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  1. Josh may have a little nasty encounter with the eyewall if he stays put as the core may take on a more WNW/NW vector soon as the vortex is clearly getting stacked and should feel the deep layer motion. Really this jog should be temporary given structure.
  2. Sickening radar returns across PR. This is going to be a devastating flooding impact there. Several gust reports over 100 mph, definitely a feisty storm. Will be interesting seeing if Josh can get the eye in DR
  3. Was actually expecting to see Josh here.
  4. I think it’ll be a hurricane, but that center reformation has me spooked that I’d miss the center. One thing that I think I learned from Josh is island roulette is a dangerous game. If I land in PR tonight and things shift to a landfall in DR or the USVI there’s nothing I can do.
  5. TUTTs have been really hurting both Pacific and Atlantic. Gonna need to watch more reruns of Josh’s adventures lol.
  6. Based on my memory, these fruit based terms were originated 10+ years ago by board member and chaser, Josh Morgerman. And they stuck!
  7. Josh still lurks so Hey Josh what’s with the grey hair and greying beard?? I remember when you were Too Young to grow facial hair!!!
  8. Just to jump off topic here, briefly, Josh was never in a reporting capacity for TWC. They reached out to him while he was on his regular chase schedule for several hurricanes. The WN gig was their decision to contract him for work and he took it. Fred was not a normal chase. Additionally, Josh now lives on the Gulf coast during hurricane season for this very reason. He has a particularly great skill set that can be advantageous for any particular network coverage. That being said, if there is an intense hurricane landfall, he's going to be in chase mode, not coverage mode. At any rate, no need to berate the man for getting paid. Speaking of...
  9. I'm posting this comment in the banter thread, as I would suspect any convo regarding chasers (more personally) would be more applicable outside the main storm specific thread. That said, I wanted to make it abundantly clear that I was (and am) genuinely excited for Josh to have intercepted the eye and core of Dorian. Unlike some, I don't get jealous of others' chasing success. Why should they? It has no relevancy on their own chase abilities. My wholly scientically objective observation that the winds don't appear to have been any higher in Marsh Harbour than those I happened to observe on the western-most portion of Mexico Beach, shouldn't be taken as somehow an attempt at minimizing the effects on Marsh Harbour. The only relevancy to Josh in such evaluation is simply an objective review of the winds he documented on video. As stated multiple times already, I feel he captured genuine Cat 5 winds on video...which is a VERY rare occurrence. It makes zero difference that I happened to be the one who documented the highest winds in Michael or that Josh happened to be the one documenting Dorian in MH. The only relevancy between the two is that each intercept location experienced the greatest impact from the two storms, respectively. Thus, my own personal interest in knowing what the peak MSW might've been at each specific locality. Given Josh is typically in the core of a major landfalling hurricane at or near ground-zero, I can understand why some might misinterpret my objective analysis of the peak winds that most likely were encountered in that area, and falsely presume I have some stupid ulterior motive or "agenda". Nothing could be further from the truth! Even when some resorted to unjustified personal attacks when I respectfully argued that all the objective scientific data clearly suggested Patricia wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall, I didn't waver on my wholly objective opinion. Subsequently, the NHC agreed with my precise 130 kt estimate. Similar instances occurred in discussion of Michael's landfall intensity. Yet again, my best educated guess (based solely on the objective scientific data) was validated in the NHC TCR. Now, some are taking exception to my objective viewpoint that Marsh Harbour didn't get anywhere close to those one-minute 10 m estimated MSWs. Unlike with Michael, we have a lot less access to all the available data, whereby making a specific best educated estimate of the MSW encountered in MH is far more problematic. That's why I've asked if anyone knows of any additional data that may be available? Regardless, I'm confident that MH saw a MSW of at least 140 kt. I don't personally consider chasing a sport, much less a competition with other chasers. In sequence of events, my initial goal is to either get into the eye or the area of strongest winds from a documentation standpoint. Secondly, record the barometric pressure at that location. Currently in the process of obtaining an anemometer to accurately record wind measurements in future intercepts. Next, to assist with search and rescue following a devastating event...followed by documentation of the aftermath. Lastly, I always have (since Katrina in 2005) and always will devote at least one full day to assisting with the cleanup. This is one thing I wish all chasers would do, and feel we all should do, considering we intentionally place ourselves in these areas of greatest impact and often times benefit from doing so. Regardless of the other ways we help, I still think it's the least we can do...but that's just me. This post is long enough. But, I just simply wanted to share my personal viewpoints on the contents contained herein to help those who might misinterpret them. Thanks for taking the time to read it. Hope all have a great rest of the day!
