End of January/early February storm potential?

[AppsRunner]

.14" QPF...thinking about .04" of that would be snow. It falls over nearly two days though.

Well a quarter inch of snow closed down campus... imagine what a half inch would do...

any news on the euro ensembles?? Harry???

ECMWF.int site has them updated... looks like a more eastern track to me... but I only have 24hr increments.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Nice write up by IWX, talking about the system already being stronger than the GFS or EURO are showing.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE SOURCE

FOR THE DIFFERENCES STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE

NORTHERN PACIFIC FLOW SOUTH OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 150W AND

INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. TWO POTENT WAVES IN THIS AREA TODAY WILL

INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING PACIFIC RIDGE WITH ENERGY EVENTUALLY

UNDERCUTTING RIDGE AND MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND. 12Z GFS REMAINS

STEADFAST ON NOT PHASING THIS WAVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE

DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. GFS IS NOW STRONGER WITH

THE NORTHERN WAVE AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION MONDAY

FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC SURGE WITH 1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE

PLAINS AND NOSING INTO OUR AREA. MEANWHILE 00Z AND NOW 12Z ECMWF

REMAINS STEADFAST ON ITS SOLUTION OF PHASING THE AFOREMENTIONED

SHORT WAVES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALLOWING A STRONG SURFACE

LOW TO DEVELOP IN PANHANDLE REGION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO

MIDWEST AND OUR AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW A STRONG SURGE OF

GOMEX MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING AN ISSUE WITH

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER SHALLOW ARCTIC WEDGE.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW TO SEVERAL

PERIODS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AS WAVES

BECOME SAMPLED BETTER. A PEEK AT THE GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS OVER

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INDEED SHOWED MORE BACKING AND A STRONGER SYSTEM

THAN EITHER GFS OR ECMWF INDICATED SO EXPECT MODELS TO BEGIN

CONVERGING ON

[Hoosier]

Well a quarter inch of snow closed down campus... imagine what a half inch would do...

ECMWF.int site has them updated... looks like a more eastern track to me... but I only have 24hr increments.

Looks like the mean shifted west though.

[A-L-E-K]

Nice write up by IWX, talking about the system already being stronger than the GFS or EURO are showing.

Interesting stuff on the pacific energy, which baro pointed out was the key, those looking for the big cutter need that to survive where so many have failed and I think a stronger storm raises those odds.

Looks like the mean shifted west though.

agree and that's pretty big news

[Srain]

Looks like the mean shifted west though.

Yep.

[baroclinic_instability]

Nice write up by IWX, talking about the system already being stronger than the GFS or EURO are showing.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE SOURCE

FOR THE DIFFERENCES STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE

NORTHERN PACIFIC FLOW SOUTH OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 150W AND

INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. TWO POTENT WAVES IN THIS AREA TODAY WILL

INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING PACIFIC RIDGE WITH ENERGY EVENTUALLY

UNDERCUTTING RIDGE AND MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND. 12Z GFS REMAINS

STEADFAST ON NOT PHASING THIS WAVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE

DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. GFS IS NOW STRONGER WITH

THE NORTHERN WAVE AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION MONDAY

FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC SURGE WITH 1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE

PLAINS AND NOSING INTO OUR AREA. MEANWHILE 00Z AND NOW 12Z ECMWF

REMAINS STEADFAST ON ITS SOLUTION OF PHASING THE AFOREMENTIONED

SHORT WAVES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALLOWING A STRONG SURFACE

LOW TO DEVELOP IN PANHANDLE REGION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO

MIDWEST AND OUR AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW A STRONG SURGE OF

GOMEX MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING AN ISSUE WITH

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER SHALLOW ARCTIC WEDGE.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW TO SEVERAL

PERIODS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NEED SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AS WAVES

BECOME SAMPLED BETTER. A PEEK AT THE GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS OVER

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INDEED SHOWED MORE BACKING AND A STRONGER SYSTEM

THAN EITHER GFS OR ECMWF INDICATED SO EXPECT MODELS TO BEGIN

CONVERGING ON

Good disco--at least they mention the players here and the Pacific Ridge, and the waves undercutting said ridge.

[A-L-E-K]

for s's and g's

[baroclinic_instability]

The NAM looks Euro like. What is that silly rule? EE rule? So it looks like the E-N rule may be applicable.

[buckeye]

not an indice guru but nao is expected to be pos or nearing it....ao definitely pos. EC is probably out of it by those alone.

only uh oh for all might be the mjo which is expected to enter the circle of death at projected storm time.

[Hoosier]

not an indice guru but nao is expected to be pos or nearing it....ao definitely pos. EC is probably out of it by those alone.

only uh oh for all might be the mjo which is expected to enter the circle of death at projected storm time.

Isn't there a lag time with that though?

[AppsRunner]

Looks like the mean shifted west though.

