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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I can remember October 1976 being one of the coldest on record as was November and the Winter became the famed frigid Winter of 77. The following Winter had an early severe cold blast that brought snow to even the lower elevations on the 13th of October. However, the rest of the month was rather mild as was early November . Things changed abruptly after the 20th and Dec thru mid March was cold and snowy. So, there are exceptions to the cold October =mild winter, cold November =cold winter rule. Of course, we are in a different era climate wise now and of all the years of record, odds favor the cold November cold Winter rule .- 574 replies
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- early winter
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Picked up 1.07" here from a Tstorm yesterday. Broke 22 day dry streak.
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Picked up 1.07" here in a Tstorm yesterday so, broke the 22 day dry streak.- 574 replies
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We pretty well knew this would happen, unfortunately. -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
Daniel Boone replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, kmrx was wrong on the heaviest axis 2day as it has setup through seky/swva. .93 here as of 2:30 pm...some areas along the border already at 1.5+ inches 2day alone. -
Agree with causal and effect. However, in the end the MJO Rooster ruled the Roost. IF that Rooster would decide to roost in a more favorable area we should still get things lined out for a decent snowstorm... or 2. Late Feb. and March may be the saves.
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Zilch here as of 9:20 am. Heavy band that moved up the great Valley missed to my south and east. Bummer !
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'm seeing into now. As it stands, the Lee County Airport Station west of Jonesville is down and has been since last summer. So, Temps are being projected by models from topograhical smoothed elevation plots and closest Stations. The plots are basically smoothed more on some than others, as is evident. Also, Downsloping is a little overdone as spillover upslope snow survives into the western Valley sections and then disappear further east. Also, there is a somewhat upslope flow from the ssw that is never modeled of which affects precip totals as well. Snowfall reports come from my data and probably the Pennington gap water plant, of which is a terribly location as it is 1 mile south of town right on the banks of Powell river at a much lower elevation than most of the county. Also, that station has a proven history of the workers there reporting erroneous data. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Exactly my thoughts. Apparently not very precise or as you said about the borders. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I don't know what has been done to some models lately or what data is being ingested but, they have been forecasting temps too warm for Lee County and underforecasting precip. Snowfall projections are wrong as well, generally too low. Even the once decent (Euro model) for the area is doing it now, as well. -
Wound up with a quarter to half in the Jonesville, Va area.
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Good analysis and prognostication PSUhoff. We were and have been so close to having a great Winter. Now, so close to having a great ending. Will the powers that thwarted what was on track for a great Winter thwart the ending as well.?..My guess is yes to some degree. One other factor that may play a role in fighting against us is the rising + QBO. . Although, probably not much weight from it as correlation rather weak.
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Mid section has had a great Winter and looks to continue, even if we do get in on it. -
Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to nj2va's topic in Mid Atlantic
Sorry for late re. Yeah, for the most part unexpected , although, a couple of models showed some. -
On a side note, several accidents were reported in Lee County.
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Thanks man. Sloppy now as melting taking place and lt. Rain has begun.
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Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to nj2va's topic in Mid Atlantic
Picked up 2.5 " heavy, wet snow here in central Lee County, Va. -
Picked up 2.5 " heavy, wet snow here in central Lee County, Va..
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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
Daniel Boone replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
The MJO has been and may still be the thorn in our side as it's now projected to go back into warm phases. Hopefully HL blocking will kick in and Trump or mitigate it's effects. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Agree 100% in that we were in line for a wall to wall cold Winter if the MJO had not pulled it's high jinx. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
That blasted MJO has been and may still be the proverbial thorn in our side. Hopefully, forecasts are wrong concerning it. Even if not, with high lat blocking and Nino affect kicking in, it may not be so much a bad thing as it may help keep systems from being too suppressed. Winter 78-79 comes to mind although it was more neutral enso. The entire continental US was cold and snowy except extreme SE and Maine of which was slightly milder than avg. there. Strong HL blocking ruled the roost. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I've only recorded 2 days of below zero highs in my 40 years of observations. Jan. 21 1985(low of -27) and Feb. 5 1996(low of -21) Each with -4 degrees. One zero high ; Christmas 1983. -
Just basically flurries here 5 to 6 a.m.. a quick band of snow came thru around 9:30 this morning that ended as sleet. Didn't stick ad temp was upper 30's .Dp was upper 20's, explaining how this happened.
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The January 94 storm produced record amounts of snow in Kentucky with over 2 feet reported in Maysville. Rain changed to snow rather abruptly during the afternoon here in Lee County with 7 inches accumulated. Harlan, Ky had 10. A steady increase as you went north in Kentucky. A side note, Mccreary and Wayne Co. KY were big winners in the Feb. 98 storm with 2 feet reported.