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Cobalt

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  1. Cobalt
    Just a quick question, but I recall there being a threat about go-to Jebwalk songs. I contributed in it, but now I can't seem to find the threat anywhere. Did it get deleted or something? Also no reason for bringing up jebwalking, not at all
  2. Cobalt
    Still running, but GEFS is certainly better. Weaker primary cluster/slightly south (Compared to 12z), earlier transfer on some members. QPF panels for costal aspect look improved. Not a full on cave but its getting closer. This would've been the GEFS progression in the Thursday threat where we knew what was gonna cave to what, that's for sure. Ninja'd!
  3. Cobalt
    GFS still decides to stall a band of light-mod snow over the DC area from the costal/ULL. Weak for sure, but it's an improvement in that department 10:1 because Kuchera is contaminated by pervious event in some regions. Ninja'd
  4. Cobalt
    In regards to last event, it took the GFS about 90 to 96 hours to completely cave. Before then it was losing support, much like what is happening now. Even then the solution doesn't seem to bad, all models agree on the WAA aspect.
  5. Cobalt
    Better than nothing I guess? Could very well top Monday's total lol (this Monday not next Monday, hopefully)
  6. Cobalt
    Here's the EPS through this part of the storm. Keep in mind this is in 10:1, and even in the EPS the mean is starting off the storm with temps in the upper 20s. Even in 10:1 it shows the potential for a pretty great WAA thump. Really nice that the other half (and more) of the snow mean for the general DC area comes from after this.
  7. Cobalt
    Cluster seems slightly SE of 6z, but I think that's because it dropped the outliers that take the lp all the way through the bay.
  8. Cobalt
    Would the banding be super important to the thermals? The Euro uniformly has mid 30s while the costal cranks, and I'd imagine that works super well for a paste bomb where it dumps 2" QPF, but not for light rates. Just hoping that thermals ease a bit once we get to mesos range
  9. Cobalt
    To start off.. this is my biggest takeaway from that run. This is all the snow that accumulates before mixing issues reach even EZF. If we get 6-8" before worrying about the costal.. that's a colossal win
  10. Cobalt
    Canadian ensembles juiced up compared to 0z.
  11. Cobalt
    @clskinsfanthat's 0z's Kuchera map. 12z looks pretty decent forum-wide through 132 and still snowing. Will post when those panels come out.
  12. Cobalt
    I've been following this aspect and have compared based on range. At this time (around 0z Sunday so 114 hours from Thursday onset), was when we had a pretty amped and great look on both the GFS and GEFS, and everything else was not as enthusiastic. Then in the following 24 hours the GFS caved. I'm not sure which met said that the GFS likes to make errors and then take 30 hours to correct, but let's hope this is one of those scenarios. Certainly something to watch.
  13. Cobalt
    Let's face it, is a Miller B in a La Nina really our best chance of cashing out on a flush hit HECS? My assumption would be no, but others still have the biblical Euro amounts cemented into their heads. Although the EPS is definitely more bullish than the GFS/GEFS has been as of so far, so the fact that our ground floor it seems is still 3"+, Im not sure we have a right to complain.
  14. Cobalt
    Most if not all of that comes from the initial WAA thump before the primary has a chance to wreck thermals. Obviously the GFS and Euro are still worlds apart with the actual costal aspect.
  15. Cobalt
    Im struggling to find the disaster.. Kuchera is even higher. Wasn't the GFS still showing a flush hit for Thursday this far out?? The ground floor of basically all guidance has been 3-6"..
  16. Cobalt
    Gotta fear those miller B ice storms!
  17. Cobalt
    The Euro is close to being a southern outlier compared to the EPS.. in intensity too it seems. the EPS did not like what the Euro decided to throw out tonight. Euro for reference
  18. Cobalt
    Mhm, the preicp mean for the costal aspect is improved too. In fact part of it might be because a cluster of means are decently NW during this time (disagrees with Euro), in fact 850s are borderline for part of that, but that's probably the least of our worries atm
  19. Cobalt
    This is actually NW of 12z lol Control is still a bomb too. Weird that the EPS went up pretty well compared to it's Op brother.
  20. Cobalt
    The EPS looks pretty similar to 12z, if not a tiny bit North. Certainly not a step back. I'd imagine that ensembles are pretty decent at this range.
  21. Cobalt
    GFS transfer still gets Norther Maryland into some of the costal snow.. let's see if it stalls there
  22. Cobalt
    Considering the worry of fringe.. that's a decent run. Still basically WSW snows for DC and west, Northern Maryland gets a great snow
  23. Cobalt
    The control is a full on Virginia special.. costal is pivoting bands up through DC at this time with temps in the mid 20s. Nuts
  24. Cobalt
    As far as I remember, the actual costal feature of that storm was found pretty far in, maybe like 3-4 days beforehand. Before that the WAA was looking like the main event, and it continued to trend warmer, putting DC out of the game before the costal part got latched onto.
  25. Cobalt
    18z snow mean.. Compared to 12z.. Precip for these panels sucks to compare because it's only 24 hour intervals on WxBell, but the snow mean should suffice There's a word for this but I can't seem to find it... anyone?
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