Cobalt

I think the issue lies in the fact that the only requirement to make an account on this board is that anyone who joins must at least have an iq above room temperature.

Local DCA min checks out.

Whatever they got up in Canada based on the unit of measurement. IMO it was too subtle, millimeters wouldn't have set off any alarms at all

Who was the one that said "most people here don't get along except when it snows, which is when people really don't get along"? Because yeah, seems like that right now. Would be nice if those people in question could only complain and argue.. 5 times per day? Yeah, that's a good number.

Not sure if this has been posted yet (and if so I can delete it, my apologies), but here's DT's final call. Seems pretty within the bounds of reason for most. 29/14 here. Hope everyone gets their fair share of snow! This stretch has had a lot of ups and downs, but it's nice that we willed a rainstorm our way for once

Which is telling considering your level of maturity. I get it though, this subforum still exists rent free in your head, even while you physically distance yourself in it. It's not bad to admit that you get a kick out of posting to this specific board. I mean, I'm feeding into it right now by responding to you (not for long though). Enjoy your scattered snow showers though!

This is rich coming from the poster who decides to spend his afternoon getting reactions from a forum he's not even within 500 miles of. Read the room, please. I'm not sure how that much negativity can manifest itself in someone such as yourself. Did the 24,000 preceding posts you've made not teach you anything?

33/13 in McLean. Painted the board and am ready to go.

Wild band of snow down there. Quite the insane stretch of winter for a good bit of the Deep South.

It tends to overdo cold past something like 36hrs, but within then it seems pretty grounded. Even the snow depth panel is ~3-5" for DC and points SW, which is pretty bullish for those types of panels. In the Dec 16-17 event, it initially went out of the gate being way too cold during WAA snow timeframe, but within 30hrs it continued to advertise that the initial thump would impact DC and immediate NW areas, while the NAM was still eroding the mid level cold much faster.

That would be one of the radar looks of storms where we're unsure if the yellows/oranges are sleet or blinding snow, but where it would still be an absolute precip blitz. Shades of Feb 20 2015 in that..

This is a pretty fun panel. Quite the area of 1-2"/hr rates with mid levels comfortably below 0 for all of DC and NW.

Seeing what you guys get in snow events where us in the immediate DC area are walking between raindrops (pun totally intended) just to manage a meager snowfall is really encouraging me to look for places out that way once the time comes. Gotta deal with being on the outskirts of UHI hell for a few years though.. although some of my college choices are absolutely beautiful in the winter so outside of the DC area for just a little while might not be such a bad idea.

I think this precip distribution map smooths things out, but it's still a useful tool for overall ptypes.

In range if I'm not mistaken, GFS tends to dry up a bit, so this is nice to see. It's been a while since we've had any sort of system like that stay frozen.

You're in a pretty good spot for this event. Can't imagine you won't crack 30" on the year from this, and I'd imagine three 6" events in any given year is an impressive feat in a Nina, even out there. Enjoy!!

Its not a good run. It has .5-.6" QPF before 850s give way for your area.

Better update your Facebook page of this stunning new turn of events

Seems just really dry since not much sleet It's about on par if not a tiny bit wetter than 18z. I think this illustrates where that precip is going a bit better. Kuchera is being pretty funky, and since it's likely not gonna be 10:1, it's a good compromise to just extrapolate the snow precip side of the panel to ratios slightly lower than 10:1.

Euro would technically be in the NAM camp, but actually it just doesn't really have a wave 2, not much energy left behind. I guess if you split the difference between that and the NAM everyone's happy lol

Since you posted this, the HRRR got snowier, the SREFs got snowier, the 12k NAM got snowier/colder, and the 3k NAM will likely follow. I know you're banking on us to fail. We fail a lot, and probably will still manage to fail. We're good at that, but that's the thing. You can say that we will fail 48 hours before every event and you will likely end up right most of the time, but that's because of the climo we have to deal with! It's kind of what Judah Cohen and JB do, only in reverse and with less analysis/backing. Kind of pure modelology actually.

Here's a fun comparison! I know it's the HRRR at range, but most guidance has wave 2 impacting our area. HRRR at hr 46 Aaaand Euro at the same time. Just a tiny difference.

No Short Pump jackpot on DT's first guess.. not sure if that's something to be concerned about or not

KU 101 also suggests that our KUs storms don't come from a +AO, +EPO, +NAO, and -PNA regime in a mod Nina. The fact that there's even an outside chance of getting close to warning level snows within a vicinity of the metros is pretty impressive here.

Snow showers move through on the trailing end of the system. Would be nice to get an inch on top of the snow/sleet pack.