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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Hold on, we got conflicting information here I believe Staten Island Chuck's protocol is different. Must've seen 6 more weeks of -PNA...
  2. Cobalt
    Re: @clskinsfanin the closed Med Range thread saying "I liked the long range look from a couple of days ago a little better with higher heights poking into Greenland" The 12z GEFS might strike your fancy. It's been showing up a lot at this range on the OP runs, so it's nice to see the ensembles hinting at it too.
  3. Cobalt
    Pretty ugly looking CAD signal showing up for that too.
  4. Cobalt
    Not sure I follow. The only Januaries I can see topping it are Jan 2016, Jan 2014, and maybe Jan 2011? That's still an above average month, if not top 4 or 3. It feels like we've lost our bread and butter Januaries as of late. They've either produced prolonged unproductive periods or plain old thaws. After our last 60 degree day this one was off to the races. I prepped up my own snow drought thread in anticipation for this year to be yet another entry in the list, but so far it's proven that it isn't a typical -PDO La Nina. If we don't get our February torch.. then that's yet another theme this winter goes against.
  5. Cobalt
    11", all from January alone? That may very well be your 2nd or 3rd best January in the past decade. We still have ~60 days left where it can snow, so take a bit of a breather. In a land of sucky winters, a slightly below average winter is king. I think that's how the saying goes?
  6. Cobalt
    Looks like 129 is the changeover panel, 850s are below freezing for points near and slightly SE of DC then. Surface temps in the mid 20s.
  7. Cobalt
    Sidewalks beginning to cave, 30 degrees with moderate snow atm
  8. Cobalt
    Light snow in Harrisonburg. There's still decent snowpack from the event two weeks ago, which is pretty impressive.
  9. Cobalt
    3k NAM
  10. Cobalt
    Here's a bit more detailed version of that UKMET map. For reference, 12z had 0" QPF for DC and points north.
  11. Cobalt
    America hasn't won a war since 1945.. feeling pretty confident that the GFS folds here.
  12. Cobalt
  13. Cobalt
    RGEM looks like .4" QPF through DCA. 18z was just barely 0.1", so I would say that is a definite improvement.
  14. Cobalt
    The LP goes due east right after that panel.. it's quite the ensemble member :p
  15. Cobalt
    Def looks to have improved for folks East of I-95 compared to 12z. Our snow attributed to the NS feature looks somewhat similar, if not a bit lighter. Hoping the mesos give us clarity on that soon.
  16. Cobalt
  17. Cobalt
    Early on with the 18z Euro.. it looks like our Four Corners shortwave has stopped bleeding west, at least compared to 12z. Probably won't have much significance, but at least it's something.
  18. Cobalt
    I recall him being a bit pessimistic for Jan 3rd though
  19. Cobalt
    hmmm
  20. Cobalt
  21. Cobalt
  22. Cobalt
    I've definitely seen worse.. it's interesting that the ensembles are once again diverging from the OP at this range, much like last week's storm.
  23. Cobalt
    Central Tim is only here to spend his Saturday night looking for reactions. Block, simple as that.
  24. Cobalt
    FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern.
  25. Cobalt
    Knickerbockerish
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