Cobalt

I think I mentioned 12/16/20 as having stark similarities, but this really reminded me of the 2016 President's Day storm I'll do my best to find sfc/upper level maps from that storm, but it was a similar situation. On Feb 14th it was 25/13 at DCA! We hardly can even manage that high temp for a low nowadays. It didn't matter though, as the track and screaming SE winds eroded what little cold remained, all the way up to upstate NY. Temps spiked to 53 at DCA on the 16th. As for that random small snow max south of DCA, I don't fully remember. One thing I've noticed about these WAA dependent events is that they tend to max on an unsuspecting area, depending on the onset of precip. Whatever max this produces will likely be oriented to the west and be wayyy different, but it's an interesting anecdote, these events tend to be full of surprises.

GEFS is holding onto that signal as well. Still showing up a bit on the OP runs, like with what the Canadian tried to do at hr 180. Pretty suppressive look up top, but as we learned with this recent system, that can easily change.

18z GFS tries to do something akin to the D7 storm the Canadian has One door closes, another opens..

The 2016 President's day storm might be a better analog in this situation. That was a truly arctic airmass going into it.. but the cold air was scoured away incredibly quickly with a rather intrusive LP track. Single digits to 50s in just a day.

It did make a baby step towards what the Canadian is trying to hint at for our D7 storm. Had a weak LP system bringing light snow to costal SC. Kinda reminiscent for what this weekend's system showed at the same timeframe, but man that is some brutal cold pressing down during the same timeframe. Negatives for the far western burbs.

Posted this for the Jan 3rd storm. This typically seems to be the bias, let's see how it holds up once the storm enters the 48hr HRRR run range.

Wraparound precip from the 12z Euro

Our cold air source is wrecked by the lakes low, but it definitely was a step to something more interesting (edit: more like a leap). Hoping ensembles pick up on it a bit.

850s seem to be subfreezing for the entirety of this panel. Definitely something to watch once the mesos get into range.

Yeah.. it ticked people off considering that it is just now catching on to the warm nose

Here's precip through 0z Monday And 850s at that timeframe. Still holding on

Will the 22F DCA saga finally come to an end with this?

Regardless of what falls, it looks like it'll be a precip bomb. This is a pretty juicy 1hr panel as depicted on the Euro Here's 850s at the end of that timeframe. Should be pretty interesting once mesos get into range.

That was definitely an exciting/volatile storm. There's two differences that stick out to me, with one being that the 850 low was a fair bit west compared to this storm IIRC. At the same time though, the HP wasn't departing as fast, and it was a pretty serviceable airmass given the time of year.

To me, this setup seems pretty reminiscent of 12/16/20, just displaced a bit to the south at the start. We scoffed at the unconventional track that guidance was showing (and I believe the low did track SE of where it was progged), but it became clear that the ULL being vaulted to the north would definitely scour any cold that was present, regardless of if the LP track was "typical" or not.

Already outdated information, appears to be 10:52am for me.

While we've been fixated on the day 4/5 threat, the following threat has began to make its way onto ensemble guidance. Looks like a viable setup to me Following that.. it looks like we go into the icebox. There is unanimous agreement among each ensemble suite, and the EPS stepped it up a notch with the 12z run. This mean is probably amplified due to the ensemble members holding onto snowpack, but it's.. quite the signal. For 12+ days out I don't think I've seen this sort of consensus before.

Wxbell is being really weird with revealing panels but it looks like 850s give way near 141, definitely a crusher before that though

That's a strong HP overtop at least.. I'd take my chances with a 1040hp as depicted by the GFS thru hr 100.

Definitely a NW lean on 6z compared to 0z.

For sure, kinda as if it replaced the GEFS for their respective 6z runs. Pretty acceptable lp mean given time to improve

Looks way more similar to Feb 2014

Pretty healthy CAD signature going into it, it certainly can't hurt that one of our coldest airmasses so far is coinciding with this event

Canadian ensembles agree with the OP. A bit south at the moment, but an impressive precip and snow mean to boot.

P18 is having a party.. that belongs in the digital snow thread.. its kinda absurd lol not for our area ofc but still the wildest output I've seen for a given ensemble member within 100hrs, needs no further discussion ig