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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Lol the NAM's gonna put down 2.0" QPF+ at BWI.. 1.5" at DCA
  2. Cobalt
    That's 0z lol
  3. Cobalt
    lol the HRRR has precip in the vicinity of the DC area from hour 15-48 (and counting)
  4. Cobalt
    got room for one more?
  5. Cobalt
    Best run since 6z, insane that the GFS keeps lobbing up these solutions. AI GFS improved also
  6. Cobalt
    Icon EPS is 0.9" QPF for DC. Substantial shift west from 18z. Some pretty tucked members in the mix.
  7. Cobalt
    To calm PSU's nerves hopefully.. Every model but the Euro (naturally, since it has yet to run at 0z) places the IVT West of DC. We can all rest easy.
  8. Cobalt
    Add the ICON to that list.. really just the RGEM and Euro need to display that configuration for the GFS to have nailed that synoptic setup well in advance.
  9. Cobalt
    That looks like the footprint of the IVT? Before today's NAM runs the only model pulling it that far west was the GFS. The other guidance joining in on that would be its ultimate victory.
  10. Cobalt
    A lot of that comes down to the initial advance of precip before the coastal takes over. Few of the other models are giving that much of a thought, and from the looks of it the HRRR is actually wetter with that batch than even the GFS.
  11. Cobalt
    Orange'd before the 0z suite comes in
  12. Cobalt
    He's the CEO of an umbrella manufacturing company.. he's covered
  13. Cobalt
    AI EPS has 1.0 QPF for DC
  14. Cobalt
    Yes, though that doesn't explain it being substantially wetter than most of the other guidance alongside its snow depiction. In fact, in recent storms outside of Jan '22, the GEFS is seemingly more often than not further south with its precip extent.
  15. Cobalt
    This was showing up in the CIPS analogs yesterday. Alongside it were March 2013, Jan 1987, March 2018 (the one which clipped the Eastern Shore and jumped to Boston), along with a few misses.
  16. Cobalt
    AI GFS is a tick back - 0.9" QPF for DC
  17. Cobalt
    lol it's 70 degrees here. If 10 degrees means blizzard for North Carolina, and 70 means blizzard for the Eastern Shore.. looks like I've gotta be 105F leading in?
  18. Cobalt
    precip is also substantially lighter when compared to 12k NAM, which probably explains the discrepancy in temperatures.
  19. Cobalt
    hr 57 is a mauling for the Eastern Shore.. very solid for DC proper also, 0.3" QPF in 3 hours.
  20. Cobalt
    AI EPS much wetter than 6z, 0.9" QPF at DC compared to 0.6".
  21. Cobalt
    The GFS is an evil entity. There are little men in the machine who read our every post and adjust the forecast accordingly to incite maximum pain and suffering. That machine and its ensemble are menaces and are not to be trusted. Can't wait for the Euro.
  22. Cobalt
    Yep. That AI Euro shift from 12z to 18z was incredibly encouraging, and very uncharacteristic of its small run-to-run shifts. the AI GFS shifting west for 0z gives me some hope that trend will continue.
  23. Cobalt
    yeah, I just saw the source. No harm done then on his part, just a good idea to exercise critical thinking. I guess it's a new animal being able to generate fake snowstorm models now.
  24. Cobalt
    If he saw it off of social media and perceived it to be real that's one thing, and is in some way understandable. Much more different than if he generated it himself to deceive.
  25. Cobalt
    AI GFS is a slight improvement compared to 18z. 0.7" QPF at DCA, more to the Southeast.
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