Cobalt

There's a whole laundry list of "winter's over" posts from December-January by all of the usual suspects. We know they'll make similar calls this next winter or the next and will be spot on, but it's not exactly bold to be in the warm & snowless camp when that feels like an increasing majority of our winters. It's like going all in on bonds and saying I told you so when they return 4% after a year lol

I'm more-so in awe at the bold call at play. So you don't think the anafront snow will stick in mid 30s daytime March temperatures following an 85 degree day? Simply brazen prediction.

You only stop by this subforum when there's bad news to dump on our heads so you haven't had a chance to look around and realize that the vast majority of us are in Spring mode. We're semi-checked out. Every single one of us knows those maps won't verify. So why post them? Because it's fun. Because it passes the time until tomorrow when non-accumulating slush balls fall out of the sky. Nobody is attaching the enjoyment of their Thursday and beyond to if the GFS is correctly predicting the biggest March storm in a decade. And almost certainly, nobody here was waiting for the guy who predicted torch Winter 25-26 to tell us the GFS might be a bit off with its snowfall amounts.

It took me 2 minutes to backread and find a post that you should've been five-posted for. Don't come around here talking about dwindling snow prospects when you're batting .150 at a time when it is BY FAR THE EASIEST to predict warm snowless winters and be right. Nobody's gonna call you an oracle when you're saying snow won't stick the day after it hits 85 degrees.

Yeah, I agree. What’s the RGEM show??

The audacity of "Weather Decision Solutions" trying to plop their copyright onto an AI-Generated graphic is laughable.

Back to back posts. Just lol

The one time I need DCA to put up a pitiful early March daytime measurement..

Guaranteeing something that will probably happen

Coldest winter since 2002-03, and likewise with the coldest period since August 1st.

Very surprised at these record lows coming at the tail end of two absolutely torcherrific months.

Wow.

The icing on the cake is that the GFS hasn’t shown precip in that area for the past 3 runs. It decided to give up right as it was at the finish line

There's gotta be a new term for this. Slant sticking is when you're salty about your own snow measurements so you inflate your own totals. What do you call it when you're salty about your own snow measurements so you go out and deflate other people's snow totals?

Occam's razor. Either 50+ trained spotters with corroborating radar history + liquid equivalent measurements + hundreds of non-trained measurers were completely off their rockers and ALL mismeasured by half the storm's total or greater, or.. one emotionally-charged postered missed out on the best banding, and got salty about it?

Okay you got me, and all of the shadow measurers who've co-conspired to fake the snowfall totals all across SNE, working in collaboration with Big Accordion to get you so frustrated with this hobby that you go out and impulse buy 10 Pigini Mythos accordions to fix the snow drift-sized hole in your heart. You've busted us, just like your snow forecast busted. The jig is up. You happy now?

Seems like temps are the main bust more than anything on the GFS' part. Saw those gnarly high radar returns up in Maryland and figured it was melting aloft but I checked the temperatures and Brunswick MD is 47F lol

The self-listing of accolades under the Youtube bio tells the whole story by the way, those 4 "TED Talks" are a subset called TedX talks. Basically anyone can apply for one of those so long as they have an interesting story, no accolades or anything required. Someone could probably do one on the ups and downs of being on this board lmao

because it's rain?

In an attempt to break the cycle of nostalgia posting (which I am very guilty of..), the 12z AI GFS looks interesting for that early March window. 2-wave system, looks like it drops 0.6-1" QPF over the course of both of those waves. Subfreezing the whole time, though no idea about 850s.

Basically every other modern A+ winter illustrates how rare 09-10 was. 95-96's 2nd biggest snowfall at DCA was 8.4". In 02-03 it was 6.6". In 13-14 it was 7.0". In 09-10.. A snowfall of 10.8 inches was the 3rd largest snowfall of the winter.

The Feb 5-6 and 9-10 storms being back to back is simply mythological, it's astounding that any sort of pattern could enable 2 big dog storms not even 4 full days apart at our latitude. That being on top of an almost as-rare December HECS and the already regionwide 28"+ winter totals is the stuff of weenie lore. I don't care if we get a winter that rivals 13-14 in totals but with snowpack on the ground from December to St. Patrick's Day. If it doesn't have at least 3 big dog storms, it's not topping 09-10.

One inch for every snowman, how poetic.

I would imagine that, so long as we don't get a Super Nino, the prospect of any Nino raises the floor of winter at least? At least in the event of a warm winter. At DCA for instance, 40F+ winter average and La Nina are a no-go combo, the last 5 such cases averaged 4.4" of snow. 40F+ El Ninos are a different story, 2 of the last 3 exceeded climo, with 23-24 being the odd one out, though its snow total is pretty comparable to this year's despite being 8 degrees warmer lol. Again that's all in hoping that a Super Nino doesn't come in and wreck everything, anything weaker and it seems like we at least won't get nothingburgered.

Pretty sure he just got an AI to modify the Jan 2016 blizzard map. Dont blame him, blame the machines. They’re gonna vex your locale and turn the snow drifts to puddles