Cobalt

Hard to not like this signal as the pattern reloads. Plenty of moisture and cold on tap

This is a wild signal for cold on the ensembles this far out.. obviously even the individual members can pick up on snowpack induced cold, but considering the smooth mean and how the op/ensembles handle cold compared to the mesos.. bundle tf up during that time, dang.

Surprised nobody posted this. Looks pretty good to me

The RGEM stole them

850s look super iffy, but man that cold air is wedged good. As I said mentioning the GFS' mishandling of how our ridge shapes up, this has been what it's been shifting to for the past two runs. Just need that to continue...

The TPV is substantially different even out to just hr 90 compared to 6z GFS. More sheared/less consolidated through the Midwest. Doesn't give the chance for heights to increase as much after Friday which might set us up better for the weekend event. The GFS is not handing that feature well at all. Seems to be working out in our favor this time.

Ah, I was considering through 18z Friday, but I guess that's out of RGEM range at this point, and it's also not the main overrunning wave. My apologies.

6z EPS juiced up actually. Hard to tell total precip due to contamination from Tuesday, but it seemed like overall 0.7"-0.9" from Wed to Fri. Regardless, it seems like to be on the winning boundary for Wed/Thurs, we need the system to be just deamplified enough. Never easy here lol

The last time the Bucs won the Super Bowl decidedly happened to be during a pretty memorable winter for us In fact the only other NFC South team to win also was during a great wintry stretch, the Saints in Feb 2010. I remember having to drive to my grandparents' house to watch the game because we didn't have power.

More stout CAD signal during that time too. The GEFS has way more of a signal for precip during that time, but that’s probably because it has a few more members that follow their Op brother in trying to pump a ridge and having that storm ride that boundary. Seems like that’s been a bit of a bias with the Ops and ensembles this past week, so I’d imagine that the TPV taking its sweet time to descend into the US (and also having it be less consolidated along the western edge) has certainly helped potentially put us on the winning side of the boundary. Exciting times ahead. .

Interesting thing to note is that the Tuesday weak wave that is going North of us has slowed down somewhat on GFS guidance. Could this be why we're seeing lower heights in front of the overrunning event? That was a negative trend for the storm leading up to the 28th event, but maybe not in this scenario if it is leading to the storm being de-amplified

Heh, Euro brings back barney around day 8. Lows nearing 0 for most of the subforum. That's gotta be due to snowpack, but then again any substantial cold we've had as of late has been met by bare grounds, so a solid glacier keeping cold nearby would be a long-awaited sight.

Yellow orb has reared its ugly head. Snow still holding on, so that high QPF content is flexing its strength right now. Also on a less important note the sun-induced glare appeared at the worst possible time to mess up my Tetris game, but that's besides the point lol

I believe the snow depth factors in the melting a decent bit of the DC area will have from now until Wednesday. Kuchera doesn't cover the entire period on WxBell (mainly because it only has a 24 hour parameter and the total Kuchera accumulation factors in snow from 12z-18z today). It's still in line with 10:1 if not a tiny bit higher. Nice to have some cold in place for sure.

2.2" final here. More of a slush bomb than a paste bomb for sure. A couple of hours of SN/borderline SN+ failed to add much to accumulations since ~10:30am. I'd imagine the total would've been a bit higher if it had happened just a few hours earlier. Still a pretty decent storm for all things considered. Three 2" events so far and counting, pretty great winter so far!

You're becoming an adequate poster yourself All jokes aside, I appreciate the kind words, especially from a seasoned poster such as yourself. I've mentioned this before, but being scolded for my posts back in 17-18 really made me rethink my approach to this hobby. It helped that the winter in question was also one with numerous long/medium range busts, so with all of that bundled together, I've been doing my best to let the smarter posters share their info, and to pick up as much as I can from them. Another big aspect was learning to not get too into the digital snow aspect. Following that side alone makes this a depressing hobby. Your climo philosophy has certainly opened my eyes, and I appreciate you taking time out of this crazy year or two to pay a visit to us sick & twisted weather weenies. Posts like yours make this board worthwhile. Finally, to answer @NorthArlington101's question, I'm actually in the college application process right now. I'm likely not majoring in Meteorology, but it's up there with what I'm planning to do. I'd still certainly love to take courses covering those subjects, but time will tell if I want to make it the thing I predominately focus on in my college years.

Might be the best rates of the storm so far. Borderline SN+, this seems to be what it takes to combat marginal temps. 2.0” as of 10:30am but I could honestly see this band dropping another inch on top of what has fallen in the last 30 minutes. Oh, and officially 10” on the year!! .

0.3” in McLean as of 15 minutes ago, looks like snowballs falling out of the sky. All surfaces have caved. .

Yeah, it was awful. Not enough rain for rain enthusiasts such as me and you, so maybe next storm will be our chance to get that sweet downpour.

Right on schedule!

Pulling this from the day 3-7 thread but yeah the EPS looks super promising for that timeframe. I guess it depends on where the boundary sets up but with cold out in front it looks pretty favorable for at least a frozen event somewhere in our area. I'll take this precip mean from that lead and let all the events we have lined up distract until that timeframe, but it's hard not to like the signal for that. Snow mean looks pretty too, but obviously not worth posting this far out lol

Yeah, there's a decent difference compared to the 0z Euro wrt how the PV lobe presses down on the Central/Western US. It's a fair bit more east compared to 0z, and it's also more elongated (which I'm not sure if that had any effects with the ridge or surface depiction for us, but some of the more slightly strung out solutions for that had less of a ridge pump up so I'd imagine it's a positive). Good trends that were pointed out by the 6z EPS too. Would love to see that continue, but the ensembles haven't handled the PV aspect well.. at all.

Judging by the temp/snowfall means during this period, this might not be a bad thing depending on how much Arctic air from the PV lobe filters into our area beforehand. Seems like a fair bit of solutions try to get a storm to bully through some cold air that's already made it's way into the East at around D10-12. Clear CAD signal on the 0z EPS because of that too. Might be what it takes to avoid cold/dry.

DT's first guess map should make a fair bit of people happy.

Hah great idea until a weenie on tilt goes out of their way to make 4 different accounts just to lock someone out