Cobalt

Woww, those death bands must be crazy up there!

3.6" total on the event. 2.5" with the initial WAA thump, as well as 1.1" so far today (not counting the massive sheet of ice I had to deal with when clearing my board, when did that happen?? Maybe like a quarter of an inch of solid ice). Pristine winter day out there. Hoping the ice preserves the snowpack until our polar blast next week. Also got to enjoy the snow with my German Shepherd. He honestly might be a bigger snow weenie than I am lol. Glad peeps in N Maryland cashed out big from this, you guys deserved it!! Hoping this is just the start of a memorable February

Fights over snow are... interesting to say the least. It's as if we're the last of our civilization fighting over a bastion of water, only in this case it's frozen water, and even that frozen water is pixelated, and even then the pixelated water is on a screen sent from a bunch of supercomputers a continent away.

I was actually thinking.. although that was a reverse bust, it feels like most of our good patterns this past decade have been ushered in by busted forecasts. Feb 2014 started off with the Jan 21 storm being forecast as a 5-8" storm, but fell short near and around DC. Feb 2015 started off with the Feb 14 storm where most areas were forecast to get 5-10" but a nasty dry slot cut things off.. heck even March 2013, managing to get a near WSW level event in late march is impressive, and of course that month started with Snowquester. Perhaps we need to understand failure to get a taste of success around these parts.

It's borderline comical at this point. The Euro sees our Miller B woes and throws us a bone with a Miller A all the way out at day 7.. might follow the Bob Chill way and just unsubscribe from WxBell and focus on stuff within 3 days lol. But hey, regardless of what falls today through Tuesday, we had a tracking period where a storm threat never lost its grip from 7 days out and.. we got the storm! Just needed a few things to go right to get more, but with the grass covered it's still looking pristine out there.

1.9” as of 10:15am here in McLean. Rates a bit higher than they were this past hour, but still somewhat light snow. Can’t complain though, getting most of a January’s worth of snow in one storm certainly isn’t a gut punch, even if it isn’t the 1’+ costal we were all hoping for. Meanwhile Gus absolutely loves it, so if he’s happy I’m happy. Kicking around the ball for him while powder accumulated makes this all worthwhile. .

NWS updated totals and extended the 6-8" line a bit south of DC, and lowered 8-12" totals to the immediate north. Still a pretty decent event Remember that regardless of what falls, anything above 4" for the metro area is still one of the biggest La Nina snowfalls so far this century! Enjoy it everyone!! Certainly doesn't look to be our last threat of the year either. Anyways, goodnight, hoping to wake up to the WAA snows arriving at our doorstep

wb IAN!!

I remember him mentioning that the full moon and strong costal combo would boast well for a major DC/Baltimore snowstorm.. For 1/4/18. I jumped off the team Roger ship then, but his forecast verifying would surely bring me back.

One of the mets who doesn't post here all that often chimed in back in mid January and mentioned how most of the Canadian airspace was dominated by low pressure systems, which was in part causing a majority of Jan to perform a rug pull. Just checked the EPS and it's an incredible reversal, HP train all the way from the source. Seems like the GEFS isn't as cold and dry as it was showing 1-2 days ago either, looks pretty EPS-like. Fun times ahead!! Also the EPS brings back our constant barrage of 50/50 lows and spins them around from day 8 onwards

No please, it's already shifted Northeast from 12z just by the slightest thought of you returning to NoVA. Think of the weenies dude, gotta take one for the team.

Shut up Chuck

Aaand just like that the Euro has basically diluted the torch that next week's cutter would've provided and instead the temperatures for that 1-2 day period are just slightly above normal, more akin to a typical post-storm warmup. That seasonal trend has been absolutely bonkers since the blocking regime entered the picture.

It's still honestly mind blowing that we're at the very least guaranteed snow from this lead. Haven't had that in ages. Furthermore, I had to take a step back and realize that as long as this doesn't completely fizzle out (less than 4 or 5" I believe), then this will be a top 3 La Nina snowfall in my lifetime. Not sure if that's extremely good or a testament to how pathetic La Nina winters have been so far this century.

Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster) I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed.

Upped the 12" probabilities for most of the subforum too. And obviously given the low resolution this won't pick up on the usual areas that get death banded

Jan 12-14 2019. I remember the NAM nailing that the storm would be juicier than progged and spit out some 10-12" totals like 2 runs before onset when the overall forecast was 3-6" and 4-8". 10" totals at both IAD and DCA, and of course cold smoke to boot.

The last WAA success was the Bob Chill storm

Our last double digit snowfall (for at least DCA and IAD) was the Jan 12-14 2019 storm, which was also known as the Bob Chill storm so maybe he'll bring the good mojo back!

He's back!!!!! Missed you @Bob Chill

Probably the last time where these ensembles are useful, but certainly juicing up the mean..

How does that compare to 12z? Seems like a definite improvement this run, earlier transfer and even slight more negative tilt? Would explain why the backside snow was somewhat improved compared to last run.

Actually looking better at that panel than 12z if I'm not mistaken. Also seems to be a tad bit more neg tilted? Interesting panels to come up.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I found it here.

This is the Canadian, correct? Not sure if this is the CMC or RGEM but it looks pretty favorable with the costal, banding essentially pivots over the DMV area and points eastward.