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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    AI EPS has 1.0 QPF for DC
  2. Cobalt
    Yes, though that doesn't explain it being substantially wetter than most of the other guidance alongside its snow depiction. In fact, in recent storms outside of Jan '22, the GEFS is seemingly more often than not further south with its precip extent.
  3. Cobalt
    This was showing up in the CIPS analogs yesterday. Alongside it were March 2013, Jan 1987, March 2018 (the one which clipped the Eastern Shore and jumped to Boston), along with a few misses.
  4. Cobalt
    AI GFS is a tick back - 0.9" QPF for DC
  5. Cobalt
    lol it's 70 degrees here. If 10 degrees means blizzard for North Carolina, and 70 means blizzard for the Eastern Shore.. looks like I've gotta be 105F leading in?
  6. Cobalt
    precip is also substantially lighter when compared to 12k NAM, which probably explains the discrepancy in temperatures.
  7. Cobalt
    hr 57 is a mauling for the Eastern Shore.. very solid for DC proper also, 0.3" QPF in 3 hours.
  8. Cobalt
    AI EPS much wetter than 6z, 0.9" QPF at DC compared to 0.6".
  9. Cobalt
    The GFS is an evil entity. There are little men in the machine who read our every post and adjust the forecast accordingly to incite maximum pain and suffering. That machine and its ensemble are menaces and are not to be trusted. Can't wait for the Euro.
  10. Cobalt
    Yep. That AI Euro shift from 12z to 18z was incredibly encouraging, and very uncharacteristic of its small run-to-run shifts. the AI GFS shifting west for 0z gives me some hope that trend will continue.
  11. Cobalt
    yeah, I just saw the source. No harm done then on his part, just a good idea to exercise critical thinking. I guess it's a new animal being able to generate fake snowstorm models now.
  12. Cobalt
    If he saw it off of social media and perceived it to be real that's one thing, and is in some way understandable. Much more different than if he generated it himself to deceive.
  13. Cobalt
    AI GFS is a slight improvement compared to 18z. 0.7" QPF at DCA, more to the Southeast.
  14. Cobalt
  15. Cobalt
    Hey, I think AI generating seemingly legit model outputs is crossing the line, but that's just my opinion. If anyone is wondering how this might be AI, look at the color table off to the right.
  16. Cobalt
    These weather models we have at our disposal are an excellent storyteller. It's almost like they knew they couldn't fully cave one way or another at 18z and had to have us on deck for this 0z suite.
  17. Cobalt
    Dare I say that the 3k NAM looks better than the 12k at hr 60? Of course it cuts off there so it leaves a lot to be imagined.
  18. Cobalt
    I wish I was out here when that event happened. Was the sloppiest 3 inches of snow back home outside of DC. Was my first big track and I stepped outside in it and was like noooope. My dad got me SimCity that day though, that was a good highlight.
  19. Cobalt
    Based on the 12z GFS so grain of salt but CIPS analogs are compelling. A few biggies mixed in with some northeast hits. Also lol at #1
  20. Cobalt
    comical run-to-run difference. We'd have to hope it has a similar shift in store at 0z...
  21. Cobalt
    Pretty nice change on the AI Euro..
  22. Cobalt
    My main fear with that is that he's got the late comedian in mind instead of the meteorologist
  23. Cobalt
    IVT had to make room for that 9 inch precip max lmao
  24. Cobalt
    Precip looks slightly lighter which is odd, but overall precip axis is further west than 12z, and h5 look is better. Seems like 0.7” QPF at DC?
  25. Cobalt
    The paradoxical model, capable of being better than itself
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