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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    This is the thing forky is deliberately forgetting. 2023-24 averaged 0.7F warmer (DCA) compared to 97-98, and had 8" of snowfall. 15-16 was only 0.5F colder than 97-98. Likewise, 72-73 was 3F colder than that winter, but was also a shutout. A Super Nino can overwhelm the base state with torcherrific airmasses for 90% of the winter, but it very evidently does its best to load the deck in the few intervals that temperatures are remotely seasonable.
  2. Cobalt
    what's this site?
  3. Cobalt
    What've you got for the individual months DJF?
  4. Cobalt
    Unless im misreading, that row's title says "typical Anak Krakatau Output", as in likely just averaging out its emissions over time. Doesn't look like there's estimated figures on 2026's eruption just yet
  5. Cobalt
    you need a graphic designer this upcoming winter?
  6. Cobalt
    this table says 2018? In any case, I saw a report that concluded Anak Krakatau's recent eruption plume went only 13% the height of Pinatubo, so likely talking about a substantially smaller impact if that figure is correct.
  7. Cobalt
    Definitely, though I do recall the Euro seasonal painting a similar picture for 23-24. That feels like the only strong nino in recent memory where we somehow split down the middle and got a "mediocre" season versus either an all-out torchfest or a big snower.
  8. Cobalt
    the AI envisions a winter where after an early season 2" snowfall we get a -2 inch event to bring the total back down. Same thing at the end of the season lmao
  9. Cobalt
    It definitely didn't do it right. Take a note of the color code, several 12"+ winters appear in the 0-10 row. Likewise several 5 inch winters intruded into both the 10-20" and 20"+ sections, and the lack of any 30"+ totals in the "delicious" column shows that it's obviously erroneous
  10. Cobalt
    Well yeah, because your generation won't be the one to see the worst consequences of such a temperature jump.
  11. Cobalt
    Normally waxing and waning isn't at a rate of 1C in 50 years. 5C was all the difference between glaciers over NYC and modern climo, and that took thousands of years. Not out of the question that we clear a similar gap within the next 100 years.
  12. Cobalt
    hmmmm
  13. Cobalt
    almost that time of year. GEFS is hinting at a pattern favorable for early season snow cover advance, but time will tell on that.
  14. Cobalt
    This map isn't accurate, the AI model the CanSIPS was fed into has no basis to forecast snowfall as it's just an image model tool (all it knows is the images it was trained on). Here's an accurate version. https://x.com/wallcloud/status/2094933250602893475
  15. Cobalt
    i didnt know that the world was getting warmer and that cold winters were becoming less likely until forky started bump trolling people in the 2026-2027 el nino thread talking about it
  16. Cobalt
  17. Cobalt
  18. Cobalt
    DCA Christmas day temps during past strong Nino events 1972.. 48hi 42lo 1982.. 70hi 48lo 1997.. 49hi 40lo 2015.. 69hi 57lo 2023.. 61hi 40lo Seems like there's unfortunately much greater odds of our region flirting with 60F+ temps than getting close to freezing (DCA climo for the day is 47hi 33lo)
  19. Cobalt
    You say that amwx currently is a denier board but from flipping back it looks like denialism used to be a much greater issue here. Now the worst we’ve got is one dude thinking his county deserves an entire thread and a smattering of New England posters who quickly get shut down with actual info. Progress!
  20. Cobalt
    pepperidge farm remembers
  21. Cobalt
    All this chat for 1 out of 3,144 counties btw
  22. Cobalt
    Yeah, the cold was definitely legitimate in the East. NYC for example had a 16 day stretch during effectively peak winter that ranked top 3 coldest, and I believe it was don who also noted that the same site had its coldest La Nina February in 90 years. Impressive metrics in a warming climate.
  23. Cobalt
    I see. Well I appreciate you not adhering to a cookie cutter forecast and applying nuance to this upcoming winter. It's telling that the same people who are excited about the prospect of a warm winter simply because of the reaction of this board were also the ones who went warm for 24-25 and 25-26.
  24. Cobalt
    much appreciation for continuing the art of creating fictional storms in a photo editing software rather than using AI #realweenie
  25. Cobalt
    You’re attacking someone on the same team as you PhiEaglesfan is always on the warm and snowless train, are you new here?
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