weathermedic

Flakes starting to mix in on 5th Av and E 62 St in Manhattan

Latest OKX AFD: && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NWP guidance in very good agreement on evolution of synoptic scale ingredients for what should be a major winter storm from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A blocking upper high over Greenland will force an extension of the polar vortex to pass to its south and cut off E of the Canadian Maritimes, with confluence to its rear maintaining strong/cold high pressure from Ontario/Quebec into New England from Tue into Wed. Meanwhile, energy just about to move onto the West Coast will dig SE toward the srn Plains where it may cut off briefly, but should maintain a positive to neutral tilt aloft as it moves E of the Mississippi valley on Wed, lessening the chance for warm air to intrude aloft. Primary sfc low pressure should weaken to the W of the Appalachians on Wed while a secondary low forms right along the Carolina coast and then intensifies as it moves to a position off the Delmarva coast late Wed night. Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track. NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45 mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at least near blizzard conditions. Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu, with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W to E through the day.

Dense fog advisories up for much of the area.

10:1 ratios (if that occurs) means that’s 3.3 inches liquid. I would cut those accumulations at least in half or even a little more.

Freezing fog a possibility in rural areas tonight. From OKX AFD: Of particular concern is the potential for freezing fog tonight. As the high shifts offshore, low level moisture will increase, especially for western areas. With temperature dipping below freezing, freezing fog is possible (more likely for the outlying areas of non-metro northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley). However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the development of the fog, therefore, only went with patchy freezing fog.

Same here in southern Brooklyn

1.02 inches of rain here at my station in Sheepshead Bay.

1.60 so far at my station in Sheepshead Bay.

Tornado watch for southern NJ

.42 here

Mostly sleet now here in Bellport Suffolk County. Car thermometer showing 38 degrees.

A few mangled flakes mixing in with the rain on the windshield. On the Southern State Parkway at the Meadowbrook Pky. Edit: sleet as well.

Las Vegas (12 noon local time) OBS: Temp 102/ DP 25/ RH 6/ HI 95. Love that single digit humidity and HI actually lower than the air temperature. Palm Springs the hot spot at 118 Death Valley (Furnace Creek visitors center) "only" 112

That entire line coming into western NJ is severe warned. Let’s see if it can maintain as it heads east

Picked up a quick .35 inches from that cell here in Sheepshead Bay. Almost no wind and very little lightning though

Cell over northern Nassau barely moving. FF warning until 1pm for them.

Looks like a cell popping over extreme northern Brooklyn

Looks pretty much stationary and is expanding in size

Kingsborough College on their Davis sensor gusted to 64 mph. Don't know if it meets official NWS anemometer criteria though. My station (which is shielded by a trees to it's east) gusted to 45 mph, so I am sure they had higher winds in the borough.

Winds not as bad once the sun came out contrary to what others were saying down south

Gusting to 64 mph at the tip of Manhattan Beach Brooklyn

Strong cells developing south of Long Island

I'm checking the Kingsborough College (foot of Jamaica Bay on the eastern end of Manhattan Beach Brooklyn) Davis weather station data and they only have a high gust to 38 mph. Don't know how delayed that is though.

These cells are literally racing nnw at 75-95 mph!