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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Central Tim is only here to spend his Saturday night looking for reactions. Block, simple as that.
  2. Cobalt
    FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern.
  3. Cobalt
    Knickerbockerish
  4. Cobalt
    Pretty bold of you to use your one allotted daily post on that.
  5. Cobalt
    hmm.. SS energy is a bit more held back at hr 102 for the GFS compared to 18z.. might give it a bit more of a chance to separate from the northern stream energy Slightly healthier press of cold air as well..
  6. Cobalt
    I've heard the St. Louis subforum is bustling this time of year.
  7. Cobalt
    The trend so far this January has been for the NS to be modeled as faster when closing in range.. reel this one in!
  8. Cobalt
    Probably still a bit far west, gotta throw in a Dec 2010 for good measure
  9. Cobalt
    Definitely showing up more on the 12z EPS compared to recent runs.
  10. Cobalt
    Actually, the GFS seemed to be the best fit model for Jan 3rd. I was under the belief that this was due to the model's handling of the northern stream, modelling that piece of energy to be faster than any other guidance, which caused it to get out of the way faster and allow the SS shortwave to amplify. Someone can correct me on this, but I do definitely remember that it was showing glimpses of decent hits at ~60-72hrs out, but upped the ante with other guidance following suit shortly after.
  11. Cobalt
    Negative teens into PA Friday morning (on the mean, which should have its cold be even more muted). Couldn't ask for a better airmass.
  12. Cobalt
    Mhm, would probably give us some more wiggle room if it meets in the middle with the GFS/Canadian Also, that HP strength and positioning looks even better compared to 12z. Real stout one over top
  13. Cobalt
    Just a tiny difference..
  14. Cobalt
    A septuple phased system might be so amped that it loops around the globe a full time.. would still clip NW Virginia though
  15. Cobalt
  16. Cobalt
    Hmmm...
  17. Cobalt
    The differences in h5 are already incredibly apparent at hr 84. Check out GFS vs Euro for that timeframe. Those differences amplify very quickly afterwards
  18. Cobalt
    While that is inflated due to Kuchera, precip is pretty hefty too. If this falls in the low 20s with 850s well below freezing as depicted? Could definitely see ratios better than 10:1.
  19. Cobalt
    2.6" as of 5:45pm, right before sleet took over. All in all the storm definitely met expectations with several hours of SN/SN+. Feels like it's been ages since we've had a cold temps Colorado powder type event, and this definitely delivered. Oh, and that makes 12.9" of snow so far on the winter. Snowiest through Jan 16th since.. 09/10
  20. Cobalt
    1.0” as of 4pm. This marks the earliest that this location has had three separate 1” snow events since the 2013/2014 winter. Impressive stretch around these parts. .
  21. Cobalt
    0.6" as of 3:30. Nothing like watching cold powder fall at home with some bad football alongside it.
  22. Cobalt
  23. Cobalt
    6 years to the day...
  24. Cobalt
    Looks pretty enticing. NAO goes from - to + during this timeframe, so there's decent HA storm signal. Would probably also help offset how far east the trough is. Ensembles should be fun.
  25. Cobalt
    Euro looking to do something similar near hr 150.
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