Cobalt

Dumping

The wettest panel is.. quite the slouch to say the least

The first map Weather Will posted includes the storm on the 25th/26th.

^^^ This is my biggest takeaway from the 12z run. Lots of members get us on the board.

My biggest drive towards seeing/enjoying snow is mainly for my German Shepherd. He's nearing old age at around 12, and I can't stress it enough when I say that he absolutely loves snow. He must know that I'm into it too because he's pretty keen to when it's snowing, and trying to get me outside to join him. My fondest memory of that is the Blizzard of 2016 (happy 5th year anniversary to that!!). He experienced 09/10, but I was too young to remember a single thing from that winter (sorry for making PSU and others feel old, again :/). But here's a pic from that winter of me, my brother, and my German Shepherd Gus. Great times.

est panel out of them. Pretty great 12z suite so far.

It is honestly comical how an entire model sweet can take away two threats within 6 days and then bring them back basically a model suite later. Not often we lose 2 threats or gain them like that.

The QPF out of that run is absurd.. obviously not all snow for the costal plains but yeah, juicy.

Right where we want it >:)

CWG aleet

Icon starting off the 12z suite nicely.. had the first feature farther northwest which seems to have helped a fair bit.

Seems like that would be a good positive then, since that's also related to the Tennessee valley piece that PSU was talking about, yeah? I'm not sure, but your analysis seems to make sense.

Not smart enough to analyze this but just figured I'd provide this here

This weather stuff is easy.

The off hour EPS runs are still barely out of range (I completely forgot the storm is still 6 days out until seeing this), but it seems like the EPS is insistent on a good slug of moisture. Here's the last panel of the run 6z GEFS looks pretty similar at this time too, and that certainly didn't have a North Carolina jackpot look on it's means

Goodnight, everyone.

That's actually pretty great agreement lol, I'd imagine that the 18z EPS looked juicier because it had more members subscribing to that idea, while the GEFS is straying from going away from it's op. In terms of an actual big hit in NC like what the op showed, I could only see one run that had an actual decent swath of snow and hit that far south. Far more had no storm at all compared to that, or a storm but it jackpotted us or Central VA, or a super weak storm that dotted snow into NC/VA. Getting near that hr 150 threshold too so hoping more members pick up on the storm.

Wettest 24hr period on the 0z GEFS vs wettest 24hr period on the 18z GEFS You get the picture. Certainly no south trend on the GEFS.

The costal huggiest panel for the 18z GEFS vs 0z '\ Definite improvement I'd say.

The time that we actually have a blizzard on our doorstep (whether it be next week or next decade), it'll be fun to look back at what snow starved weenies we can truly be

Seems like the GEFS doesn't agree all too much with the GFS. It's encouraging when the ensembles take a step in the right direction despite the operational taking a step back. Precip/snow maps still rolling out

I think it's light teal

Canadian has our storm at least

It's funny how snow starved we are that now we have blatant trust issues even when a model shows a clear bullseye over us. PSU's (great) post about how suppression isnt the worry for the day 6 storm immediately flipped my mindset to worrying about being too far south for the goods lol.

When will the black arrows over the water arrive at my house??