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Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
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Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
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High CAPE moderate shear severe weather outbreak is becoming likely on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, including our own Mid-South. While the southern Plains may get rocked, my focus will be in/near our subforum region and the Mid-South. Friday IL/IN may go in Illinois and Indiana as the Thursday night Plains MCS ejects up that way and leaves an outflow boundary warm front hybrid. Friday heights will be rising slightly, and the next short-wave may be back in Missouri, but IL/IN will have high CAPE on a boundary. Still I would at least watch Friday. Atmosphere sometimes give hints of over/under the day before. Saturday could be a severe weather outbreak all the way from Oklahoma to Ohio, including all points in between and slightly south. Sunday morning the Saturday reports chart may look like something from an April outbreak. This time we trade in strong wind shear for high CAPE. Speed shear will be plenty for supercells though. Low level shear will be quite impressive on the synoptic warm front and any outflow boundaries from Friday night rain in Hosier Alley. Mid-South: On Saturday morning I expect a warm front and/or outflow boundaries to be draped near the Ohio River. Low pressure should track out of Missouri into the region. Smaller meso-lows are possible along the Ohio River Valley boundary as it lifts north. Locally higher storm-relative-helicity will be found east of any lows and really all along the boundary. Low level jet, which has frustrated Plains chasers, will be pumping right into the Mid-South. Mid-upper level winds will be WSW, none of this VBV prone SSW stuff. Though speed shear is not exceptionally high, turning with height and CAPE will both be robust. Stout upper level wave will come out by 00Z 5/28 and spark severe thunderstorms ahead of itself Saturday afternoon. SPC has Enhanced Risk Day 3. Pretty easy to read between the lines that a Moderate Risk is coming, perhaps as early as Day 2. MDT would probably centered from eastern OK into the Ozarks, but may extend into our Mid-South. At any rate Saturday severe storms are likely and may include tornadoes.
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20hr nam has it.
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Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding. For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy....
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Looks like a fairly active pattern over the latter part of this week and perhaps early next week particularly for the western side of our region.....Obviously severe is always a short fuse situation but it was most interesting to see SPC start actually using Day 6 severe outlooks (and potentially beyond).
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Pretty early to be in a Day 5 outlooked area for severe. Discuss upcoming threats, potential season impacting factors and more in this thread.
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Just figured I'd get a main thread going for the potential impacts of the remnants of Tropical Storm Odile on the Southern Plains to organize the discussion. So far, the Euro has backed off of its prolific rainfall totals (up to 17" SW of OKC) that it showed yesterday, but forecasts keep bouncing around a bit as is to be expected, with the GFS now shifting the swath of heaviest rain into northern OK from southern KS and the 84-hr NAM doing the same. WPC Discussion Threw this together from the GFS forecast PWAT and the climatological PWAT graph from OUN to demonstrate their point: Forecast Offices Graphics Norman Amarillo Drought Monitor And just for fun, a discussion from the Oklahoma State Climatologist of the heaviest rainfall events in Oklahoma history (all due to tropical remnants): http://ticker.mesonet.org/select.php?mo=09&da=16&yr=2014 This post has been promoted to an article
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OK mountain folks it is time to dive into spring and hope we see some good thunderstorm activity and start the long haul towards summer.
