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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Shut up Chuck
  2. Cobalt
    Aaand just like that the Euro has basically diluted the torch that next week's cutter would've provided and instead the temperatures for that 1-2 day period are just slightly above normal, more akin to a typical post-storm warmup. That seasonal trend has been absolutely bonkers since the blocking regime entered the picture.
  3. Cobalt
    It's still honestly mind blowing that we're at the very least guaranteed snow from this lead. Haven't had that in ages. Furthermore, I had to take a step back and realize that as long as this doesn't completely fizzle out (less than 4 or 5" I believe), then this will be a top 3 La Nina snowfall in my lifetime. Not sure if that's extremely good or a testament to how pathetic La Nina winters have been so far this century.
  4. Cobalt
    Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed.
  5. Cobalt
    Upped the 12" probabilities for most of the subforum too. And obviously given the low resolution this won't pick up on the usual areas that get death banded
  6. Cobalt
    Jan 12-14 2019. I remember the NAM nailing that the storm would be juicier than progged and spit out some 10-12" totals like 2 runs before onset when the overall forecast was 3-6" and 4-8". 10" totals at both IAD and DCA, and of course cold smoke to boot.
  7. Cobalt
    The last WAA success was the Bob Chill storm
  8. Cobalt
    Our last double digit snowfall (for at least DCA and IAD) was the Jan 12-14 2019 storm, which was also known as the Bob Chill storm so maybe he'll bring the good mojo back!
  9. Cobalt
    He's back!!!!! Missed you @Bob Chill
  10. Cobalt
    Probably the last time where these ensembles are useful, but certainly juicing up the mean..
  11. Cobalt
    How does that compare to 12z? Seems like a definite improvement this run, earlier transfer and even slight more negative tilt? Would explain why the backside snow was somewhat improved compared to last run.
  12. Cobalt
    Actually looking better at that panel than 12z if I'm not mistaken. Also seems to be a tad bit more neg tilted? Interesting panels to come up.
  13. Cobalt
    https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I found it here.
  14. Cobalt
    This is the Canadian, correct? Not sure if this is the CMC or RGEM but it looks pretty favorable with the costal, banding essentially pivots over the DMV area and points eastward.
  15. Cobalt
    March 2013 too
  16. Cobalt
    ? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing
  17. Cobalt
    The highest the GEFS gets temps wise for DC is 40 degrees. The highest the EPS gets for DC temp wise is 31 degrees
  18. Cobalt
    Sending positive vibes his way here too. He can have a persona on this board, but deep down he's just like all of us. Hope he gets some time to himself and doesn't feel pressured to be active here or on his FB. Also to correct myself I accidentally reacted with the wrong emoji to the message.. just saw and freaked out and corrected it, just in case anyone got the wrong impression and even if nobody saw it.
  19. Cobalt
    ..That they live near Philadelphia? Or is this unrelated lol
  20. Cobalt
    Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think.
  21. Cobalt
    Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior.
  22. Cobalt
    Potentially not his first time on these forums
  23. Cobalt
    Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well
  24. Cobalt
    I think a lot of it depends on the ULL passing through and it's strength and intensity. PSU has mentioned the nuts ratios from a similar Miller B in Feb 9-10 2010, but I think that was cold smoke too with temps in the teens up there.
  25. Cobalt
    The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too.
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