Cobalt

Pretty bold of you to use your one allotted daily post on that.

hmm.. SS energy is a bit more held back at hr 102 for the GFS compared to 18z.. might give it a bit more of a chance to separate from the northern stream energy Slightly healthier press of cold air as well..

I've heard the St. Louis subforum is bustling this time of year.

The trend so far this January has been for the NS to be modeled as faster when closing in range.. reel this one in!

Probably still a bit far west, gotta throw in a Dec 2010 for good measure

Definitely showing up more on the 12z EPS compared to recent runs.

Actually, the GFS seemed to be the best fit model for Jan 3rd. I was under the belief that this was due to the model's handling of the northern stream, modelling that piece of energy to be faster than any other guidance, which caused it to get out of the way faster and allow the SS shortwave to amplify. Someone can correct me on this, but I do definitely remember that it was showing glimpses of decent hits at ~60-72hrs out, but upped the ante with other guidance following suit shortly after.

Negative teens into PA Friday morning (on the mean, which should have its cold be even more muted). Couldn't ask for a better airmass.

Mhm, would probably give us some more wiggle room if it meets in the middle with the GFS/Canadian Also, that HP strength and positioning looks even better compared to 12z. Real stout one over top

Just a tiny difference..

A septuple phased system might be so amped that it loops around the globe a full time.. would still clip NW Virginia though

Hmmm...

The differences in h5 are already incredibly apparent at hr 84. Check out GFS vs Euro for that timeframe. Those differences amplify very quickly afterwards

While that is inflated due to Kuchera, precip is pretty hefty too. If this falls in the low 20s with 850s well below freezing as depicted? Could definitely see ratios better than 10:1.

2.6" as of 5:45pm, right before sleet took over. All in all the storm definitely met expectations with several hours of SN/SN+. Feels like it's been ages since we've had a cold temps Colorado powder type event, and this definitely delivered. Oh, and that makes 12.9" of snow so far on the winter. Snowiest through Jan 16th since.. 09/10

1.0” as of 4pm. This marks the earliest that this location has had three separate 1” snow events since the 2013/2014 winter. Impressive stretch around these parts. .

0.6" as of 3:30. Nothing like watching cold powder fall at home with some bad football alongside it.

6 years to the day...

Looks pretty enticing. NAO goes from - to + during this timeframe, so there's decent HA storm signal. Would probably also help offset how far east the trough is. Ensembles should be fun.

Euro looking to do something similar near hr 150.

I think I mentioned 12/16/20 as having stark similarities, but this really reminded me of the 2016 President's Day storm I'll do my best to find sfc/upper level maps from that storm, but it was a similar situation. On Feb 14th it was 25/13 at DCA! We hardly can even manage that high temp for a low nowadays. It didn't matter though, as the track and screaming SE winds eroded what little cold remained, all the way up to upstate NY. Temps spiked to 53 at DCA on the 16th. As for that random small snow max south of DCA, I don't fully remember. One thing I've noticed about these WAA dependent events is that they tend to max on an unsuspecting area, depending on the onset of precip. Whatever max this produces will likely be oriented to the west and be wayyy different, but it's an interesting anecdote, these events tend to be full of surprises.

GEFS is holding onto that signal as well. Still showing up a bit on the OP runs, like with what the Canadian tried to do at hr 180. Pretty suppressive look up top, but as we learned with this recent system, that can easily change.

18z GFS tries to do something akin to the D7 storm the Canadian has One door closes, another opens..