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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I think it's looking pretty likely that storm will pass west of NYC. Nam/GFS has it in western NJ. This will put eastern NJ, NYC, LI in the middle of the strongest gusts with a high likelihood of a few spinups. Storm will be moving through at nearly 30mph which will only increase the wind force on the eastern side. I think some 80mph gusts seem probable.
  2. SnoSki14
    Starting to get increasingly concerned this won't just be your run of the mill tropical storm. The combo of that jet and this system is def a concern. We're also seeing the tornado threat play out right now. Imagine if the Ukie & Euro were right with those widespread 70+mph gusts
  3. SnoSki14
    It doesn't look like it's moving that far east to me.
  4. SnoSki14
    I'd be shocked if we didn't see some hurricane force gusts. This storm has been big on winds from the start. The winds on the east side of an accelerating tropical system can be quite powerful.
  5. SnoSki14
    I don't think so, the new NHC advisory discussion was pretty concerning regarding wind gusts. This is a well mixed atmosphere.
  6. SnoSki14
    I'm always skeptical when it comes to tropical systems so I get your point. Whatever happens will be over a short period of time, hopefully this tracks further west so we could see some stronger winds. If this is shooting up 25-30mph there's bound to be some very strong gusts on the eastern side. Tornado threat exists as well. Don't really think this is a rain threat for us so I'm not overly concerned about flooding.
  7. SnoSki14
    It should reintensify when it finally turns NNE in the direction of the shear vector. This will commence shortly as the jet is strongly pushing up against him now.
  8. SnoSki14
    You know it's been bad when a dew below 70 is an accomplishment.
  9. SnoSki14
    Models ramping him up post landfall is pretty concerning given we'll likely be on its eastern side.
  10. SnoSki14
    Models pretty adamant that this gets a burst of energy once it's shooting up the coast, must be that anomalous jet streak. Wouldn't be surprised to see it trend stronger as it comes north, even if it's just inland.
  11. SnoSki14
    This has an equally good chance of plowing into SE FL with tropical remnants spreading north. In fact I think it'll be the likely scenario if it stays this disorganized into tomorrow.
  12. SnoSki14
    It could also impact Florida as a TS though that still seems unlikely. I think it'll hit eastern NC as a TS or weak hurricane and trek either just inland or offshore until it hits LI. Huge uncertainty regarding intensity though upper air pattern looks mostly unfavorable until it recurves n/nne.
  13. SnoSki14
    Well that was fun. What a light show, it was even better than last time.
  14. SnoSki14
    GFS looking more ominous. That's a decent hurricane impacting LI.
  15. SnoSki14
    This should be interesting. We've already had a TS so I guess there's some precedent for another one. Models are all over the place when it comes to intensity though.
  16. SnoSki14
    In a decade or so we'll probably have some legit home grown TS or even hurricanes nearby. A July TS like Fay for us was highly unusual.
  17. SnoSki14
    Not even close to triple digits today and likely for the rest of summer. Pattern moving forward will feature troughiness in the Midwest and warm/wet conditions for us. This could even limit 90s as we head into August.
  18. SnoSki14
    I don't think anyone will see 100F but it'll be close (97-98?).
  19. SnoSki14
    The early next week heat will probably be the strongest heat of the season. I don't see it getting hotter than that in August. August could be more warm/humid than near record hot. Lots of tropical activity lurking too.
  20. SnoSki14
    Amazing light show
  21. SnoSki14
    We could be in the top 3-5 warmest after early next week's heat. Looks like a string of 95-100F days looks likely.
  22. SnoSki14
    Main stuff was a few miles to my N&W. Very meh today but I'm glad some got a good show.
  23. SnoSki14
    They'll probably be a big uptick from all the heat recently going into next week.
  24. SnoSki14
    If we can avoid any rains next couple days then 100F will be a possibility early next week. Really intense surge of heat on Euro, looks even stronger than current surge.
  25. SnoSki14
    A lot of those early storms have mostly non-tropical origins which is why they never get really strong. I think the May/June early developments and late June through mid August lull will be a common occurrence going forward. Getting lemons right now in the tropics (MDR region) is good sign that things are becoming more favorable though. We'll probably see the real meat of the season start a couple weeks earlier this year.
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