weathermedic

From OKX AFD: Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front late this afternoon into the evening shows. Areas not impacted by the showers earlier in the day could be primed for vigorous convection with the boundary. Elevated CAPE values persist between 1500-2000 J/kg providing enough instability for strong thunderstorms and DCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg hint at strong downdraft gusts. Moreover, the 0-6km shear values around 30-40kts increases the possibility for severe storms. The primary threats remain heavy rain and damaging winds though 0-3 km helicity values 150-200 m^2/s^2 between 21-03Z shows that directional shear will exist within the warm sector of the low. Overall a tornadic threat can not be ruled out particularly over the Lower Hudson Valley. SPC has included much of our northwestern counties within a Slight Risk of severe weather where the severe threat is most likely.

Lots of lightning and very heavy rain here. Rain rate of 8 in/hr. Picked up 1.12 inches so far.

83/78 here

92/74/103 at my station

87/68 with a light westerly breeze at my station at 9:50 pm.

1.10 inches this morning at my station

Looks like a couple of lines of storms/showers trying to form over northeast PA, SE NY and extreme NW NJ

Seeing reports of several downed trees throughout Nassau County

Got 0.83 inches of rain here. Still raining lightly.

87/69 HI 91 at my station as of 10:27am

87/78 HI 100

82/77 HI of 92 here in Sheepshead Bay. Made it up to 91 before the sea breeze kicked in around noon.

...and just like that, temp 89 DP up to 73 as winds more s-se now

91/66 HI 95. Was stuck in the upper 80s but winds have swung around to more w-wsw component so temp rose and dp lowered a bit. I’m about 7 blocks north of the actual bay of Sheepshead Bay.

87/72 HI 93 at my station. Cicada bugs heard here as well.

85/71 already before 10am here.

Flash flood warning for Rockland and Westchester.

83/76 at my station now.....putrid

90/64 at my station. Amazing how much more comfortable 10 degrees off the dew point feels.

2.33 in my bucket

JFK gusted to 45 mph. 2.31 in the bucket IMBY.

1.60 inches at my station so far in Sheepshead Bay.

Looks like the westerly shear has dissipated a bit and the system is getting slightly better organized.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0451 (Issued at 1133 AM EDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ) MPD Selection Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0451 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1133 AM EDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Southern NY Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081533Z - 082133Z Summary...Convection developing late this morning will be capable of producing rain rates 1-2"/hr across eastern PA, northern NJ, and southern NY. Localized flash flooding will be possible. Discussion...Along a higher moisture axis characterized by PWs in the 1.7 to 1.9" range and an instability pool (upwards of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE as of 15Z), scattered convection has developed across portions of eastern PA and southern NY per latest GOES-E IR imagery and radar returns. This activity is developing within weak but persistent warm advection and likely initiating off old outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Through 21Z, the uncapped environment and weak mean flow should allow for continued development of storms with pulse to loosely organized modes driven by cell mergers and boundary interactions that will drift east. After 17Z, the RAP suggests an increase in low level inflow to 25 kts along with increasing CAPE values to above 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This will support higher rain rates that could approach 1.5-2.0"/hr - the 12Z HREF probabilities for exceeding 1" are in the 60-80 percent range and around 20-30 percent for 2"/hr. Through 21Z, total amounts of 2-3" are possible with some isolated amounts 3-4" possible (supported by the 6-hr probs for 3"+ around 40 percent). Antecedent conditions vary across the outlook area with some portions having seen recent heavy rainfall and 7-day preip departures up to 300 percent of normal. The hi-res guidance does favor the drier areas which could limit the flash flood potential, but the intense near-term rain rates would overcome poor drainage, the highly urban corridor, and other low-lying ares and may lead to flash flooding into the afternoon hours. Taylor ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

84/73 RH 70% at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Topped out at 90 before the sea breeze. 0.14 in the bucket from this morning’s convection. 0.51 for the month to date.