Definitely. That's pretty deep for a Ensemble Mean at this time too... sub 1005mb

[buckeye]

Isn't there a lag time with that though?

there's also this one.....looks much better, not sure if it's diff models

[Baum]

MKE rains on Bowme's parade..:

BEFORE GETTING TO EXCITED...GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE APPROACHING

PACIFIC THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL MORE LIKELY BE NONE

OF THE CURRENT MODELS. CANADIAN TAKES THE LOW MORE TOWARD THE EAST

COAST. THEREFORE A CONSENSUS SEEMS BEST AT THIS TIME WITH A

SLIGHTLY GREATER INPUT FROM THE ECMWF...INSTEAD OF PICKING ONE

MODEL FROM THE GFS OR ECMWF.

sure do miss that great Met...Torchartie

[Ajdos]

dtx

LOOKING INTO MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A 110KT JET OVER THE GREAT LAKESWITH ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MTNWEST WILL PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURESYSTEM GAINS STRENGTH IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. TRACK AND TIMINGOF THE LOW IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EVENT IS WORTH MENTIONAT THIS TIME. ECMWF KEEPS THE FEATURE AROUND FOR SEVERAL PERIODSWHILE THE GFS QUICKLY SHEERS IT TO THE EAST BEFORE IT CAN DEVELOPTOO DEEP. HAVE GONE WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...ANDHIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED ONLY WHEN MODELS COME TO A BETTERCONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONE MAIN CHANGE FOR EXTENDED PERIOD WASTO INCREASE TEMPS AHEAD OF THE LOW TUES AM...BUT WILL BE IN VAIN IFTHE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

[Hoosier]

another look at the Euro ensemble mean

[A-L-E-K]

MKE rains on Bowme's parade..:

BEFORE GETTING TO EXCITED...GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE APPROACHING

PACIFIC THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL MORE LIKELY BE NONE

OF THE CURRENT MODELS. CANADIAN TAKES THE LOW MORE TOWARD THE EAST

COAST. THEREFORE A CONSENSUS SEEMS BEST AT THIS TIME WITH A

SLIGHTLY GREATER INPUT FROM THE ECMWF...INSTEAD OF PICKING ONE

MODEL FROM THE GFS OR ECMWF.

sure do miss that great Met...Torchartie

From that little excerpt sounds like they might have taken him on part-time up at MKE.

[Baum]

From that little excerpt sounds like they might have taken him on part-time up at MKE.

ahead of his time..no doubt

[A-L-E-K]

Euro ensemble mean looks pretty good all things considered. I think the trends since 12z yesterday have been positive.

EDIT: little bit of lolz with this considering their discussion yesterday

LOT leaning Euro

OF MORE INTEREST PERHAPS IS

THE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH LIFTS

ALONG A SRN IL TO KFWA LINE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY PERFECTLY. GIVEN SUCH RANGE

IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH

HPC PREFERS AT THIS TIME. HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW EARLY

NEXT WEEK...

[Moneyman]

GB:

MAJOR MDL DISCREPANCIES ARISE BY SUNDAY NGT AS THE ECMWF ALLOWS

ENERGY TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF AND DVLPS AN AREA OF LOW

PRES OVR W-CNTRL TX. THIS SFC LOW WOULD THEN TRACK NE THROUGH THE

MID-MS VALLEY ON MON AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ERN GREAT LKS ON TUE.

THE UKMET HAS THE SAME UPR FEATURES AS THE ECMWF...BUT HAS MORE OF

A SUPPRESSED SFC LOW TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS NEVER

ALLOWS THIS SRN ENERGY TO LIFT NEWD AND INSTEAD BUILDS THE LRG

ARCTIC HI OVR THE CNTRL CONUS. AS MENTIONED ABV...THE ENSEMBLES

FAVOR THE ECMWF AND IF THIS IS TRUE...NE WI WOULD BE LOOKING AT A

FULL-FLEDGED SNOW STORM MON NGT INTO TUE WITH 6+ INCHES. PLENTY OF

TIME YET TO TRY AND SORT THIS OUT...BUT HAVE ADDED CHC POPS TO THE

FCST FOR STARTERS.

[Organizing Low]

gfs gotta play ball

[Hoosier]

gfs gotta play ball

See ya tomorrow or Friday

[Indystorm]

GFS hasn't had the best track record of late. Yet with IWX noticing stronger parameters out in the Pacific than current models indicate I would think a stronger system might run risks of being somewhat like our New Year's storm here in the Midwest, at least with mixing issues if not a full WAA rainstorm for southern parts. Gotta see how things trend.

[A-L-E-K]

See ya tomorrow or Friday

Your thread is off to a good start.

[TheWeatherPimp]

The only thing that helps keep hope alive in my mind is the strength of the cold air mass. That should at least help keep this thing from cutting to far to the left, but we'll see. A lot of details to be worked out yet, but the risk of a stronger system means the risk of mostly rain for much of Indiana and Ohio.

[Stebo]

See ya tomorrow or Friday

Ya I'd be shocked if the GFS caught on this run, my guess is not until Friday maybe not even until Saturday.

[Hoosier]

The only thing that helps keep hope alive in my mind is the strength of the cold air mass. That should at least help keep this thing from cutting to far to the left, but we'll see. A lot of details to be worked out yet, but the risk of a stronger system means the risk of mostly rain for much of Indiana and Ohio.

I'm still interested in the ice potential with this for areas that can maintain low level easterly flow.

[Thundersnow12]

12z euro a great hit for here...perfect looking sfc low track as we stay all snow.

I believe .25" liquid falls at ORD in 6hrs.

nice to see the NAM looking like the euro.

[A-L-E-K]

Ya I'd be shocked if the GFS caught on this run, my guess is not until Friday maybe not even until Saturday.

12z made some good changes compared to 0z, I think we see more by 12z tomorrow

[TheWeatherPimp]

I'm still interested in the ice potential with this for areas that can maintain low level easterly flow.

I agree, especially for areas along and North of I-70 in Indiana. Will all depend on where this low tracks, but as I said a few pages back, just with the air masses we have in play alone, this thing has some ice potential with it.

[snowstormcanuck]

18z DGEX is going to play ball. Looks a little earlier with the threat though, around 108-132. Only reason I mention it is because it may be a sign of things to come wrt the 18z GFS.