Cobalt

Do I dare post the clown map? I guess I'll do it anyways. Note that the Euro for whatever reason gives immediate west areas of I-95 like .5-1" of snow for today for some reason, as well as 2-3" where it jackpots places for Wednesday. Kuchera ratios to be taken lightly obviously, but mainly using Kuchera in replacement for 10:1 due to the marginal DC temps.

Yup same here, I'm rooting for our western peeps to cash in big. They got a few nothingburgers during 16-17 and 17-18. A whole bunch of southern sliders in there that completely screwed them over.

Don't think anyone could've said it better than this. For the past few days, even when the GFS and even the Euro were showing decent outputs, we were still walking between raindrops. No 100% consensus, still NW solutions, and plenty of time for the typical NW jog. It's also just a product of the time of year, we're still a month and change away from prime snow climo. Just gotta pack up and move on, hopefully this pattern delivers for the people who have been snow droughted the most (just looking forward, the EPS has a bundle of lows centered around Indiana on Christmas day )

We do snow chasing rain good once every half decade here it seems. In recent memory 1/26/2011 and 3/5/2015 are prime examples. Although those share basically no similarities, 1/26 was ULL swinging in and 3/5 was an Arctic airmass. So yeah, we're screwed lol

Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support.

Yeah but that's not exactly of importance here. That works for Arctic airmasses with a guaranteed front end thump (President's Day 2016, Feb 21 2015 for example). Those were cold temp days with dews in the single digits for most before precip. Here we have an iffy airmass (albeit pretty good for December standards), and precip is running alongside temps. By the time precip is on our doorstep, we're already close to changeover regardless of CAD or not. If we had a mid-winter airmass with precip going directly under us then yeah I'd side with the CAD argument, but that doesn't matter here it seems

I think that's the best way to describe it. Whoever stays frozen is gonna bank on those rates piling on the snow. I'll roll the dice with the potential mixing, really excited to see the mesos get a hold of how that mixing will set up

Snowhole bingo card incoming???

2M temps and 850s seem basically identical, if not just super tiny changes. I'd imagine that's just noise, or maybe due to rates? Idk, but I guess it's a step back but not a Euro type step back. I'll take that track any day and hope the mesos get a good grip on the thermal setup.

bleh

Kuchera, for reference.

Here's a trend of the lps too, nice.

Was gonna say this before the 0z suite came out but forgot to, but thanks PSU and others for the incredible analysis about the storm itself, as well as analysis on med/long range patterns. You guys are what make this worthwhile, and it's amazing to learn from some of the best. Cheers!

Cutting with a 1033 high directly over top of us would be very 2020

I was the ripe old age of 0.5 at the time but 03-04 was frontloaded, no? Pretty sure there was a few good snows in December but not much else for the Mid Atlantic, from what I've seen.

True, but we entered NAM range thinking it would be a 2-4/3-5" event. All of the big trends were short range. What I meant was a storm that we could track all the way from med range knowing we have a good shot at WSW criteria for a decent chunk of the subforum. Kind of a niche way to describe it, but just thought it was interesting

fyp Speaking of which, is this the last time we've actually been tracking a potential WSW event in the medium range since March 20-21 2018? The Jan storm wouldn't count since all positive trends were basically short range. Even March 20-21 didn't verify, so maybe the last one since Jan 2016??

The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference?

Yup, seems like a good bit of ice solutions, but we're still in a somewhat decent spot

Taken with obvious med/long range grain of salt, but the trends on both the GEFS and the GFS have been really nice to say the least.

Kuchera, for reference.

Here they are. A couple that jackpot SE of DC, surprisingly, which inspires some confidence

in CAD we trust?

Interesting to see that CAD signature show up on multiple models

I mean, 57 runs until we see this verify, but yeah not the best scenario to be heading into. Hope DT's ideas of nina's lessening impact come to fruition in late Jan/Feb to circumvent this.