN by dinner time. I think I got 7 inches in C NJ. It was a nice storm and I think one of the heaviest that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hurricane Schwartz sounded much more excited just now than he did at 6 PM. I watched the video on the NBC 10 web site, and watched live at 11:17pm and he seems to be leaning a little more white then wet. It's a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NOGAPS pretty much agrees with the NAM/GFS with regards to where the CCB sets up. I think the nogaps had a similar, albeit less intense CCB over the area the past couple days actually. It sniffed this solution out pretty early...given that nothing has happened yet its kinda meaningless who picked up on it first, but could be a nogaps coup in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its very similar...the temps though in the BL are way colder this time, it got 48-50 that afternoon before the storm...I lost all hope by 5-6pm of anything happening and could not believe when it was down to 34-35 by 8pm. I don't remember that storm, but I think that no matter what happens with this, it's crazy how awful the set-up was (like literally couldn't be more awful with a coastal taking a perfect track) with the high supposedly exiting stage right as the low climbed the coast...but just like some of these "thread the needle events" we talk about, that being modeled as it was, was probably the high pressure version of threading the needle, where if it exits at the right time to screw everyone within 50-75 miles of the coast. However, just as it is extremely difficult for these thread the needle situations to unfold as we want, the high pressure exited much earlier and more quickly than originally modeled as well as a slower southern stream, and faster following northern stream, allowing much less BL scorching and now we sit here potentially on the verge of our 4th 4+ storm in the NYC area, and potentially our 3rd 8+ storm...either way very encouraging signs tonight lets hope I didn't just jinx it lol and things continue heading in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not to get weenie-ish, but wouldn't this mean more snow for people like me, Voyager, ptb, etc.? And if the GFS is too far east by 50-75mi, that could mean a worlds of difference for some. I'm starting to think the storm is kind of a sloppy mess and not well organized until the upper air dynamics "catch" it late on Wednesday. The GFS is probably wrong in shaving too much from the northern fringes of the storm, but I can see how it arrives at its depiction in a way. The lift and major dynamics are still over WV as the low's main WAA push is headed over us. The storm sort of consolidates and organizes as the system gets closer to stacking, and the lift becomes better aligned with the low center at the surface. You would want the mid-lower level lows to track favorably for your location (probably directly over I-95) to get the heavy snow banding, and once that banding sets up it becomes like a stereotypical coastal system that we've had this winter, with the compact area of heavy snow/banding and little outside it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS was uninspiring for the lower hudson valley and NEPA. Initially it has ample moisture streaming north and beginning to wrap around the developing mid-level center from Ky to Md. And this produces high QPF. But somewhat paradoxically, as the mid-level center matures, the precip field is pulled tigher to the center. As a result, the duration and expanse of the QPF on the NW side is reduced. This should also mean very intense banding across SNE and LI. I like the low tracks and the cold profiles, but I hope it manages to wrap good precip further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There's our next threat @ hour 144.. def a nice threat there...unfortunately (or fortunately since were 7 days out? lol) there isn't enough ridging out ahead of the southern stream s/w and the northern stream doesn't dig enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's only one run of the GFS which has yet to have 2 back to back runs that have looked the same so I'm sure it will change several more times The GFS was uninspiring for the lower hudson valley and NEPA. Initially it has ample moisture streaming north and beginning to wrap around the developing mid-level center from Ky to Md. And this produces high QPF. But somewhat paradoxically, as the mid-level center matures, the precip field is pulled tigher to the center. As a result, the duration and expanse of the QPF on the NW side is reduced. This should also mean very intense banding across SNE and LI. I like the low tracks and the cold profiles, but I hope it manages to wrap good precip further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Feb 2nd storm is back, with polar vortex coming down right after it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This makes up for some of the long snow drought stretches between the big storms when I was growing up here. Just seeing the ice on Reynolds Channel today was awesome. I don't really remember seeing that since Jan 2004. It's really like some kind of tundra out there, although our snow depth is much less than people north of Jericho Turnpike. A 6 hour snow bomb would be the best pinnacle on this awesome last month (and we still have February to go which looks to be cold/active as well!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just seeing the ice on Reynolds Channel today was awesome. I don't really remember seeing that since Jan 2004. It's really like some kind of tundra out there, although our snow depth is much less than people north of Jericho Turnpike. A 6 hour snow bomb would be the best pinnacle on this awesome last month (and we still have February to go which looks to be cold/active as well!!). how long has it been since winter was alive and well in january??? (cold+snow). 2005 I believe...way too long for climatologically the coldest time of the yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It gives us a minor event Friday afternoon/evening as well. About .10" There's our next threat @ hour 144.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can someone tell me what computer models from Channel 7 was looking at? He said mostly a rain event with a slushy 3 inches for the city. That's still a definite possibility. These deformation bands are very hard to track precisely, with very high bust potential. 1/14/2008 was supposed to develop a huge one for NYC, but it fizzled out and developed too late. 12/25/02 wasn't really supposed to but it was a tremendous hit for many in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't remember that storm, but I think that no matter what happens with this, it's crazy how awful the set-up was (like literally couldn't be more awful with a coastal taking a perfect track) with the high supposedly exiting stage right as the low climbed the coast...but just like some of these "thread the needle events" we talk about, that being modeled as it was, was probably the high pressure version of threading the needle, where if it exits at the right time to screw everyone within 50-75 miles of the coast. However, just as it is extremely difficult for these thread the needle situations to unfold as we want, the high pressure exited much earlier and more quickly than originally modeled as well as a slower southern stream, and faster following northern stream, allowing much less BL scorching and now we sit here potentially on the verge of our 4th 4+ storm in the NYC area, and potentially our 3rd 8+ storm...either way very encouraging signs tonight lets hope I didn't just jinx it lol and things continue heading in the right direction. The schools closed where I lived in SE NAssau and that district never ever closed outisde of the 93-94 and 95-96 winters, we were the toughest district on the Island to close for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 how long has it been since winter was alive and well in january??? (cold+snow). 2005 I believe...way too long for climatologically the coldest time of the yr. I missed the big January that you guys had since I was in central PA and the storms jumped over me/missed me , but the last really severe one I remember was 2004. We had the clipper on 1/15 that dumped a good 7" or so on 10 degree temps, and the storm on 1/27 that dumped around a foot here and had incredible snow rates. The cold was incredible too, I believe we dropped to near zero a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.