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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    It didn't even hold for 12 hours, I was looking at 0z by accident though the ensembles are pretty consistently underdoing cold into the medium range still. Incredibly persistent bias this winter.
  2. Cobalt
    This aged almost as badly as your call saying there'd be no storm.
  3. Cobalt
    I for one believe in the 100 hours of subfreezing temperatures + snowstorm that the Euro shows for our region at the end of the run.. going into the second week of March. That'll happen.
  4. Cobalt
    Wow, the snowiest guidance was wrong? What other newfound wisdom will you bestow upon us today?
  5. Cobalt
    Dang, was banking on BWI getting into the Western edge of a late-developing storm like they did in March 2018. Yesterday was the chance, but the window just passed.
  6. Cobalt
    Already surpassed yesterday’s 6z RGEM that @snowman19 had as his pick for the model that represented the most likely outcome. Speaking of which.. where is snowman? Enjoying the storm, I hope
  7. Cobalt
    The two will merge and usher in the new ice age, Day After Tomorrow style
  8. Cobalt
    Branches breaking due to wet nature of the snow according to my folks in McLean
  9. Cobalt
    BWI literally got 6.3 inches of snow nearly 11 years to the day - Feb 21st, 2015. Your superstitious view on late February warning-level snow is really just a byproduct of the fact that warning level snow at any time of winter is incredibly rare, but it also just isn't true.
  10. Cobalt
    Can confirm, went from light rain to sizeable snowflakes in the past 10 minutes.
  11. Cobalt
    He didn’t put work into it, it’s AI generated. If not the contours, then at the very least the base map is entirely AI.
  12. Cobalt
    The second this storm ends he'll be back in the La Nina thread. That or forecasting a Super El Nino next year. Book it
  13. Cobalt
    Y'all are gonna get walloped. Enjoy! Make a snowman.. or 19 of them.
  14. Cobalt
    Lol the NAM's gonna put down 2.0" QPF+ at BWI.. 1.5" at DCA
  15. Cobalt
    That's 0z lol
  16. Cobalt
    lol the HRRR has precip in the vicinity of the DC area from hour 15-48 (and counting)
  17. Cobalt
    got room for one more?
  18. Cobalt
    Best run since 6z, insane that the GFS keeps lobbing up these solutions. AI GFS improved also
  19. Cobalt
    Icon EPS is 0.9" QPF for DC. Substantial shift west from 18z. Some pretty tucked members in the mix.
  20. Cobalt
    To calm PSU's nerves hopefully.. Every model but the Euro (naturally, since it has yet to run at 0z) places the IVT West of DC. We can all rest easy.
  21. Cobalt
    Add the ICON to that list.. really just the RGEM and Euro need to display that configuration for the GFS to have nailed that synoptic setup well in advance.
  22. Cobalt
    That looks like the footprint of the IVT? Before today's NAM runs the only model pulling it that far west was the GFS. The other guidance joining in on that would be its ultimate victory.
  23. Cobalt
    A lot of that comes down to the initial advance of precip before the coastal takes over. Few of the other models are giving that much of a thought, and from the looks of it the HRRR is actually wetter with that batch than even the GFS.
  24. Cobalt
    Orange'd before the 0z suite comes in
  25. Cobalt
    He's the CEO of an umbrella manufacturing company.. he's covered
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