Cobalt

How ya feelin about next winter?

I mean.. we did have that one wet paste storm this time last year. Was impressive for some areas but ofc for most what little snow fell melted by midday.

If it makes you feel any better, it looks like the Canadian fringes you in an opposite direction by vaulting the initial precip well NW https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

story of your post quality too

Very light snow in Harrisonburg while walking to class. Nice ambience

Moderate rain showers, actually.

Trough goes negative a bit too late for us but still a pretty decent hit. Pretty interesting h5 setup

And even then.. it lined up with a pretty significant snow event for the central/southern parts of our subforum. The Jan 3rd event was -AO/-NAO, and all it took was the PAC puke to relax a bit for that event to be possible.

Timing certainly can't hurt at least.. would be somewhat uncharacteristic to go this far into the winter without an elevation dependent forum divider, but that's just my hunch.

One thing I'm looking out for is if the Atlantic becomes more favorable late into Feb. Past Ninas had that as a turning point, recently with March 2017 and 2018. Those didn't take a favorable PAC state to produce good snowfall in parts of the subforum.

Hold on, we got conflicting information here I believe Staten Island Chuck's protocol is different. Must've seen 6 more weeks of -PNA...

Re: @clskinsfanin the closed Med Range thread saying "I liked the long range look from a couple of days ago a little better with higher heights poking into Greenland" The 12z GEFS might strike your fancy. It's been showing up a lot at this range on the OP runs, so it's nice to see the ensembles hinting at it too.

Pretty ugly looking CAD signal showing up for that too.

Not sure I follow. The only Januaries I can see topping it are Jan 2016, Jan 2014, and maybe Jan 2011? That's still an above average month, if not top 4 or 3. It feels like we've lost our bread and butter Januaries as of late. They've either produced prolonged unproductive periods or plain old thaws. After our last 60 degree day this one was off to the races. I prepped up my own snow drought thread in anticipation for this year to be yet another entry in the list, but so far it's proven that it isn't a typical -PDO La Nina. If we don't get our February torch.. then that's yet another theme this winter goes against.

11", all from January alone? That may very well be your 2nd or 3rd best January in the past decade. We still have ~60 days left where it can snow, so take a bit of a breather. In a land of sucky winters, a slightly below average winter is king. I think that's how the saying goes?

Looks like 129 is the changeover panel, 850s are below freezing for points near and slightly SE of DC then. Surface temps in the mid 20s.

Sidewalks beginning to cave, 30 degrees with moderate snow atm

Light snow in Harrisonburg. There's still decent snowpack from the event two weeks ago, which is pretty impressive.

3k NAM

Here's a bit more detailed version of that UKMET map. For reference, 12z had 0" QPF for DC and points north.

America hasn't won a war since 1945.. feeling pretty confident that the GFS folds here.

RGEM looks like .4" QPF through DCA. 18z was just barely 0.1", so I would say that is a definite improvement.

The LP goes due east right after that panel.. it's quite the ensemble member :p