weathermedic

Slight chance of severe weather later this afternoon/evening. Per NWS OKX: Attention then turns to the approaching cold front this afternoon into this evening and an associated line of showers and thunderstorms. High resolution models are in reasonable agreement with a broken line of showers and storms crossing the area between approximately 3pm and 8pm. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with the best chances for any stronger storms across the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast New Jersey, and into southwest Connecticut, where warmer surface temperatures will help maximize instability. Damaging wind gusts are the greatest threat in any stronger storms that are able to develop, although an isolated tornado isn`t entirely out of the question. Showers and storms should decrease in intensity as they approach the coast this evening and encounter more stable marine air.

Heavy rain, some thunder and lightning and gusty winds here in Sheepshead Bay

37 degrees at 6 am. Was supposed to be 32-33 for overnight low.

Wind gusted to 31 mph and temp up to 57 at noon at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Barometer 28.83.

51 at my station in Sheepshead Bay with a southeast wind.

Sun peeking out here at work just east of JFK airport.

Lowest barometric pressure I can find is 28.88 at several locations in NJ.

Wind advisories up for basically the entire area tomorrow afternoon. From OKX late afternoon AFD: With the low rapidly deepening as it moves away, quick pressure rises with the onset of cold air advection will produce gusty conditions in the afternoon and evening with gusts continuing well into the night. The strongest gusts will be in the afternoon and early evening when modeled 850mb winds range mostly 45-65 kt. Will issue a wind advisory for all zones 18z-00z. Gusts up to around 50 mph are anticipated. Even some coastal areas may reach advisory criteria based on sustained winds of 30 mph.

Some mangled flakes mixed with the rain here in southern Brooklyn as well. Temp 37 degrees.

Feb 78 still gets my vote. I was a kid but remember it well. The huge drifts that were everywhere was amazing. One side of the street had asphalt showing while the other was buried under drifts. Dec 2010 came close with the drifting.

DT released his winter forecast:

Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog says most of US to be in pac zonal flow with periodic cold air intrusions between the Rockies and Appalachians at least through the 3rd week of December.

He usually predicts something similar every year

Here is another "early" winter weather forecast: https://www.weatherconcierge.com/the-weather-concierge-winter-forecast-of-2018-19/

Bernie Rayno says to follow the upper low (just north of it's track) for the snow. Will make its own cold air. Has the northern half of PA, southern NYS and northern half of NJ, NYC and western L.I. for a changeover to snow.

...Or the once an hour (during the daytime hours-report was usually repeated for a couple of hours before it would be updated 2 or 3 times a day) for a live Accuweather report on 1010 WINS when Dr. Joe Sobel or Eliot Abrams or JB would come on the air.

Bernie Rayno said upcoming pattern looks like the first couple of weeks in Feb will be cold and stormy in the east. Not too enthusiastic about Mon-Tue. Says that may give eastern New England a few inches of snow. He said pattern looks like it wants to form a storm and move it up along the eastern seaboard in the next week Friday time frame. We shall see.

Jeff Smith from Channel 7 in NYC (AccuWeather outlet) just updated snowfall amounts

Bernie Rayno (used the word epic) heading in to work to make a video. Says no reason not to go with the 12z European. Also said to expect at least some mixing into I-95. "Tremendous" snow just west of 95

Well Bernie Rayno just tweeted he thinks there will be some mixing up to I-95 with the storm. Maybe he (and AccuWeather) are factoring that in to accumulations?

Bernie posted on Twitter a short while ago the GFS 12Z 500mb map is slowly coming around to the Euro showing a stronger storm for Sat-Sun. He will have a new video coming out after 2pm.

Nick Gregory's (from FOX-5 NYC) winter forecast http://www.fox5ny.com/weather/214931324-story?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter