Cobalt

RGEM would probably work for Monday. Brings in precip way sooner so temps don't have a chance to rise during the day, while 850s are barely hanging on.

Check out the SST anomalies off the Atlantic. Not sure how long they've been torching, but offshore temp anomalies are among the warmest on the planet atm. Would that also contribute to some of our airmasses being rather terrible, or at least less than ideal? Would make some sense given the dynamics of the banding in the Dec 16-17 storm, as well as the fact that every arctic airmass that was progged to reach us essentially danced around us. Even if they'd contribute just a tiny bit, as you've mentioned, +1C or +2C can take everything away, especially if you're already factoring in somewhat less QPF in these setups.

It's not a good day for the GFS bros. Checked WxBell and all the Para GFS runs before 12z today were completely wiped. Hiding the evidence much???

I'm not the one who needs DCA to outsnow IAD But yeah, you're in an exceptional spot for one more small event. I was lucky with this sytem basically clipping Richmond, but my one time was used on this event. I'm drawing dead to just a few outs.

Seems like we're down to the Canadian being the only one to show a hit for the Monday event. Unless progression speeds up 6hrs, it would probably be a bad setup anywho. Canadian has it hitting directly at midday with temps above freezing. Fun fun.

2.5" - 12/16-17. Fun WAA that had 1.5"/hr rates which turned to sleet/freezing rain. Icebox after the storm. 0.3" - 1/25. 5.1" - 1/31-2/2. WAA bust with 36 hours of light snow from the costal that saved the event. 2.5" pt1, 2.6" pt2. 2.2" - 2/7. Slush bomb on Super Bowl Sunday. Several hours of SN+ with marginal temps halting daytime accumulations. 0.3" - 2/10. 0.2" Sleet - 2/13. 0.9" Sleet - 2/18. QPF/Mid levels bust. Rates of .3"/hr sleet over about two hours. 0.3" - 2/22. Season Total: 11.8" (beats 17-18 at the very least.)

If there's one thing we're really good at, it's 2-4" March slush bombs that melt by noon. Beautiful to look at but no need to shovel.

I think you were pretty realistic for the most part. Even with that 2-5", that came with the assumption that a good bit of that zone would get .8"-1" of QPF, which was what basically every model had as it's output. Even if it's all sleet, that narrowly hits the bottom part of the forecast. I had an old page from the storm thread still open from Tuesday, and checking back in it, you were pretty clear about the potential warm nose issues. Regardless, yeah now we know why the forecast played out the way we did. One of the things that might've calmed people's nerves was the airmass we had going into the event, but of course that's only considering surface temps. I think most expected our fail scenario to be either warmer 850s, or less precip, but the two coinciding was not a recipe for a fun time.

Short Pump fringed

0.9" of pure sleet here in McLean. The sandy nature of it is at least interesting. Don't remember Feb 2007 so this is just about the most sleet I've seen in any given event. Pretty paltry total, but we knew what kind of fire we were playing with in this given setup. Still, I'm glad peeps in the NW sections of this subforum cashed in pretty well. Especially the far western members so far this season. I know the past few Ninas have screwed you guys pretty bad (especially 17-18), so seeing multiple events break your guys' way is at least a positive.

I didn't think it could get any worse

How about if it gets better? I don't see any other meso doing this, but the HRRR is insistent on the best dynamics/rates being at the tail end of the thump. This would probably be a rather fun sounding..

Bad trip maybe?

I think the issue lies in the fact that the only requirement to make an account on this board is that anyone who joins must at least have an iq above room temperature.

Local DCA min checks out.

Whatever they got up in Canada based on the unit of measurement. IMO it was too subtle, millimeters wouldn't have set off any alarms at all

Who was the one that said "most people here don't get along except when it snows, which is when people really don't get along"? Because yeah, seems like that right now. Would be nice if those people in question could only complain and argue.. 5 times per day? Yeah, that's a good number.

Not sure if this has been posted yet (and if so I can delete it, my apologies), but here's DT's final call. Seems pretty within the bounds of reason for most. 29/14 here. Hope everyone gets their fair share of snow! This stretch has had a lot of ups and downs, but it's nice that we willed a rainstorm our way for once

Which is telling considering your level of maturity. I get it though, this subforum still exists rent free in your head, even while you physically distance yourself in it. It's not bad to admit that you get a kick out of posting to this specific board. I mean, I'm feeding into it right now by responding to you (not for long though). Enjoy your scattered snow showers though!

This is rich coming from the poster who decides to spend his afternoon getting reactions from a forum he's not even within 500 miles of. Read the room, please. I'm not sure how that much negativity can manifest itself in someone such as yourself. Did the 24,000 preceding posts you've made not teach you anything?

33/13 in McLean. Painted the board and am ready to go.

Wild band of snow down there. Quite the insane stretch of winter for a good bit of the Deep South.

It tends to overdo cold past something like 36hrs, but within then it seems pretty grounded. Even the snow depth panel is ~3-5" for DC and points SW, which is pretty bullish for those types of panels. In the Dec 16-17 event, it initially went out of the gate being way too cold during WAA snow timeframe, but within 30hrs it continued to advertise that the initial thump would impact DC and immediate NW areas, while the NAM was still eroding the mid level cold much faster.

That would be one of the radar looks of storms where we're unsure if the yellows/oranges are sleet or blinding snow, but where it would still be an absolute precip blitz. Shades of Feb 20 2015 in that..

This is a pretty fun panel. Quite the area of 1-2"/hr rates with mid levels comfortably below 0 for all of DC and NW.