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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    How's the event holding up for you in Chesapeake?
  2. Cobalt
    Winter storms bring out some of the most interesting characters on this board.
  3. Cobalt
    Jan 12-14 2019 produced 10" at DCA, it was long duration storm, albeit with light rates for most of the event.
  4. Cobalt
    March 2014 for sure, that was upper 60s in mid march sun. Cooled down pretty handily with dews crashing shortly after sunset...
  5. Cobalt
    Might be the weenie in me, but at this time during storms where we're on the SE fringe, we look to the HRRR to have a colder and more SE solution compared to general guidance. I definitely remember this for our sleet bomb last February.
  6. Cobalt
    Part of this could be due to the fact that 0z still had some rain from overnight impacting totals Ninja'd
  7. Cobalt
    3/17/2014 as well. The environment leading into the event is pretty similar to this, as temps peaked in the 60s the day before with precip onset after nightfall. Fairly different setup overall but that definitely surprised some.
  8. Cobalt
    3k NAM agrees
  9. Cobalt
    DT's first guess map. Bit of a banterish observation, but this seems to resemble some of the medium-sized events from Feb 1996, no? I recall seeing a few that bullseyed SE of DC in this fashion.
  10. Cobalt
    Here's a quick visual comparing the 0z Euro to the 0z EPS. It's hard to tell since it's overlayed on top of the EPS, but the big L represents the operational. A fair bit of lps NW of the mean, and of course there's the cluster well offshore, but that scenario seems to be dwindling with every model cycle.
  11. Cobalt
    Probably the most significant shift out of any non-meso compared to its 12z counterpart. Still not as amped as others, but takes the 1" snow line into DC.
  12. Cobalt
  13. Cobalt
    RGEM made a pretty substantial shift as well
  14. Cobalt
    Hey friends, I've been in a coma since January 23rd, 2021, and just woke up. I'm curious, did the storm depicted on the GFS work out? It seemed like a really huge bomb! I don't think it had much consensus, but the model seemed insistent on developing a storm that bombed out over the mouth of the Potomac.
  15. Cobalt
    What a time to be living in the ocean
  16. Cobalt
    One of the first cases of me understanding model bias was when I was told that the NAVGEM had an apparent "suppression" bias. This was back in 2017, but in every single instance where an image of the model has been posted, the storm is depicted more AMPED than other guidance. Is this me misremembering, or is this not a continuous occurrence?
  17. Cobalt
    Still waiting for his "1996" pattern from this time one year ago to come to fruition.
  18. Cobalt
    I like seeing that initial D5 system trending towards scooting out of here faster, it allows confluence to build ahead of that intriguing system..
  19. Cobalt
    Obviously it's entering LR territory, but 0z GFS drops a 1045hp into the Great Plains through hr 180.. some serious cold entering the central tier of the country after that D8 storm system. Seeds of change?
  20. Cobalt
    The Euro weeklies are.. not exactly the most enticing. Somewhat serviceable for the first week of January I suppose, but coupled with the incredibly persistent -PNA, it looks like the waning neg NAO results in the SE ridge really flexing its muscles after that point. Looks like a less favorable Atlantic has been the trend for the past few days in the LR.
  21. Cobalt
    Nice to see that pretty stout 50/50 signal too..
  22. Cobalt
    Pretty decent agreement among the Canadian, GFS, and Euro ensembles for the timeframe into very early Jan. Much like with the fabled D10-15 blocking pattern presented on the models in early Jan of last year, it seems like we'll have to wait a while for those effects to show up in the medium range, only this time we're looking at that pattern shift 2 weeks earlier.
  23. Cobalt
  24. Cobalt
    RGEM holds steady
  25. Cobalt
    For a time.. that'd be cool, and we'd be chilling. Eventually though, we'd have to face the cold hard facts.
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