Cobalt

The Braves winning the World Series for the first time since October 1995 gives us a clear top analog for this upcoming winter #itshappening

It's all fun and games until DT comes in and gets in an all-out brawl with Ji

The mesos have been pretty bearish about sub-freezing cold at the surface tonight, but suggest tomorrow night might have a better chance

Yeah, I'm not too familiar, how would moderation/verification go for those calls? It would be a shame if someone joined pretending to be someone else, only to end up being deliberately disruptful.

This is entirely true, Zoom does seem like the best option.

Discord is always an option, as it has built in video calls, but it might be a bit tougher to set up/facilitate.

the ICON is insistent that we get some cold rain from the #snoreaster

CFS politely agrees

Otherwise known as "average temperatures" if we were still using the 1981-2010 averages.

Bad news for the Siberian snow truthers

First clown maps from our first real clown threat

They're multiplying. It's kind of fun to peer in every once in a while, but man does it get depressing fast.

I think last year will be the closest I ever get to the crown.. In any case BWI: 4.3" DCA: 2.7" IAD: 6.8" RIC: 3.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 2.0"

November 15 2018 was probably our last "substantial" November winter event. Nov 2014 was close too, but both had substantial gradients SE of DC.

There is talk of throwing a member into the currently erupting La Palma Volcano to try to salvage the winter . In all seriousness, not all too much, it's been a traditional extended summer fall for the subforum, with WFT futility to boot.

The most recent Euro weeklies backed off a bit on the west coast ridging, but no clear signal for a trough or Alaskan blue ball, so it's pretty ambiguous. Still interesting to see this far out, so far it does seem like we're emulating a bit of Oct/Nov 2017.

A good rule of thumb is "it will never snow again.. until it does".

Only took 80s in mid Feb to get to that point I'd take a repeat of that if the SSW event was just a month earlier.

Pretty informative thread. This also seems to follow a more typical frontloaded Nina progression, and once again, 17-18 pops up as an analog.

One thing to look out for in terms of seasonal trends for the future, the Canadian/Euro are persistent with having the upcoming troughing/cold get caught in the central US before reluctantly scooting east, delaying the cold wave. This allows for a bit of temporary ridging, or at least seasonal/slightly AN temps to persist longer in the East. The GFS doesn't do this, and in fact the GEFS has trended colder for the East within D8/9.

Probably the first truly "chilly" day of the fall season here. Temps were steady in the low 50s for most of the late afternoon, and coupled with the wind, it did certainly give a late fall vibe out there. Sitting at 48 right now.

This seems pretty ambitious but a chance that the NW parts of our subforum will have their first freezes in the next week or two.

If you're talking about in the cities, our "ideal" setup has probably happened, but perhaps it wasn't maximized. 2 ideas come to mind for me. 1 would be a PD2 2 pronged type system, but perhaps with a stout NAO or just something other than that one-off monster 50/50 low to maintain confluence and to prevent the mid levels from warming so fast, since that WAA was killer, and the areas that didn't switch to sleet easily saw upper 20s and even 30+". The 2nd would be something like Snowmageddon, but with a substantially cooler start. I believe DC got up to 37 or 38 during the start of the storm, and that easily cut down on totals. Drop temps 10-15 degrees and allow for greater than 10:1 ratios on the start, some areas reached 3"+ QPF so naturally, if ratios were better with similar or slightly greater precip, you'd expect a biblical result. I guess you could go off the deep end and assume that a '93 redux further east would do the trick, or maybe a '58 like stall with what the Euro showed for like 2 runs for Jan 31-Feb 2nd last year, but of course in the dead of winter rather than late March.

Not sure what happened here on TT. I guess it's trying to tell us that the picture for our upcoming winter is looking.. fuzzy?