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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    GEFS 850s compared to 6z during the storm. Certainly colder Here's the snow mean to go with it
  2. Cobalt
    Wow.. that system hitting a brick wall with the 50/50 low is a thing of beauty. Intensifies to a 978mb low pressure a fair bit offshore, but I'd imagine the precip would be more expansive than what is depicted. Great run for an op at this range though
  3. Cobalt
    And then a 996 off of Hatteras but the main slug of snow is in Pennsylvania :p. Although the main takeaway is that it has the storm. Interesting evolution too.
  4. Cobalt
    TT is running late for the GFS and I can't figure out a lot of the WxBell panels, but here's the GFS surface depiction at hr 165
  5. Cobalt
    It's interesting that while the Euro insists that DC's best chance of blue is the front end thump, meanwhile the GFS insists on crashing 850s on the backend and turning to snow then. Is it too weenie to ask for both of those scenarios to combine? :p
  6. Cobalt
    ICON suddenly trended warmer at 6z, but is back to a somewhat colder solution. It's a strung out mess however, yet it still manages a med range WWA snowfall for many
  7. Cobalt
    Euro whiffs on our 28th wave but has an interesting intensifying low pressure on the 31st at hour 240. Wonder if that's why the EPS has two distinct waves during that 4 day period.
  8. Cobalt
    WB 0z GEFS says see you next week...
  9. Cobalt
    18z EPS seems like it made another jog nw.. probably not gonna make many friends here
  10. Cobalt
    360 hours out, plenty of time for an east trend??
  11. Cobalt
    The GFS/GEFS never had it put together in the first place
  12. Cobalt
    So did the Para, but the Para is a Euro-like solution lol. Actually it keeps frozen much closer to us for a fair bit of the storm, wonder how close it is to a really good solution
  13. Cobalt
    The snow mean was pretty similar, but I still agree on what you said with the change in the individual members from the EPS. For our region the chances of 1" of snow went up, but the chances of 6" of snow on the EPS went down. I'd imagine this suggests that our ticket to success is the front end thump with way less members holding onto thermals
  14. Cobalt
    We're basically in 144hr EPS range, so that 6z EPS also gets a chance to gave to the gfs too
  15. Cobalt
    Onset is 138hrs, within 6 days! Still feels like an eternity considering how much models have liked to drop storms, but we might have momentum on our side, given that the GEFS got closer to a Euro solution, Canadian has stayed solid, and so has the Euro/EPS.
  16. Cobalt
    Pretty great precip signature at ~5-6 days out.
  17. Cobalt
    0z EPS is a great improvement.. awaiting snow means but def a fair more solutions like the Euro.
  18. Cobalt
    Way less lakes lows on the individual members, a step in the right direction for sure
  19. Cobalt
    Looks pretty healthy on the control
  20. Cobalt
    18z EPS at 132 Compared to 18z GEFS at 132 Spot the difference
  21. Cobalt
    I'm pulling a Ji here, but it's rather comical that the three models that seem to leave us void of snow (GFS, Para, Canadian) for the 26th threat all decide to paste us with snow for the day 10 threat. We're bringing the boulder up the hill again, let's see how it ends this time
  22. Cobalt
  23. Cobalt
    That seems like basically what we've had this January so far lol. And at the very least there's some cold on the continent when compared to this month. Like CAPE said, it can certainly bleed east back and forth as long as our NAO wants to play ball and hinder any SE ridge.
  24. Cobalt
    18z Para is a good hit for some of our area it seems.. What are the para's verification scores looking like?? :p
  25. Cobalt
    At the very least with the trough out west we have cold somewhere on our continent. Even with blues over us this past month cold air has been MIA.
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