Cobalt

Didn't we have a 4-12" event for a good bit of the area for Feb 20 2015? Also several events in the last week of Feb 2014. Feb 20 of 2019 gave 3-5" of heavy snow as well. There's no reason to think that snow climo just drops off a cliff after just a few days and picks back up again right after. It's probably been just a bit of bad luck and the fact that we've had a bunch of terrible Februaries in terms of snow producing patterns. March has actually been surprisingly good for the general subforum. Even with the past 2 Marches being lackluster, I believe that the metros are still running close to if not above average on snowfall departures in March for the 2010s, and that's considering all the hostility that limits significant accumulating snow in those areas.

Canadian also agrees with the RGEM idea. Moderate rain on Tuesday.

RGEM and NAM really havent agreed on much this week.. them being lockstep even at that range seems to be a deadly combo

Seems to be the system PSU mentioned that really hurts our chances of letting the HP funnel some colder air in. I think you can see the response from that system being much weaker on the NAM. Check out hr 84 for the NAM, core of the TPV cold is a fair bit farther west of the GFS yet the 850s are still more favorable.

I do believe we were dealt the worst hand leading up to this winter. November completely torched our cold air source, and while the Nina hasn't fully been in force, it certainly hasn't helped the Pacific. That is, until this past month. The biggest concern here is that we actually got PAC help with a couple pulses of EPO ridges, and we're still looking at the same short end of the stick. I may be going out on a limb here, but regardless of the strength of ENSO forcing, Ninas have certainly responded worse to the new base state we're in. Almost all Ninos in recent memory have had a much better response down in the metro areas, and the snow gradient has not been nearly as extreme as in Ninas. Maybe that's due to the PAC being less hostile and the southern stream lining up a bit more when cold was pushed into our side of the country, but I wouldn't be entirely certain about that.

For the Tuesday event.

That's more of an A/B hybrid I believe. More southern stream interaction than you'd expect from a Miller B.

That warm nose on the Euro is nuts... warmer up at 700mb than it is down at 925mb. Not an airmass we can get a stone cold beatdown with, but still seems wintry.

There's guidelines against not including ice measurements in seasonal totals, right? Might as well tally it up and say I have had 14 inches of "'winter" when those storms are all said and done.

Only if the Euro is wrong, which hasn't happened for a long, long time..

Yes, Feb 20-21 2015. One of my favorite storms as a young weenie. That was near the peak of our arctic blast, and so when precip arrived, temps were still in the mid teens for most across the area. Took a substantial amount of precip until it finally changed over, with 6"+ from IAD west, as well as a glacier on top of it. Pretty sure temps rocketed the day after, but the snowpack was encased pretty well. In fact some areas maintained that snowpack from then until after the March 5-6 snowstorm (another personal favorite).

RAP I'm assuming? At the very least it seems like some areas in our subform will get a shot at substantial precip on both wave 1 and wave 2. Was always thread the needle to get those areas to overlap, but at least most areas are in the game for something, even if minimal.

Wave four

He's put a hex on us for making him quit this board again. That can't be good.

Hm... Canadian remains all snow for NW of DC for this weekend's system. Somewhat light on QPF so that might be why

Canadian is pretty weak sauce wrt wave 2.. it didn't really go south, but it's just not as juiced. At the very least it seems like the jogs south have halted for that. Famous last words.

New GFS wildly disagrees lol. There's quite the difference in output for wave 1 to say the least

RGEM has it too, but maybe a bit slower to develop although 850s are substantially colder. Seems like a pretty interesting system for then. Meanwhile ICON is a complete whiff lol Although the ICON is a pretty substantial hit for next week. Looks to be the period of most interest, and lucky for us we have 2 systems to occupy our minds until then

12k NAM wants to keep scattered precip in the area from Friday until the Saturday system.. are we sure the Saturday storm isn't just wave 3???

Remember when the Euro/Ukie completely willed the Jan 28th storm away at medium range? Seems like the Euro went on a drinking binge after than to celebrate and now the two of them have split up. Euro might be on hard times right now lol.

I remember when the Euro showed 0" 72hrs out for NYC back for the Jan 31st storm. How did that work out lol. But nah, it won't head back in our direction because that's not the Euro way lol

Yup. Stronger confluence in Maine (that's been the trend since 0z today), overall less energetic shortwave. Pretty sure the Euro is now the farthest south with wave 2. Bummer.

Haha there's just a bit going on over the next 7 days