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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Slight change in the HWRF from last run
  2. Amped
    12Z GFS has a storm again. ICON and CMC also have it. This would make for one of the larger flip flops I've seen models do if it verifies.
  3. Amped
    Gonna post Josh's Twitter on Roslyn. Sounds pretty insane.
  4. Amped
    00z gfs and 00z CMC are in. They are in somewhat better agreement although the CMC is further west. They both agree that the upper level troff lifting out from 120hrs-132hrs will be the instigating event. THE SW end of it gets left behind in the E Caribbean and forms a TC when the trade winds resume to the north of it. If the ridging over the gulf day 7-10 verifies It will likely force the storm to go over Nicaragua or Honduras.
  5. Amped
    Drifting around the Caribbean for 10 days in October/November doesn't really seem to likely. Probably going to get picked up by a troff or tucked under the ridge into the central American coast a lot sooner. It pulls some Mahomes moves this run to stay over water.
  6. Amped
    Okay the 00z CMC has a storm, now I'm officially interested since it's on at least 2 models. 00z GFS says it's >50% of the ACE for the entire 2022 season. Seems to be the trend for the GFS this season.
  7. Amped
  8. Amped
    Nothing in the foreseeable future.
  9. Amped
    Gfs is pure hurricane porn. Slow wnw track, just keeps getting bigger and stronger as it moves towards the Yucatan.
  10. Amped
    Not an immediate threat. Any development will not occur until the weekend in the central Caribbean like some EPS and GEFS members are showing.
  11. Amped
    Icon is trying to develop something at 120hrs in the S central Caribbean. This is close to what the EPS members had. If 90L develops it will be this weekend or early next week after it gets past the ULL.
  12. Amped
    Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate. Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.
  13. Amped
    I'd feel much better about it's long term prospects if it didn't have the ULL to survive. It will likely reverse most of the organization that occurs in the next 36hrs.
  14. Amped
    In Maria and Katrina a lot of deaths occurred in the humanitarian crisis after the storm. something to keep in mind.
  15. Amped
    The CMC is the first to show a real storm. CMC was overdone on the westward movement of Ian and Fiona, that maybe what allows it to escape the ULL on this run.
  16. Amped
    Just hope it will be over by Thursday day 6 of this mess.
  17. Amped
    Ian was 47TJ while Charley was only 7TJ. Also Ian was moving at about 8mph while Charley was moving close to 20. That combined with size made a big difference in storm duration. https://www.rms.com/blog/2018/10/19/comparing-major-hurricane-michael-to-recent-gulf-hurricanes-using-integrated-kinetic-energy
  18. Amped
    Frontal zone over the plains. There's a 20 degree temp difference.
  19. Amped
    Matches with the models having a coastal plane wind hole.
  20. Amped
    More fun times ahead.
  21. Amped
    Not looking tropical anymore. I might have guessed this was from 1/24/2000 if it was shown to me with no date.
  22. Amped
    That is strange almost looks like a tornado but it's not 3 dimensional.
  23. Amped
    This thing never quits. Can't imagine the horror stories we'll hear in the coming days of people clinging to a tree for 10 hrs.
  24. Amped
    Al Roker did it in 2005
  25. Amped
    So the backside was stronger with less videos from it?
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