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Showing results for tags 'flooding'.
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We don't get a ton of activity once severe season ends, so this thread should carry us til September/Fall. -
Thursday will be a regional severe wx outbreak. @CheeselandSkies I think SPC was waiting for American guidance to come toward the ECMWF. It was stubbornly slow this time. Regardless of how we got here, we are at hatched ENH Day 3 now. First thing I noticed with 12Z guidance is that 500/200 mb winds are forecast WSW. Some of the sloppy South days those winds are SSW. From the SW is plenty of turning. From the WSW as forecast offers robust turning with height. No strange 700 mb winds, smooth forecast hodographs. LLJ is still forecast S or SSW, correct for South severe, even on the squirrelly GFS runs. Winds of course strengthen with height too. Warm sector looks a little bigger than last week defined by northward extent of the synoptic warm front. That does not necessarily mean intense severe weather farther north. That'll depend on the outflow boundary situated south of the warm front, and influenced by midday rain. Undisturbed warm sector soundings should have a little EML and lots of instability. Background pattern is there for a severe weather outbreak. Mesoscale details remain up in the air as usual Day 3, including the size of the region impacted.
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- tennesse
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Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
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Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
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High CAPE moderate shear severe weather outbreak is becoming likely on Saturday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, including our own Mid-South. While the southern Plains may get rocked, my focus will be in/near our subforum region and the Mid-South. Friday IL/IN may go in Illinois and Indiana as the Thursday night Plains MCS ejects up that way and leaves an outflow boundary warm front hybrid. Friday heights will be rising slightly, and the next short-wave may be back in Missouri, but IL/IN will have high CAPE on a boundary. Still I would at least watch Friday. Atmosphere sometimes give hints of over/under the day before. Saturday could be a severe weather outbreak all the way from Oklahoma to Ohio, including all points in between and slightly south. Sunday morning the Saturday reports chart may look like something from an April outbreak. This time we trade in strong wind shear for high CAPE. Speed shear will be plenty for supercells though. Low level shear will be quite impressive on the synoptic warm front and any outflow boundaries from Friday night rain in Hosier Alley. Mid-South: On Saturday morning I expect a warm front and/or outflow boundaries to be draped near the Ohio River. Low pressure should track out of Missouri into the region. Smaller meso-lows are possible along the Ohio River Valley boundary as it lifts north. Locally higher storm-relative-helicity will be found east of any lows and really all along the boundary. Low level jet, which has frustrated Plains chasers, will be pumping right into the Mid-South. Mid-upper level winds will be WSW, none of this VBV prone SSW stuff. Though speed shear is not exceptionally high, turning with height and CAPE will both be robust. Stout upper level wave will come out by 00Z 5/28 and spark severe thunderstorms ahead of itself Saturday afternoon. SPC has Enhanced Risk Day 3. Pretty easy to read between the lines that a Moderate Risk is coming, perhaps as early as Day 2. MDT would probably centered from eastern OK into the Ozarks, but may extend into our Mid-South. At any rate Saturday severe storms are likely and may include tornadoes.
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20hr nam has it.
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Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding. For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy....
