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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    And even then.. it lined up with a pretty significant snow event for the central/southern parts of our subforum. The Jan 3rd event was -AO/-NAO, and all it took was the PAC puke to relax a bit for that event to be possible.
  2. Cobalt
    Timing certainly can't hurt at least.. would be somewhat uncharacteristic to go this far into the winter without an elevation dependent forum divider, but that's just my hunch.
  3. Cobalt
    One thing I'm looking out for is if the Atlantic becomes more favorable late into Feb. Past Ninas had that as a turning point, recently with March 2017 and 2018. Those didn't take a favorable PAC state to produce good snowfall in parts of the subforum.
  4. Cobalt
    Hold on, we got conflicting information here I believe Staten Island Chuck's protocol is different. Must've seen 6 more weeks of -PNA...
  5. Cobalt
    Re: @clskinsfanin the closed Med Range thread saying "I liked the long range look from a couple of days ago a little better with higher heights poking into Greenland" The 12z GEFS might strike your fancy. It's been showing up a lot at this range on the OP runs, so it's nice to see the ensembles hinting at it too.
  6. Cobalt
    Pretty ugly looking CAD signal showing up for that too.
  7. Cobalt
    Not sure I follow. The only Januaries I can see topping it are Jan 2016, Jan 2014, and maybe Jan 2011? That's still an above average month, if not top 4 or 3. It feels like we've lost our bread and butter Januaries as of late. They've either produced prolonged unproductive periods or plain old thaws. After our last 60 degree day this one was off to the races. I prepped up my own snow drought thread in anticipation for this year to be yet another entry in the list, but so far it's proven that it isn't a typical -PDO La Nina. If we don't get our February torch.. then that's yet another theme this winter goes against.
  8. Cobalt
    11", all from January alone? That may very well be your 2nd or 3rd best January in the past decade. We still have ~60 days left where it can snow, so take a bit of a breather. In a land of sucky winters, a slightly below average winter is king. I think that's how the saying goes?
  9. Cobalt
    Looks like 129 is the changeover panel, 850s are below freezing for points near and slightly SE of DC then. Surface temps in the mid 20s.
  10. Cobalt
    Sidewalks beginning to cave, 30 degrees with moderate snow atm
  11. Cobalt
    Light snow in Harrisonburg. There's still decent snowpack from the event two weeks ago, which is pretty impressive.
  12. Cobalt
    3k NAM
  13. Cobalt
    Here's a bit more detailed version of that UKMET map. For reference, 12z had 0" QPF for DC and points north.
  14. Cobalt
    America hasn't won a war since 1945.. feeling pretty confident that the GFS folds here.
  15. Cobalt
  16. Cobalt
    RGEM looks like .4" QPF through DCA. 18z was just barely 0.1", so I would say that is a definite improvement.
  17. Cobalt
    The LP goes due east right after that panel.. it's quite the ensemble member :p
  18. Cobalt
    Def looks to have improved for folks East of I-95 compared to 12z. Our snow attributed to the NS feature looks somewhat similar, if not a bit lighter. Hoping the mesos give us clarity on that soon.
  19. Cobalt
  20. Cobalt
    Early on with the 18z Euro.. it looks like our Four Corners shortwave has stopped bleeding west, at least compared to 12z. Probably won't have much significance, but at least it's something.
  21. Cobalt
    I recall him being a bit pessimistic for Jan 3rd though
  22. Cobalt
    hmmm
  23. Cobalt
  24. Cobalt
  25. Cobalt
    I've definitely seen worse.. it's interesting that the ensembles are once again diverging from the OP at this range, much like last week's storm.
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