weathermedic

From Upton’s Early morning AFD: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A warm front approaches the region this morning. Warm advection ahead of the front coupled with lowering heights will be enough to support a band of showers and a few rumbles of thunders to develop across the NYC metro, Hudson River Corridor, western Long Island, and southwest Connecticut during the morning commute. There could be pockets of moderate to heavy rain. The showers should largely hold off further east until after the morning commute. No concerns for severe weather at this time due to lack of surface instability and no apparent wave along the warm front to enhance low level shear.

Up to 1.70 inches for the day so far here in Sheepshead Bay.

1.21. so far for the day at my station in Sheepshead Bay.

Low clouds and fog hanging tough as I drive through the Rockaways in Queens. Car temp of 68

From OKX AFD: Dry this morning, then expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop with a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front as it approaches later today. CAPE and shear will result in the organization for thunderstorms today. There is decent amount of CAPE in hail growth region. Specifically, RAP model is conveying 0-6km bulk shear of 25-35 kt moving into the region this afternoon with surface CAPE of around 1500-2000 J/kg. There is a chance some of the storms become severe. Main threats with these thunderstorms will be gusty winds, hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. There is a moderate risk of rip current development on the Atlantic beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Evening starts off with the cold front right about to enter the region. Bulk shear 0-6km maximizes in 30-40 kt early this evening will allow for thunderstorms to remain organized but decreasing CAPE will lead to some loss of strength to the thunderstorms. Expecting the western half of the forecast region to be numerous to widespread with showers and thunderstorms and by the mid evening expecting this greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms to spread to the eastern half of the region if not shortly before. Same threat with thunderstorms before in the afternoon but again do expect a little weakening with the lower amounts of CAPE for Southeast Connecticut and Eastern Long Island where temperatures will be lower with the greater maritime influence.

1.3 here in Sheepshead Bay so far.

Down to 57 here in Sheepshead Bay now

That squall line across central PA looks like it means business. Tornado watch up for Sullivan County NY. Hopefully the marine layer will weaken that line somewhat as it crosses the Hudson River.

Holding in upper 50s low 60s along the south shore areas of the city. 62 at my station in Sheepshead Bay.

Very dense fog all along the Belt Parkway, go a few blocks north and it's clear.

Down to 61 after a high of 73 here in Sheepshead Bay.

Nice thunder here in Brooklyn at the entrance to the Jackie Robinson Pky.

Very dry outside with the nw flow. Humidity 26% Temp 49 with dew of 16.

Tide already pretty high here along the south shores of Brooklyn and Queens due to the full (super) moon. Should be even higher tonight/tomorrow with the increasing winds until the winds shift to the NW.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0222.html

.78 of rain so far here in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn.

Had 2 inches before the sleet moved in here.

Mayor and Board of Ed should have waited until 5am to make the decision to close the schools. I know, people will say they need to know the night before to make arrangements etc. I remember them making school open/closed decisions all the time in the early mornings.

Sleet mixing in here in Sheepshead Bay

DP of 24 here in Sheepshead Bay

Precip just into W VA, Southern and Western Ohio and racing ENE

Current Temp 40. DP 25. Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

OKX expected snowfall map has Montauk in the 5 inch zone

Temp up to 32 already here in southern Brooklyn