OKX 1:49pm updated AFD:
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
H5 was at 596 dam per the 12z okx sounding, so a hot airmass in
place. 16z laps has 3500 cape across nern NJ with cin there now
erased. This trend will continue across all but the shore in the
next few hours. The first place tstms should develop would be
across NJ where stlt shows building towers. Shear is extremely
weak so multicellular mode is expected. Dcape is up to 850 and
will rise to abv 1000 per the 12z NAM. Pops have been increased
across the area and expanded ewd. Strong winds and hvy rain have
also been included in the fcst, with the hwo and ehwo updated.
Slow storm motion of 5kt or less will enhance the flood risk. Pw
on the 12z sounding was 1.52 which correlated nicely with the
NAM.The NAM however models pw to increase to over 2.5 across wrn
portions of the cwa over the next few hours.