  10. Yes, it is. And yes, it can be. Yet Reed yelling tornado, Josh hangin on to a palm as building parts flash by his head and Frankie telling the world that Fargo is going to be inhospitable is what gets the clicks and likes. Makes no sense. But I will continue to show the weather in its beauty in stealth. It just looks so cool that I have to do it.
  11. Haven’t had any rain since like noon. But at least a bottle of Josh and steak take the pain away.
  12. Glad you're okay Josh! We had an EF2 go through Hamburg 1/2 mile from my house a few yrs ago and it wasn't really predicted well here either as they are so rare around this area. Believe SPC had 5% hatch for tornados, but it spun up so fast coming off the lake that the warning was quite late.
  13. Some of you know Josh Morgerman an avid Hurricane chaser and who is part of the AMWX community. I met him years ago at one of the AMWX get-togethers. Really nice guy. Last year he teamed up with a UK producer and created the new series Hurricane Man. A crew traveled with Josh as he traveled the globe in pursuit of tropical cyclones. The first episode aired on British cable last night. I understand it is really good. Lots of epic footage. A US cable channel just picked it up but it's not 100% finalized so Josh can't say who they are but he did say it's one of the major channels most people get. Should be a good show. I think Josh has chased more tropical cyclones than anyone else in the world. That is quite a feat!
  14. It's the first day of met winter, so figured I'd set up shop. FWA climo is unfortunately closer to Ohio's than the rest of the Sub's, so I may just camp out here. The fall thread was only a couple of pages, but this thread has contained some classic-epic-historic meltdowns in past winters, so I want make sure there is a place to vent. I figured I'd start by taking a jab at Josh. Congrats on snagging Baez lol. I say this being Being a Cubs fan for the past 55 years. Don't get me wrong, he is an exciting player and has a knack for making outstanding plays, both on defense and running the bases. He no doubt played a big part in the run to the '16 Series. But my God, if pitchers would just feed him nothing but hooks and changeups, he would be batting a buck 20. I don't know why anyone would throw heat to him that is anywhere close to the zone. Below is a video grab of him taking a hack against the Giants in August. This is NOT the ball coming off of his bat, but a change-up heading TO the plate.
  15. Lol, Those were all 18 hr dusters to get 3 inches. Congrats to us. You cant count those as actual snowstorms. Those events prob didnt even have a dry slot. Come on josh. Just for once admit east of the glacier ridge sucks for snowstorms. Enjoy your snow y'all. Send pics to remind josh what a real 6 inch snow looks like.
  16. Yeah the Titans made two huge mistakes: dropping the spy on Lamar on that 48 yard run, and abandoning the long passing game that tore up Baltimore’s secondary in the first half. They thought they could win by running Henry into an eight man box. The Bills won’t make the first mistake. Tennessee stomped Baltimore in last year’s playoffs because they schemed to contain Lamar on every play. The Bills will do the same, except Buffalo has a far better defense than the Titans. And on offense, Josh needs to keep hitting Baltimore on the long shots as long as they’re giving them away. But it will be important to have the running game going if Baltimore drops multiple LBs into pass coverage. Josh can tuck and run, but the Ravens will cheap shot a QB at any opportunity. I can see Cleveland winning in KC in a shocker. If the Bills take care of business against Baltimore, two weeks from today they could be playing in Orchard Park for the Super Bowl.
