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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    The GFS/GEFS never had it put together in the first place
  2. Cobalt
    So did the Para, but the Para is a Euro-like solution lol. Actually it keeps frozen much closer to us for a fair bit of the storm, wonder how close it is to a really good solution
  3. Cobalt
    The snow mean was pretty similar, but I still agree on what you said with the change in the individual members from the EPS. For our region the chances of 1" of snow went up, but the chances of 6" of snow on the EPS went down. I'd imagine this suggests that our ticket to success is the front end thump with way less members holding onto thermals
  4. Cobalt
    We're basically in 144hr EPS range, so that 6z EPS also gets a chance to gave to the gfs too
  5. Cobalt
    Onset is 138hrs, within 6 days! Still feels like an eternity considering how much models have liked to drop storms, but we might have momentum on our side, given that the GEFS got closer to a Euro solution, Canadian has stayed solid, and so has the Euro/EPS.
  6. Cobalt
    Pretty great precip signature at ~5-6 days out.
  7. Cobalt
    0z EPS is a great improvement.. awaiting snow means but def a fair more solutions like the Euro.
  8. Cobalt
    Way less lakes lows on the individual members, a step in the right direction for sure
  9. Cobalt
    Looks pretty healthy on the control
  10. Cobalt
    18z EPS at 132 Compared to 18z GEFS at 132 Spot the difference
  11. Cobalt
    I'm pulling a Ji here, but it's rather comical that the three models that seem to leave us void of snow (GFS, Para, Canadian) for the 26th threat all decide to paste us with snow for the day 10 threat. We're bringing the boulder up the hill again, let's see how it ends this time
  12. Cobalt
  13. Cobalt
    That seems like basically what we've had this January so far lol. And at the very least there's some cold on the continent when compared to this month. Like CAPE said, it can certainly bleed east back and forth as long as our NAO wants to play ball and hinder any SE ridge.
  14. Cobalt
    18z Para is a good hit for some of our area it seems.. What are the para's verification scores looking like?? :p
  15. Cobalt
    At the very least with the trough out west we have cold somewhere on our continent. Even with blues over us this past month cold air has been MIA.
  16. Cobalt
    EPS looks the best it has within 10 days. Can’t check what individual members show at the moment .
  17. Cobalt
    It certainly doesn't fringe you for 6z. It's still insistent on taking the initial first wave through as a somewhat sheared mess and then trailing up a more coherent system right behind it. Might be apparent on the GEFS too. Speaking of GEFS, it certainly has a fair bit less low pressures that cut for 6z compared to 0z. Hope that the trends there keep up.
  18. Cobalt
    Thanks for the clarification. I gave into their doom and gloom once I saw the GEFS trend towards bring the EPO positive wayyy sooner, but it also makes sense given that now we actually have some cold on our side of the Northern Hemisphere. Should give us a few shots even if the PAC goes to crap in early Feb
  19. Cobalt
  20. Cobalt
    Punting with 4 minutes left in the fourth with just 1 timeout? Ballsy. Not looking good for them.
  21. Cobalt
    It seems like the Para had a super wacky evolution actually. It drives a low through the great lakes around the 25th (earlier than the GFS does), and right behind it a wave impacts Central Virginia on the 26th. I guess the whole point with that is that the evolution of the storm isnt even close to set in storm yet.
  22. Cobalt
    Compared to 18z yesterday, the GFS is showing more frozen precip when the primary lp is up in Minnesota, rather than showing mostly rain when the low pressure was in southern Virginia during that 18z Saturday run.
  23. Cobalt
    Pretty great precip signature, now within 8 1/2 days lp clusters Some pretty great hits in there, the best snow mean since the fluke 12z run yesterday.
  24. Cobalt
    Sped up progression a decent bit too. Also lol at lp taking a trip from south Illinois to north Illinois
  25. Cobalt
    Our biggest battle has been actually getting storms within day 7 without them turning into a shredded mess on the models.. not worried about a day 9 model showing a rainer
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