  17. Josh. How many times has DTW beat out ORD since 2000
  18. We have a group of 15 or so that go up there to hike with us. We backpack, day trip, 3-5 day camping trips the last few years. My first peak was Mt. Marcy in 2017 and I should be finishing this year, so 5 years to complete. It's over a 6 hour drive each way, so whenever I go up there I try to hit 1-2 high peaks. I've hiked all over the place and those mountains are still my hardest climbs. My west coast hikes were much easier than the ADK hikes. It has to do with the terrain up there. They are just so steep and long, the west coast hikes you start at a higher elevation and the terrain is more smooth. I usually bring the wife and dog with me but we also do many without them. Preparation is everything up there. Those mountains are unforgiving. Saturdays hike started at -22 degrees, my water tube froze in the first few minutes. I also lost my insulated water bottle about 2 miles from the top and nearly gave up and walked back. So many of these hikes are mental. My body started cramping pretty bad which usually doesn't happen. The cold really got to me. Also the deep snow was difficult, no one was on the trail before us. I usually do an hour of yoga/stretching the day before the hike and then 10 mins or so stretch right before. I bring about 6 liters of water/body armor for any hike greater then 12 miles. I drink about a liter per 2-3 miles. A mile in ADK isn't a typical mile. A typical ADK mile at my speed is 30-35 minutes and I am a very fast hiker, most people take 40-45 minutes+ per mile. I bring pickle juice or something salty to help with cramps. Chips work as well. I bring 1-2 PBNJ sandwiches and lots of trail mix/nuts. You have to prepare a lot for the winter hikes as conditions up there can be very dangerous. A guy from East Aurora died up there last year. A healthy 41 year old man. https://buffalonews.com/news/local/east-aurora-man-41-dies-while-hiking-in-the-adirondacks/article_96c471aa-0018-11ec-9ff0-832cd4c850d7.html Sometimes up there in winter you won't run into anyone for the entire 18 miles, if anything happens its on your partner to go back to the start of the hike and get help. There is no cell phone service and it is 5-6 hours back to the entrance. In summer you almost always have people on the trail. I would never hike solo in winter unless I knew more people would be on the trail or a very popular winter hiking peak like I did a few weeks ago. It also helps alot that I follow the weather and know what the conditions are going to be like up there. There are a little over 13,000 ADK 46ers. A few have done all of them in winter and in summer. I've done 8 in winter and 32 in the other seasons. Should be finishing up later this fail on Allen with our Josh Allen jerseys. Me, my buddy and his dad are going to finish all at the same time. Want to add I also eat a banana and granola bar the morning of the hike and bring 1 banana and 4-5 clementines on the hike. Most of these hikes range anywhere from 8-18 hours, unless backpacking.
  19. From Josh Fox a few weeks ago: "Judah Cohen had some interesting thoughts in his blog a few weeks ago about what might happen to the Alberta Clipper in a climate changed world. I don't want to get into the weeds on that topic now but it is important to note how glaringly impotent the clipper has been in terms of producing snowfall in Vermont this winter." I tried to look into what exactly Dr. Cohen had said but was unable to locate the blog post he wrote about the topic at length, so I don't know exactly what factors he was referencing for the "decline of the clipper". Regardless, it is interesting that people are looking into the fundamentals behind what drives the frequency of these events. Is this an overreaction to this winter's lack of potent clipper events? Or is this a trend that has been witnessed over longer timescales? (again, I wish I could find exactly what Dr. Cohen was referencing. If anyone knows where this was posted, I would certainly appreciate the link). Certainly an interesting topic though. Anyways, definitely encouraging to see these events survive the mid-range and appear set to deliver a wintery week. Definitely what we need for a good run of spring skiing as we progress deeper into March.
  20. No worries Rich, I heard that Josh's friends staged an intervention and all pitched in to rent a winch truck to unwad Josh's panties with.

  21. Yesterday it had the heavier band up by flint, now today Josh has reeled it in. No more SE! Unbelievable the SE trends these past few storms.
  22. Well the GFS has gone in that direction big time! Yep. Me and Josh using the magnet powers.
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